Kansas City Royals Pitching Preview and 2022 MLB Futures Odds

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida turns his attention to the diamond as he previews the Kansas City Royals pitching staff and MLB futures odds.

Kansas City Royals 2022 Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 75.5 Wins (-110)
• Best Regular Season Record: +30000
• Division Winner: +1500
• To Make the Playoffs: +500
• American League Winner: +7000
• World Series Champion: +12000

Kansas City Royals Cy Young Odds

Brady Singer (+15000)

A former 18th overall selection, the Royals are hoping that 2022 is a breakout year for Brady Singer. In his first 192.2 innings at the MLB level, Singer turned in a 4.62 ERA and a 4.05 FIP–his FIP being five percent better than the league average pitcher in that span. In 2021, Singer ranked in the 41st percentile in strikeout percentage and the 39th percentile in walk rate. However, he was above league average in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel percentage. Still, Singer’s overreliance on his two-pitch, sinker/slider arsenal allowed hitters to see him slightly better last summer compared to his rookie year. Singer generates weak contact and a strong swing and miss percentage on his changeup, but threw it only 3.9 percent of the time in 2021. In fact, opposing hitters posted a putrid .253 xwOBA against Singer’s changeup during his sophomore campaign. If Singer commits to throwing his changeup more in 2022, it is not difficult to see him unambiguously asserting himself as the ace of this staff. A Cy Young award might be a bit ambitious, but at 150:1, a preseason wager here could mature into a hedgeable piece of stock to own by the time July or August rolls around.

Brad Keller (+20000)

Across his first three big league campaigns, Brad Keller posted a 3.50 ERA and a 3.90 FIP–the latter of which ranked 10 percent better than the league average pitcher in that time period. Yet, a 16.8 strikeout percentage in his first 360.1 innings of work remained a salient concern. The inability to generate swings and misses caught up to Keller during the early portion of 2021 when he registered a 6.39 ERA and a 5.08 FIP across his first 16 starts. Per Baseball Prospectus, a midseason mechanical adjustment to his delivery was implemented at the end of June, which slightly increased Keller’s strikeout percentage to 21.2 percent across his final 10 trips to the mound. In those 10 starts, Keller returned to his predictably mediocre self–posting a 4.06 ERA and a 4.25 FIP. Based on his peripherals and his inability to generate many swings and misses, Keller is unlikely to contend for any awards in 2022. Given the wealth of emerging young pitching prospects approaching graduation from the Royals’ farm system, Keller could even be a candidate to move to long relief if he has another slow start to the spring.     

Note: Keller’s AL Cy Young odds are +15000 on Caesars Sportsbook, but you can get +20000 at BetMGM.

Kris Bubic 

When Kris Bubic debuted with the Royals in 2020, he had pitched exactly zero innings above the A level of the minor leagues. Thus, it is difficult to be too sour on Bubic’s future after a lackluster first 180.0 innings in the big leagues, considering that he is still working on pieces of his development that most pitchers get to work on with less media attention in AA and AAA. In his first two MLB campaigns, Bubic owns a 4.40 ERA and a 5.03 FIP. He features a plus-curveball and a changeup that generates a healthy amount of swings and misses. However, his ceiling is likely a middle-of-the-rotation option due to a fastball that ranked in the 17th percentile in velocity and the 15th percentile in spin rate in 2021. If Bubic can continue to sharpen his offspeed and breaking pitches, his command should improve, which should make him a dependable member of the Kansas City Royals rotation in the coming years.

Zack Greinke

Admittedly, we have all experienced a situation in which we have either stayed with an ex too long when we shouldn’t have, or in which we have gone back to an ex when we shouldn’t have. In this case, it’s the latter for the Royals. Zack Greinke is one of the greatest pitchers in Kansas City history, but there is very little reason for him to be standing in the way of the exciting youth movement happening on this roster. The Royals signed Greinke to a one year, $13M dollar contract, despite the presence of emerging arms, such as Carlos Hernandez, Angel Zerpa, and Jackson Kowar. There were very telling signs that Greinke fell off of a cliff during the second half of 2021. From the beginning of July until the end of the regular season, Greinke posted a 4.95 ERA and a 5.80 FIP. His 5.80 FIP was 36 percent worse than league average, despite experiencing extremely good fortune with a .240 BABIP across his final 13 trips to the mound. In that span, he only struck-out 16.3 percent of opposing batters, which placed his season-long strikeout percentage in only the 11th percentile among qualified pitchers. His fastball velocity ranked in the 7th percentile last summer. He was below league average in other important predictive metrics, such as xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, whiff percentage, and spin rate. Simply, $13 million is far too much money for a mentor, especially if he is blocking the organization from establishing new, exciting relationships with talented young arms.

Daniel Lynch 

Similar to Bubic, Daniel Lynch was rushed to the big leagues, having thrown only 57.0 innings above the A level of the minors before making his MLB debut in 2021 with the Royals. A former 34th overall draft pick, Lynch has plenty of upside, but a 5.69 ERA, 6.40 xERA, and 4.82 FIP in his rookie season has understandably cooled the expectations for the southpaw. He graded in the 12th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, and strikeout percentage. His changeup and slider induce plenty of swings and misses, but command was a tremendous problem last summer. Lynch is still only 25 years old, but he is at least one or two years away from becoming a household name around the league.

Bullpen

In 2021, the Royals bullpen ranked 15th in FIP (4.20), 22nd in xFIP (4.50), 18th in strikeout percentage (23.4%), 21st in walk-rate (10.4%), and 16th in WHIP (1.31). Earlier this month, the Royals traded Mike Minor and cash considerations for Amir Garrett to bolster this unit. In 2021, Garrett posted his worst numbers since his rookie season, but was still only slightly worse than league average. He brings a healthy amount of high leverage experience to this bullpen, not to mention a dynamite fastball and elite strikeout ability. It also never hurts to have another left-handed option in relief. Josh Staumont was atrocious as a rookie, but owns a respectable 2.76 ERA and a 3.50 FIP across his last 91.1 innings of work. Staumont possesses elite fastball velocity and one of baseball’s best curveballs–against which, batters posted a .227 xwOBA last year. Scott Barlow is one of the more underrated late-inning options in the MLB. He has posted a FIP at least 16 percent better than league average in each of his first four seasons as a big-leaguer. Barlow ranked in the 77th percentile or better last season in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout percentage, whiff percentage, chase rate, and fastball velocity. He figures to have another productive workload in 2022, whether or not he finds himself in a traditional closer role. 

Jake Brentz posted a 1.93 ERA and a 3.38 FIP from Opening Day until June 18th in 2021. Then, he posted a 5.46 ERA and a 5.12 FIP across the season’s final three months. There is potential here for a player who can touch triple-digits with his fastball, but command issues and an inability to get hitters to chase pitches out of the zone are likely to keep him from pitching with the game on the line. Domingo Tapia’s fastball sat in the 95th percentile among qualified arms last year. Similar to the rest of the Kansas City bullpen, command issues are a concern. Yet, he should find himself a home as a solid middle relief option for this unit. Joel Payamps is Tapia with slightly less fastball velocity, but better command and more spin on his pitches. Payamps also ranked in the 78th percentile or better last season in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel-rate. Gabe Speier has only thrown 20.2 innings at the MLB level, spread across three campaigns. Dylan Coleman posted a 1.42 ERA, 2.22 xERA, and a 1.43 FIP in 6.1 innings in 2021. Coleman has been impressive at nearly every level of the minors, but has very little exposure in the pros. 

Angel Zerpa seems unlikely to break camp as a member of the starting rotation following the signing of Zack Greinke, but he could be a dynamic weapon for Manager Mike Matheny out of the bullpen if he makes the roster. He has drawn rave reviews during Spring Training, most notably from his potential battery-mate, Salvador Perez. Carlos Hernandez was seemingly another strong candidate to be in the Opening Day rotation in 2022, following a respectable final month of the 2021 regular season, in which he posted a 2.67 ERA and a 3.76 FIP. After the signing of Greinke, however, he figures to be a long relief option in April as a beneficiary of expanded rosters.