Giants vs. Cardinals Odds, Pick and Prediction (5/15/22)

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Giants vs. Cardinals odds, previews each team, and delivers a free pick for Saturday’s game. Make sure to use our BetMGM bonus to get a free bet up to $1000!

Giants vs. Cardinals Odds

Sunday night, the San Francisco Giants and the St. Louis Cardinals will conclude the fifth week of Major League Baseball action when they do battle on Sunday Night Baseball at Busch Stadium. Entering play, the Giants are 20-13, sitting one game out of first place in the National League West division. The Cardinals are 18-15 and in second place in the National League Central division. Looking to close the week on a high note, San Francisco will send Carlos Rodon to the hill, who will be opposed by Adam Wainwright. Oddsmakers anticipate a Giants victory in this one, pricing them as -135 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

San Francisco Giants

Wearing a new uniform for the first time since 2015, Carlos Rodon has not skipped a beat after a breakout 2021 campaign. Rodon enters play today with a 1.80 ERA, 2.01 xERA, and a 1.21 FIP. He is striking-out a career-best 39.3 percent of opposing hitters while simultaneously sporting a career-best 0.91 WHIP. Since joining the Giants, Rodon has increased his fastball and slider usage while completely eliminating his changeup. The addition of a curveball as a change-of-pace third offering has proved useful as well–holding opposing hitters to a putrid .145 wOBA. Rodon is as close to matchup-proof as there is in the league right now.

Though the Giants were kept off of the scoreboard yesterday, this is still one of the most balanced offensive attacks in all of baseball. Across the last seven days, San Francisco ranks 6th in OPS, 1st in walk percentage, and 1st in strikeout percentage. Even on days when this group fails to get a key hit with runners in scoring position, they will make life extremely difficult on the opposing starter.

If there was one silver lining in yesterday’s defeat, it is that Manager Gabe Kapler was able to save his bullpen. Prior to first pitch tonight, no member of this arm barn has thrown in back-to-back days since Wednesday, and John Brebbia has thrown the most pitches of any reliever over the last three days–with a measly 23 pitches.

St. Louis Cardinals

In his age-40 season, Adam Wainwright owns a 3.18 ERA, 3.60 xERA, and a 3.39 FIP through six turns in the rotation. He continues to limit loud contact, ranking in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and the 93rd percentile in hard-hit percentage so far this season. More concerning is declining velocity and spin rates compared to 2021. The Giants could also create issues for Wainwright by stacking left-handed hitters in the lineup in this one, considering Wainwright’s 4.11 FIP and 1.50 WHIP against lefties in 2022.

The Cardinals offense is mediocre overall, but they are anything but mediocre against southpaws. So far this season, St. Louis ranks 2nd in OPS, 1st in ISO, 15th in walk percentage, and 5th in strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching. Certainly, Rodon will be the toughest left-hander that the Cardinals have faced this year, but they are still capable of doing damage this evening.

St. Louis could have an issue in the late innings in this one if they are unable to build a sizable early lead. Giovanny Gallegos, Nick Wittgren, and Genesis Cabrera have each appeared in two of the last three days. Ryan Helsley and Andre Pallante threw 17 pitches or more on Saturday. Fatigue and availability are real concerns for this unit.

Free MLB Betting Pick For Today

Not all left-handed pitchers are created equal. Although the Cardinals have impressive metrics against southpaws in 2022, those numbers have been compiled against pitchers far inferior to Rodon. Expect Rodon to have another outstanding performance in this one, and for the Giants’ bats to do enough against Wainwright to come away with a win.

PICK: Giants Moneyline (-135)