Guardians vs. Angels Odds, Pick and Prediction (Mon., April 25)

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Guardians vs. Angels odds, previews each team, and delivers picks and predictions for Monday night. Use our BetMGM promo code to get a $1000 free MLB bet!

Guardians vs. Angels Odds

Tonight, the Cleveland Guardians and the Los Angeles Angels will begin a four-game set at Angel Stadium in Anaheim. Entering play, the Guardians are one game below the .500 mark, but only a half-game out of first place in the American League Central division. The Angels are 9-7, sitting one game behind the Seattle Mariners for first place in the American League West standings. On Monday, Cleveland will hand the ball to Shane Bieber, who will be opposed by Michael Lorenzen. Oddsmakers anticipate the Angels securing a win this evening, pricing them as -115 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup and MLB betting tips as we try to find value at sportsbooks tonight.

Cleveland Guardians

Shane Bieber has been nothing short of elite through his first three turns in the rotation for the Guardians in 2022, with a 2.25 ERA, 2.86 xERA, 1.65 FIP, 27.6 strikeout percentage, 5.2 percent walk-rate, and a 0.69 WHIP. Still, it is worth noting that his three outings have come against the Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds, and Chicago White Sox–each of which ranks 25th or worse in OPS against right-handed pitching in the early going this season. The primary concern for Bieber is that his velocity has been down compared to recent campaigns. The result has been a significantly worse whiff percentage and far fewer batters chasing out of the strike zone. 

Cleveland’s offense has surpassed nearly all preseason expectations through the first month of the year. Against right-handed pitching, the Guardians rank 2nd in OPS, 3rd in ISO, 29th in walk-rate, 11th in strikeout percentage, and 2nd in wRC+. Of note, Steven Kwan, batting .341 with 7 RBI this season, is day-to-day for Cleveland after exiting Sunday’s affair against the New York Yankees with a hamstring injury.

Manager Terry Francona should have all of his bullpen arms available in this road game. Sam Hentges cleaned up in relief on Sunday, but Emmanuel Clase, Bryan Shaw, Nick Sandlin, and Trevor Stephan have each thrown 21 pitches or less across the last three days. 

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Los Angeles Angels

Michael Lorenzen enters action this evening with a 4.82 ERA, 3.09 xERA, and a 4.91 FIP through three starts. He also owns a 24.3 strikeout percentage, 5.4 percent walk-rate, and a 0.86 WHIP.  However, his path to these numbers has been far from linear–delivering six innings of one-run baseball in his first outing, before being chased in the 4th inning in his subsequent start against the Houston Astros. Lorenzen’s sinker usage has skyrocketed from 9.8 percent in 2021 to 35.7 percent so far in 2022. Outside of the 2020 pandemic-shortened campaign, Lorenzen’s sinker has always been one of his better pitches. There is some optimism that the change in pitch-mix will lead to better results, but bettors will need to see more consistent results from him before being willing to trust him with their money–especially against left-handed batters. Lorenzon has faced 13 lefties so far this season, allowing a .417 batting average and two home runs, which has translated to a 15.51 FIP–a problematic theme that has been present throughout his career.

Against right-handed pitching so far in 2022, the Angels rank 4th in OPS, 1st in ISO, 7th in walk-rate, 19th in strikeout percentage, and 4th in wRC+. Mike Trout is third in all of baseball, with a 1.141 OPS in 42 at-bats. Joe Adell has a .935 OPS against right-handed pitching so far this season as well. Shohei Ohtani and Jared Walsh have a .765 OPS and a .754 OPS in such situations, respectively. 

Los Angeles should have their closer, Raisel Iglesias, available this evening if needed, considering that he has only thrown twice in the last five days. However, Oliver Ortega, Jimmy Herget, Aaron Loup, Archie Bradley, and Austin Warren would all be appearing for the third time in four days if inserted into the game today. 

Guardians vs. Angels Pick 

This is not a spot to hammer Cleveland. After all, they have scored two runs or fewer on eight occasions already this year. There is also the concern that Cleveland had to fly across the country yesterday, landing in LAX at 9:17 PT, per Sports and Aviation. Still, Cleveland has the better starting pitcher in this matchup and a far more rested bullpen. If the Guardians can manage to put a few runs on the board, they should be able to pull the upset this evening.

• PICK: Guardians ML (+104)