Heat vs. Celtics Expert Pick And Prediction For Today (5/17/22)

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Heat vs. Celtics odds, previews each team, and delivers picks and predictions for Tuesday. Use our PointsBet promo code to get a $2000 in free bets!

Heat vs. Celtics Odds And Prediction

On Tuesday, the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat will battle in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston is coming off of a thrilling seven-game series against the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. Miami is riding high after closing-out the Philadelphia 76ers in six games in the previous round. In this matchup of two teams fighting for a trip to the NBA Finals, oddsmakers anticipate a tightly-contested affair, pricing the Heat as 2-point favorites on the spread.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the data before revealing our free betting pick on the game.

Boston Celtics (+2)

In 11 postseason games, the Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA with a +7.4 Net Rating. Boston’s success has largely been driven by their defensive prowess, allowing only 105.2 points per 100 possessions. They have done an exceptional job defending the perimeter, holding their opponents to 32.9 percent from beyond the arc. If there is any discernible weakness for this group ahead of their matchup with Miami, it is their inability to rebound the basketball effectively. In seven games against the Bucks, the Celtics were outrebounded six times–twice by double-digits. Rebounding could once again be an issue for Boston against a Miami roster that is tied with Milwaukee for the 4th-best rebound percentage in the NBA during these playoffs.

Fortunately, the Celtics have two bonafide stars on their roster, who are capable of keeping them competitive on a nightly basis. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have combined to average 50.5 points per game through the first two rounds. Marcus Smart and Derrick White are two of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Al Horford and Grant Williams have played exceptional defense inside of the three-point arc for Ime Udoka, while simultaneously operating as surprise offensive weapons. Payton Pritchard cannot be overlooked as a spark-plug off of the bench. Despite some matchup disadvantages, the Celtics have more than enough talent to put up a good fight in this one.

Miami Heat (-1.5)

In six home games so far this postseason, Miami is undefeated with an astounding +17.2 Net Rating. Similar to the Celtics, Miami has asserted themselves most forcefully on the defensive end of the floor–holding their opponents to 100.5 points per 100 possessions, which is, by far, the best mark in the league during the playoffs. The Heat defense could prove particularly problematic for the Celtics in this round on the perimeter. Boston has attempted 39.1 three-pointers per game across their last 11 contests, second only to the Dallas Mavericks in that stretch. Open looks could be hard to come by for the Celtics against a Heat defense that has held opponents to a stifling 26.9 percent from beyond the arc at FTX Arena during these playoffs.

Kyle Lowry is listed as out for Game 1 on the official injury report, but his absence is far from a death sentence for Miami. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Heat still rank in the 70th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 82nd percentile in defensive efficiency with Lowry on the sidelines this postseason.

Free Betting Pick For Today

Though there is plenty of offensive talent on both of these rosters, the defense is likely to take center stage on Tuesday. This postseason, the Celtics and Heat rank 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in defensive efficiency–each allowing 105.2 points or fewer per 100 possessions. Additionally, both teams have played at a pace of below 97 possessions per contest. Expect both teams to struggle shooting the ball from beyond the arc and for it to result in a lower-scoring affair. Take the under.

• PICK: Under 204 (-110), Multiple Sportsbooks