Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners (4/17/22): Odds, Pick and Prediction

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Astros vs. Mariners Odds

On Sunday afternoon, the Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners will wrap-up a weekend set at T-Mobile Park. Seattle easily defeated Houston in the series opener by a final score of 11-1, but the Astros rebounded for a 4-0 victory on Saturday. In the rubber match, Houston will turn to Jose Urquidy. Seattle will counter with Matt Brash. MLB Oddsmakers anticipate the Astros coming away with their second consecutive win, pricing them as -130 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Houston Astros

In our Astros preseason preview, we mentioned that Urquidy has benefited from an abnormally low BABIP throughout his career, despite ranking only around league average in average exit velocity, and below league average in other metrics such as xBA, xSLG, and barrel-rate. Urquidy’s run of good fortune continued in his first turn through the rotation in 2022 as he had a .200 BABIP against the Los Angeles Angels. Last season, Urquidy posted a 3.88 FIP when pitching away from home. He has an opportunity to deliver another strong outing on Sunday against a feeble Seattle Mariners lineup.

Against right-handed pitching in 2021, Houston ranked 4th in OPS, 5th in ISO, 14th in walk rate, 1st in strikeout percentage, and 1st in wRC+ at the plate. The continued absence of Yordan Alvarez coupled with the offseason departure of Carlos Correa unquestionably hurt this lineup. However, the emerging stardom of Jeremy Pena, who has a .996 OPS so far this year, has made the loss almost undetectable. Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, and Yuli Gurriel are each hitting below .260 on the young season. This group is due for a breakout performance in the coming days.

Ryan Pressly landed on the injured list yesterday with knee inflammation, but Manager Dusty Baker should have all of his other high-leverage options available at his disposal on Sunday as needed. Hector Neris closed out yesterday’s win, but an 8.0 inning masterclass from Justin Verlander provided plenty of rest for the remainder of the arm barn as the week draws to a close.

Seattle Mariners

In our Mariners preseason preview, we mentioned that we were extremely high on Matt Brash, and expected him to quickly force himself into a meaningful role in this rotation. In his MLB debut against a dangerous Chicago White Sox lineup, Brash delivered 5.1 innings of one-run ball while striking-out six batters and scattering four hits. He was tough on both left- and right-handed hitters. Local Seattle media characterized Brash’s breaking pitches as “wicked” earlier this spring. Coupled with a high-90s fastball, the sky is the limit for the young prospect. Bettors should expect another strong performance from him in his second outing of 2022.

Against right-handed pitching, in 2021, the Mariners ranked 25th in OPS, 20th in ISO, 9th in walk-rate, 27th in strikeout percentage, and 16th in wRC+ at the dish. The Mariners have scored 4 runs or less in seven of their nine games to begin the 2022 campaign, including getting shutout yesterday. Though Urquidy is a less difficult task than Verlander was yesterday, this is still a lineup that is unlikely to do a significant amount of damage in the series finale.

Andres Munoz, Drew Steckenrider, Paul Sewald, and Diego Castillo were all rested in Friday’s double-digit victory, and none of them made their way into yesterday’s affair either. Consequently, none of Seattle’s top relief options have thrown more than 14 pitches across the last three days. Everyone should be available as needed on Sunday for Manager Scott Servais.

Free MLB Betting Pick For Today

Since the beginning of the 2019 season, T-Mobile Park has ranked as the second-most pitcher-friendly venue in Major League Baseball in day games–generating eight percent less offense than league average. Today’s matchup features two quality starting pitchers against two struggling offenses. Both bullpens are well-rested and capable of locking down the late innings. Take the under in this one.

PICK: Game Total Under 7.5 (-110), DraftKings