Honda Classic PGA Betting – Win, Top 10, Longshot Golf Best Bets

Justin “STLCardinals84” Van Zuiden is a lead DFS and betting analyst for RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds. In this weekly preview, STL will run over his favorite golf bets in various betting markets.

Hello again, everyone! We got this piece off to a great start last week by hitting a +390 and a +360 bet, making the bets extremely profitable if you used everything in this article, especially since the Fitzpatrick golf odds markets were voided upon his withdrawal due to illness. Let’s keep the good vibes rolling into a new week!

This week brings us the 2022 Honda Classic at PGA National, as the PGA Tour moves to Florida for an east coast stretch after several weeks out west. This is a very difficult course that almost always plays as the most difficult par 70 on the regular PGA Tour rotation. It was no surprise that we saw a weak field here a year ago given the timing on the calendar, as this event was played in March 2021 (after THE PLAYERS), but it is somewhat of a surprise that the field is so poor again this year. Unlike last week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a longshot winner here. 

STL’s Best Win Market Bets — 2022 Honda Classic

Sungjae Im to win (+1200 on BetMGM) – Frankly, it’s almost a process of elimination at the top for me at this event. Berger is the best course fit, but he’s nowhere near healthy at this point. I’m not trusting an oft-injured Oosthuizen as a guarantee, either. Niemann is bound for something of a letdown after dominating last week. Enter Sungjae Im. He has finished 1st and 8th in the last two editions of this event, and his game is more well suited for difficult courses. Im also has six top 20 finishes in eight PGA Tour starts since the 2021-2022 season started back in the fall. I think there’s still value in this betting number at 12-to-1.

Taylor Moore to win (+5000 on DraftKings) – There are plenty of choices in the 40 to 50-to-1 range that have some potential, and I’m a fan of the up and coming Taylor Moore. He has finished 18^th and 21^st over his last two events, including a solid finish in a very strong field a week ago. His ball striking numbers are very strong since the start of the 2021 fall season, and the potential is there for him to grab a breakthrough win soon.

STL’s Top Ten Market Bets — 2022 Honda Classic

Tommy Fleetwood Top Ten Finish (+310 on FanDuel) – These are very solid odds for Fleetwood to finish inside the top ten. I would have pegged this more in the +260 to +270 range. While there doesn’t seem to be much rhyme or reason about when Fleetwood decides to tee it up on the PGA Tour these days, the potential remains. He did not play at PGA National in 2021 or 2019, but he did tee it up here in 2020 (finishing 3rd) and 2018 (finishing 4th). Perhaps it’s just an even year thing. In any case, the course history has been very strong when Fleetwood has decided to play this tournament, and he hasn’t missed a cut in a PGA Tour event since the RBC Heritage in April of 2021.

Ryan Palmer Top Ten Finish (+450 on DraftKings) – Palmer is a bit erratic at times, but we’re getting a bonus on his odds as a result of back-to-back missed cuts leading up to this event. As long as he can keep the ball out of the many water hazards that lurk around PGA National, there’s extreme value in these odds. He’s only a month removed from back-to-back top 16 finishes, and he has finished 4^th and 17^th in his last two trips to this course. I’m in.

STL’s Longshots / Other Bets — 2022 Honda Classic

Longshots – As I said in the introduction, I don’t mind taking a chance on a longshot or two at this event. Patrick Rodgers (+9000 on BetRivers) and Aaron Rai (+7000 on FanDuel) are a couple players that are inconsistent but have shown upside at times. Rodgers is one of my favorite dart throws this week, as he has taken an affinity to this course and plays here every year. That experience has value.

Jhonnathan Vegas to miss the cut (+190 on FanDuel) – Vegas has some of the best recent form and statistics in this field, and that’s part of the reason why you have to pay major juice on him to make the cut. This is one where I will zig when the world is zagging. Vegas has long been an inconsistent golfer, and I’d put his odds to miss the cut in the 40% range. The odds imply more of a 32-35% probability. As such, I’ll take the value here, especially if the odds creep even higher.

Matchup – Mito Pereira over Cameron Young (-110 on DraftKings) – Cameron Young has been a great story over the past few weeks, but he’s still going to be a very inconsistent golfer in the near term. This course will be a challenge that he has yet to see on the PGA Tour. Pereira showed well in his own right with a 15^th place finish last week, and I expect Pereira to be motivated after seeing his countryman Niemann pick up a victory. Give me Pereira in this head-to-head matchup.

Four-Ball Winner – Tommy Fleetwood over Shane Lowry, Brooks Koepka, and Keith Mitchell (+320 on BetRivers) – I have already talked about how much I love Fleetwood this week, and I give him a much greater than 25% chance of coming out of this group of four. Koepka and Mitchell are volatile golfers that could get in trouble on this course, and the steady hand of Fleetwood should guide him ahead of the others in more simulations than we need to make this a strong value bet.

Good luck this week everyone! Let’s win some money again!