2022 Genesis Invitational Golf Betting Picks

This week, Joe Cistaro previews the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 Genesis Invitational. Here’s a closer look at odds across online sportsbooks.

After a hot start to the season, golf delivered a heaping slice of humble pie last week.  The Phoenix Open – while extremely entertaining – was terribly disappointing for me as my card, and DFS lineup fizzled.  Talor Gooch and Hideki Matsuyama did just enough to stay within range for Sunday’s round but never really got anything going.  The Waste Management Phoenix Open is good fun, though.  Congratulations to Scottie Scheffler on his first victory.  I look forward to this even next year as the field continues to get stronger and stronger.  

2022 Genesis Invitational Odds

At the time of this writing — February 16th — you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.  The below list features all golfers with odds shorter than 40/1.

The top 10 players in the world will play in this event in yet another absolutely stacked field.  Collin Morikawa makes his first appearance since the Sentry TOC and Rory McIlroy makes his first appearance on US soil in 2022.  The top of our odds board is particularly loaded for Tiger’s Genesis Open at Riviera.  

Max Homa looks to defend last year’s championship at 40/1 odds.  Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm have spent this entire season lurking within the top 5 or 10 of every tournament.  Will this be the week where one of the short golfers clear the board?  Will we have a fourth consecutive first time winner?  The course will likely present the greatest challenge for golfers thus far on schedule.  

Genesis Invitational Betting Preview

• Course: Riviera Country Club
• Date: February 17 – 20
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,322
• Greens: Poa Annua
  

Being an invitational now, the Genesis features a 120-player field.  Therefore, greater than 50% of the field will play on the weekend.  With the star quality involved, picking outright bets will be tough.  That said we might see a bit of an uptick in 6/6 lineups on DraftKings given the smaller field sizing.  

The course is lined with kikuyu grass meant to penalize players that do not hit the fairway.  Speaking of fairways, players will struggle to find them this week.  Ball striking is going to be very, very important for modeling purposes as finding fairways and greens proves challenging at the Riviera Country Club.  A longer course, being long off the tee will also help, especially if hitting out of a bad lie in the rough.  

Speaking of missing greens, SG: ARG is going to be a very important statistic this week as we shouldn’t see players scoring in the -20s.  Bogey avoidance could be considered, but players that are very comfortable around and on the green cannot be ignored.  There are corollaries drawn with success at Riviera and Augusta National or Quail Hollow.  Both courses demand an excellent short game – feel free to check the success of players at these venues as part of your research.  

Finally, six Par 4s rest in the 450-500 range.  Max Homa, Dustin Johnson, and Bubba Watson all led the field in strokes gained for this distance when victorious over the last few years.  JB Holmes ranked third in this category when he won the event in 2019.  

When considering some outright picks, I am going to focus on strokes gained on ball striking, around-the-green, and the aforementioned P4 450-500 length.  The length of the course leaves players often 150-175 from greens, so, I will add that proximity category in, as well.  Let’s fill out this week’s card.  

Unless stated otherwise, all strokes gained statistics are reference to the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour

Golf Betting Picks

Patrick Cantlay +1400 (FoxBet)

Well, I took a stance last week and went up the board to start my card with a stud.  Since it worked so well last week, I am going to replicate my approach.  Patrick Cantlay rests second in odds for all of our sports betting markets.  

Cantlay, in my opinion, does not need any amount of explanation.  His four starts this season have amounted to four T10 finishes with his last ending in a playoff against eventual winner Scottie Scheffler.  He sits inside the top twenty of nearly every strokes gained category I am considering this week, with the exception of SG: Approach.  Over his last fifty rounds, Cantlay ranks first in strokes gained on Par 4 450-500 yards.  

I don’t need to go much further here.  The argument is the price.  His odds are very short.  If you want to join me, grab his price at FoxBet at 14/1 before it moves.  I am going to bet 1.5 units on his outright.  

Cameron Smith +2500  (Bet365)

Short game is very important at Riviera as you will not hit every green in regulation.  Look no further than our short game savant, Cameron Smith.  

Smith finished 4th at the Genesis last season and seems fit for this course.  He added some distance at his win in Hawaii and has the type of game that fits this course very well.  Like Cantlay, Smith excels in Par 4 450-500 yards, ranking first over his last 36 rounds in strokes gained. 

An exceptional putter, Smith has the game to stay in contention when pars need to be saved.  The price at Bet365 is perfect for a one-unit bet.  Let’s add him there.  

Will Zalatoris +3300 (Bet365)

The trend of first-time winners is not going to end.  Right?  

Will Zalatoris has spent the last couple of weeks off after a bout with COVID-19.  His most recent tournament ended in a playoff against Luke List when Zalatoris just missed a birdie putt on 18 to clinch his first victory on tour.  

Zalatoris fits the Par 4 450-500 theme, ranking third in the field over his last 36 rounds.  He performs very well on approach and somehow ranks second in Bogey Avoidance despite his putting woes.  

While I am a bit worried about the recent illness, this number feels pretty good for a burgeoning star-in-the-making.  Zalatoris finished 15th last season at this event.  Here’s hoping he pays off his first winning ticket.  I will spend ¾ of a unit at Bet365. 

Patrick Reed +9000 (DraftKings)

File this under a betting odds play.  Patrick Reed at any tournament for 90/1 does not feel right.  While his recent form has been pretty bad, Reed is a grinder and certainly a fierce competitor. 

Over his last 100 rounds he ranks 16th in SG: ARG.  He is known as a short-game specialist.  His success at Augusta National and Quail Hollow bodes well as he handles challenging green complexes very well.  All in all, I want a lot of value for very little.  Patrick Reed at 90/1 feels like he merits a ticket.  A quarter-unit on DraftKings Sportsbook will do.  

2022 Genesis Invitational Betting Card

On Twitter, I added a couple of additional outright bets to my betting card and then indulged in the dangerous fruits hanging off of the First Round Leader tree during last weekend’s Phoenix Open.  All in all, I spent 4.5 units on a completely disastrous losing card and recognize that mixing in more matchups, T20s, etc… is necessary for long-term success.  We could potentially have some additional content on props in the coming weeks.  

2022 Profit in Units:  +58.75 units_

Follow me on Twitter at JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.  Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.