Houston Astros 2022 Preview: AL Favorites Despite Losing Correa

Nick Galaida delivers another in-depth MLB betting preview for the 2022 season, this time for the Houston Astros. Make sure to use our Caesars bonus for $1100 bet insurance ahead of Opening Day!

Houston Astros 2022 Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 92.5 Wins (-110)
• Best Regular Season Record: +950
• Division Winner: -167
• To Make the Playoffs: -400
• American League Winner: +475
• World Series Champion: +1000

Despite the loss of Carlos Correa, the Houston Astros are still one of the premier teams in Major League Baseball, evident by them having the second shortest 2022 World Series odds of any franchise heading into Opening Day. As much as fans would love to attribute Houston’s championship solely to the cheating scandal that plagued the league, the Astros have been good enough to get back to the Fall Classic twice since they stopped cheating. At minimum, fans have to concede that this group’s 2021 postseason run was free of much suspicion. Houston has made it to the American League Championship Series or further in five consecutive seasons, having won their division four times, and won 100-plus games three times in that span. Let’s take a deeper dive into their offense to see how this roster is shaping up ahead of Opening Day in 2022.

Houston Astros Preview

Against left-handed pitching in 2021, Houston ranked 4th in OPS, 5th in ISO, 1st in strikeout percentage, 14th in walk rate, and 1st in wRC+. Facing right-handed pitching, the Astros ranked 4th in OPS, 9th in ISO, 2nd in strikeout percentage, 11th in walk rate, and 1st in wRC+.

The Astros have an underrated offensive catcher tandem with Martin Maldonado and Jason Castro. Per Baseball Prospectus, Maldonado totaled the third-worst OPS of any player who had 400 plate appearances or more in 2021, but he did grade near league average against southpaws. Castro posted a 152 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, likely affording him more playing time in 2022 as the understudy. Jeremy Pena has never appeared in a game at the MLB level. Frequently advertised as a glove-first prospect, Pena displayed surprising pop with the lumber in 30 games at AAA last season. He is extremely unlikely to post Carlos Correa-esque numbers in his rookie year for the Astros, but the drop-off might not be as steep as fans may have feared. If nothing else, he should be an excellent defender at arguably the most important position on the infield. As a result of Jake Meyers having offseason shoulder surgery, Chas McCormick has a clear path to an everyday role in center field to begin the year. McCormick is an outstanding defender, but his bat has plenty of room to grow for him to be an impactful regular for a contender. Aledmys Diaz has consistently graded as a better defender at second base, third base, and the outfield than he has at shortstop. Still, his excellent contact rates are likely to make him one of the better utility options in the American League once again in 2022.

American League MVP Odds

Yordan Alvarez (+2500)

There are few hitters in the league more dangerous at the plate than Yordan Alvarez. Last season, Alvarez ranked in the 85th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage. He sees both left- and right-handed pitching extremely well, but a 30th percentile strikeout percentage remains the one major weakness in his game. Unquestionably one of the most feared offensive weapons in the league, Alvarez has a negative bias when it comes to any potential MVP conversations due to his lack of innings in the field. Especially in the age of Shohei Ohtani, he is unlikely to win any mental tiebreakers with voters if his numbers are even somewhat comparable to other award candidates. Primarily for that reason, he is not worth a preseason investment at his current market price.

Alvarez’s AL Most Valuable Player odds are +2200 on PointsBet Sportsbook, but you can get +2500 at BetMGM.

Jose Altuve (+3000)

Throw out the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign and Jose Altuve has posted seven consecutive seasons of offensive production at least 24 percent better than the league average hitter. In that span, he has never batted below .278 and never struck out in more than 15.0 percent of his plate appearances. Though Altuve ranked in only the 21st percentile in average exit velocity and the 29th percentile in barrel percentage in 2021, he still managed to leave the yard 31 times and drive in 83 runs. Expect his home run to fly-ball ratio to normalize somewhat in 2022, but for him to still approach 25 home runs while providing elite contact skills and plus-defense at second base. He is unlikely to be an MVP candidate in his age 32 season, but he will still be a meaningful contributor for the reigning American League champions. 

Kyle Tucker (+3500)

Not many players were worse than Kyle Tucker in 2018. In his first 28 games at the big league level, Tucker batted .141 with a .236 OBP. A former fifth overall draft selection, Tucker has shown tremendous improvements at the plate in each of the subsequent three years. In 2021, he hit 30 home runs and tallied 92 RBI while ranking in the 77th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout percentage, and whiff percentage. He did all of this while playing plus-defense in the outfield. Tucker has improved his wOBA exponentially against fastballs, breaking pitches, and offspeed pitches since his rookie year–to the point that he has no discernable weakness in his offensive profile. If there is anything to be said negatively about Tucker at the plate, it is that he is probably more of a contact hitter than a power threat against offspeed offerings. Even that statement is only barely a negative comment. Tucker has all of the tools to be one of the best hitters in baseball. There are plenty of reasons to purchase stock in the 25 year old prior to Opening Day.

Alex Bregman (+4500)

Alex Bregman has been a solidly above average hitter in each of his first six MLB campaigns, though his high draft status and postseason reputation probably afford him an undeserved mention in conversations when discussing the elite players in the league. Bregman is closer to a great hitter than an elite hitter, and was closer to good than great in 2021. Last summer, Bregman ranked below league average in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xSLG, and barrel percentage. By the end of the World Series, Bregman found himself demoted to the seventh spot in the Houston lineup. Offseason wrist surgery further complicates his return to stardom. He still possesses a quality glove on the left side of the infield and rarely beats himself in an at-bat, but it would be surprising to see him in MVP conversations in August or September.

Michael Brantley (+8000)

Michael Brantley is likely the best hitter in baseball who has a zero percent chance to win the MVP award in 2022. Discarding an injury-plagued 2016 campaign in which he played only 11 games, Brantley has posted better-than-average numbers at the dish in nine consecutive seasons. In that span, he has never struck out in more than 15.0 percent of his plate appearances and has not posted a batting average below .299 since 2013. Nevertheless, at 35 years old, Brantley has shown inevitable signs of slight regression. In 2021, he delivered an OPS below .800 for the first time in eight years and ranked in only the 53rd percentile in average exit velocity. He was surprisingly awful against left-handed pitching, hitting only .219 with a .261 OBP and a .575 OPS. Brantley is unlikely to ever completely fall off of a cliff, due to his shrewd approach at the plate. Yet, his best days are unquestionably behind him. There is no value here when it comes to preseason awards betting, though the Astors will certainly find value in his bat once again this summer–at least against right-handed pitching.

Yuli Gurriel (+10000)

At 37 years old, Yuli Gurriel posted the best numbers of his big league career, hitting .319 with 15 home runs and 81 RBI, while striking out only 11.2 percent of the time. In addition to his solid bat, he plays respectable defense at first base–though his baserunning leaves much to be desired. In 2021, Gurriel ranked in the 61st percentile in average exit velocity and the 56th percentile in hard-hit rate, but only the 26th percentile in xSLG. Due to Gurriel’s lack of power, his production is more dependent on a fortunate BABIP than most hitters in the MLB. Still, his worst projections have him producing at a league-average level. He will not win the MVP, but he is an important part of the Houston lineup.