Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Odds, Pick and Prediction

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Astros vs. Angels odds, previews each team, and delivers picks and predictions for Saturday. Use our BetMGM promo code to get a $1000 free MLB bet!

Astros vs. Angels Odds

On Saturday, the Houston Astros and the Los Angeles Angels will play the third game of a four-game set at Angel Stadium. The Astros have dominated the first two games of this series, winning on Opening Day 3-1 before routing the Angels yesterday 13-6. Houston will send Justin Verlander to the hill in this one, who will be countered by Noah Syndergaard for the Halos. Oddsmakers at online sportsbooks anticipate the Astros securing their third consecutive victory to begin the year, pricing them as -116 favorites on the moneyline

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Houston Astros

Not counting the 2020 campaign, during which Verlander tossed only 6.0 innings, he has been better than league average on the hill in 14 consecutive seasons. Yet, coming off Tommy John surgery at 39 years old is not without risk. In Verlander’s return to competition during Spring Training, he was routinely sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball while showing strong command of his secondary offerings. There is something to be said about the fact that the Astros gave him a second-year player option in his new contract–a move that unambiguously shows the confidence that the organization has in the veteran hurler returning to ace form.

Against right-handed pitching in 2021, Houston ranked 4th in OPS, 9th in ISO, 11th in walk rate, 2nd in strikeout percentage, and 1st in wRC+ at the plate. Carlos Correa leaving for the Minnesota Twins in the offseason is likely to hurt these numbers a little bit, but the emergence of Jeremy Pena suggests that the drop-off will not be dire. Last night, Pena tallied three hits, including his first career home run to improve his average to .333 during the early portion of the campaign. This is still one of the most deadly lineups in baseball.

Unlike a lot of teams, Houston’s bullpen is in relatively good shape after their first two games. Phil Maton, Hector Neris, and Ryan Pressly combined for 27 pitches on Thursday. The easy victory on Friday enabled Manager Dusty Baker to give each of his top weapons an off-day, meaning that everyone should be available for this evening. In 2021, the Astros bullpen ranked 17th in FIP (4.21), 10th in xFIP (4.19), 7th in strikeout percentage (25.7%), 19th in walk-rate (10.4%), and 14th in WHIP (1.30).

Los Angeles Angels

The last time we saw Syndergaard throw a full allotment of innings, he posted a 4.28 ERA, 3.40 xERA, 3.60 FIP, and a 24.5 strikeout percentage against a 6.1 percent walk-rate. Prior to his recent string of seemingly endless injuries, his worst season was 17 percent better than league average, measured by FIP. Syndergaard has plenty of upside in his return to the mound, evident by the $21 million commitment that the Angels front office made to him during the offseason. Still, it will be difficult to trust the oft-injured star until we see him get through at least a month of MLB action in 2022.

Against right-handed pitching, in 2021, Los Angeles ranked 20th in OPS, 22nd in ISO, 28th in walk-rate, 20th in strikeout percentage, and 20th in wRC+ at the dish. Not factored into those numbers from a predictive standpoint is the fact that Mike Trout played only 36 games and Anthony Rendon played only 58 games in 2021. Still, this is a group that does not instill much fear in opposing pitchers after Jared Walsh batting in the four-hole. 

The Angels have yet to use their closer, Raisel Iglesias in 2022 because they have not had a late lead to protect during the opening days of the season. The other top options in this unit are likely available as well, considering that Ryan Tepera, Aaron Loup, and Austin Warren each threw 16 pitches or less on Thursday and did not pitch at all yesterday. Mike Mayers threw 8 pitches yesterday, but should be available if needed in the late innings today as well. In 2021, the Angels bullpen ranked 14th in FIP (4.19), 20th in xFIP (4.38), 17th in strikeout percentage (23.5%), 18th in walk-rate (10.3%), and 25th in WHIP (1.40).

Astros vs. Angels Free Pick & Predictions

In this matchup between two starting pitchers coming off of major injuries, there is risk on both sides. However, Verlander’s path to returning to the field was filled with far fewer setbacks and without any medical red tape. Syndergaard was not cleared to throw breaking pitches when he returned at the end of 2021, and has not been fully healthy in a tremendously long time. The Astros also have the better lineup and an equally capable bullpen in this one. MLB bettors should feel comfortable backing Houston at these odds as they go for their third consecutive victory.

• PICK: Astros ML (-109)