Houston Astros Pitching Preview and 2022 Cy Young Odds

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida turns his attention to the diamond as he previews Houston Astros 2022 Cy Young odds Get $2000 in free bets using our PointsBet bonus offer!

Houston Astros 2022 Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 92.5 Wins (-110)
• Best Regular Season Record: +950
• Division Winner: -167
• To Make the Playoffs: -400
• American League Winner: +475
• World Series Champion: +1000

Houston Astros Pitching Preview

Starting Rotation

Astros Cy Young Odds

Justin Verlander (+2000)

Not counting the 2020 campaign in which Justin Verlander threw only 6.0 innings, he has been better than league average on the mound in 14 consecutive seasons. Yet, it would be irresponsible not to mention that the 39 year old has not taken the mound in an MLB game in over 600 days following Tommy John surgery. How concerned should bettors be about his health ahead of Opening Day?

Jake Kaplan of The Athletic reported that Verlander’s fastball averaged 94 miles-per-hour in his Spring Training outing last week. There is also something to be said about the fact that Verlander commanded a second-year player option in his new contract–a move that unambiguously shows confidence from the front office in Verlander’s ability to perform at a high level. In Verlander’s last full season, in 2019, he won the American League Cy Young award. It might be ambitious to bet on the veteran to return all the way to his elite form, but there are certainly worse players to wager on in this price range on the futures market.

Verlander’s AL Cy Young odds are +1600 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can get +2000 at BetMGM.

Lance McCullers Jr. (+1600)

It is hard to imagine a worse preseason wager that bettors could make ahead of Opening Day this year. Manager Dusty Baker has openly admitted that the Astros do not know exactly when, or if, Lance McCullers Jr. will be ready to join the rotation. McCullers Jr. is behind schedule in his rehab from the flexor pronator strain that he suffered during last year’s American League Division Series. McCullers Jr. is likely extra motivated to put together an excellent 2022, considering that it is the final year of a five-year, $85 million contract. However, he only hurts his free agency stock if he returns to the mound before being fully healthy. When healthy, McCullers Jr. possesses an elite curveball, slider, and changeup. His worst MLB season has ranked 15 percent better than league average, measured by FIP. Houston will be more than patient with his reconditioning, to ensure that one of the most talented starting pitchers in the league is available to help them make another postseason push. All of this is to say–the injury kills his Cy Young potential, but expect solid production from McCullers Jr. whenever he is ready to rejoin the team. 

Framber Valdez (+8000)

First things first – from a value perspective, it makes little sense that Framber Valdez is priced at 80:1 to win the American League Cy Young award. In the pandemic shortened 2020 campaign, he was 36 percent better than the league average pitcher, measured by FIP. For comparison purposes, Robbie Ray won the Cy Young in 2021 with a FIP only 13 percent better than league average. Second things second – Valdez is not going to win this award in 2022. Last season, Valdez saw his strikeout and walk rates regress to the 37th percentile or worse. Though he ranked in the 60th percentile or better in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage–he does not possess the swing-and-miss stuff to enter the elite tier of MLB starters. After four years of data, it looks more and more like the truncated 2020 campaign was an outlier. Expect Valdez to be slightly better than league average this summer, but not for him to hold any hardware for individual accolades this fall.

Luis Garcia (+4000)

Despite rarely touching 95 miles-per-hour with his fastball, Luis Garcia turned to his four-seamer and his cutter for a combined 67.3 percent of his pitch usage in 2021–and it worked. Garcia graded better than league average in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, strikeout percentage, walk rate, whiff percentage, and chase rate. Part of this can be attributed to a spin rate that ranks in the 77th percentile. Garcia struggled during the postseason to an 8.04 ERA, but part of that is likely a result of him nearly tripling his previous career high in innings pitched. Garcia is not worth a preseason Cy Young ticket, but he should be a stalwart in the Houston rotation in 2022.       

Jose Urquidy (+5000)

In each of his three big league seasons, Jose Urquidy has been somewhere around league average on the mound. In 177.2 innings of career work, he owns a 3.55 ERA and a 4.13 FIP–the latter of which is five percent better than league average in that span. In 2021, he once again exhibited elite command, ranking in the 96th percentile in walk-rate. However, he also ranked in the 32nd percentile in strikeout percentage. In his career, Urquidy has benefited from an abnormally fortunate .242 BABIP against him, despite ranking only around league average in average exit velocity, and below league average in other batted balls metrics such as xBA, xSLG, and barrel-rate. Slight regression could be on the way in 2022 if Urquidy is unable to improve his spin rates or deception.

Jake Odorizzi (+6600)

Though Jake Odorizzi might not offer the upside that Cristian Javier has in the rotation, there is a case to be made that it is simply safer to put Odorizzi in the rotation–a spot where he has totaled 1,133.0 innings in his career compared to only 14.0 innings as a reliever. Odorizzi’s incredible 2019 campaign with the Minnesota Twins was an outlier, and it does not appear as though he will be anything other than a backend innings eater going forward. In 2021, he ranked in the 29th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, strikeout percentage, whiff percentage, fastball velocity, and spin rate across all of his pitches. When McCullers Jr. returns to the mound, Odorizzi seems to be the most likely starter to lose his job.

Bullpen

In 2021, the Astros bullpen ranked 17th in FIP (4.21), 10th in xFIP (4.19), 7th in strikeout percentage (25.7%), 19th in walk-rate (10.4%), and 14th in WHIP (1.30). The unambiguous top option in this unit, Ryan Pressly collected 26 of Houston’s 34 saves last year. There are few better relievers in baseball than Pressly, who ranked in the 88th percentile or better in 2021 in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout percentage, walk-rate, whiff percentage, chase rate, and spin on his fastball and curveball. Pressly has ranked in the top eight percent in the entire MLB in xERA and xwOBA in four consecutive seasons. Even falling off of a cliff in 2022, Pressly should be 25 percent better than the league average reliever. Some pundits branded Hector Neris’ 2021 campaign as being a “bounce-back” following a 4.57 ERA in 2020. Yet, his 2020 FIP was 45 percent better than league average. If not for a terribly unfortunate .381 BABIP against him that year, nobody would have thought any less of his skill. Nevertheless, Neris saw his luck regress to the mean in 2021, and so did his numbers. Neris ranked in the 88th percentile or better in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout rate and whiff percentage. He has never had great command, and thus could be better suited to a role with less media attention as an 8th inning option rather than being responsible for the final three outs of wins. Houston has an underrated gem in Neris. Ryan Stanek offers far more uncertainty at the backend of this bullpen. Across his last three seasons, he owns a 3.94 ERA and a 4.40 FIP. Few pitchers surrendered more hard contact and free passes than Stanek in 2021. There is plenty of heat in his 97th percentile fastball velocity, but a poor spin rate and an inability to get hitters to chase his secondary offerings could relegate him to lower leverage duties by the middle of the summer.

Though initially slated for the 6th inning this season, Phil Maton has the opportunity to earn work closer to the end of the game. Other than a 20th percentile walk rate last summer, there were few weaknesses in his profile. Maton owns some of the best spin rates in baseball, which helped him finish in the 81st percentile in strikeout percentage, despite finishing in the 20th percentile in fastball velocity. Maton does a good job limiting hard contact and a great job missing bats altogether. He is a legitimate weapon for Manager Dusty Baker. Rafael Montero is less of a weapon, but reliable nonetheless. He has posted a better than league average FIP in three consecutive seasons, during which he owns an outstanding 6.8 percent walk rate. Rapidly declining strikeout rates since 2019 are something to keep an eye on, but they should not keep him from stable production in 2022. If there is one undeniable weakness in this Houston bullpen, it is the lack of a talented southpaw. Blake Taylor has been worse than league average in each of his first two MLB seasons. Taylor has been dominant against left-handed hitters each of the last two seasons, holding them to a .140 batting average while striking them out in 29.5 percent of at-bats. However, a 15.3 strikeout percentage and a 5.56 FIP against righties limits his potential in the era of the three-batter minimum rule. Pedro Baez owns a sterling 2.95 ERA since the beginning of 2020. Yet, a 4.45 FIP in that span does not offer much hope that his run prevention will remain elite again in 2022. Still, it is hard to do better as a front office than to have Baez in middle relief.

From April 26th to May 25th, the Astros will play 33 games in a span of 34 days. Assuming that McCullers Jr. is still on the injured list during this time, it is possible that Houston opts for a six-man rotation. If that ends up being the case, Cristian Javier is the clear top candidate to fill the role. Javier has 100.0 innings of work in his career as a starter. He has worked another 55.2 innings as a reliever. Javier was the club’s minor league pitcher of the year in 2019. Though he has experienced command issues and struggled to avoid hard-contact, there is still plenty of potential in his arm–with approximately league average production as a swingman being his floor.