Los Angeles Angels Pitching Preview and 2022 Cy Young Odds

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida previews Los Angeles pitching and breaks down Cy Young odds for Shohei Ohtani. Use our BetMGM bonus to get a $1000 risk-free bet before Opening Day!

Los Angeles Angels 2022 Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 83.5 Wins (-110)
• Best Regular Season Record: +6500
• Division Winner: +400
• To Make the Playoffs: +150
• American League Winner: +1600
• World Series Champion: +4000

Angels Pitching Preview, AL Cy Young Odds

Starting Rotation

Shohei Ohtani (+2800)

Earlier this week, Manager Joe Maddon unsurprisingly named reigning American League MVP, Shohei Ohtani, the Opening Day starter on the mound for the Angels. Much was made about Ohtani’s new pitches in 2021, dubbing his junior year a breakout season on the mound, but the truth is that it was availability more than skill that led to such branding. Ohtani’s 2021 numbers on the hill were nearly identical to those posted as a rookie in 2018. The only salient difference was that Ohtani threw 130.1 innings in 2021, but only 51.2 innings in 2018. As a starter last summer, he ranked in the 81st percentile or better in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and strikeout percentage. He does not have the spin rates or the command necessary to make him a Cy Young candidate, but the Angels will hardly be disappointed if arguably their best hitter is only 20 percent better than league average on the hill. 

Ohtani’s AL Cy Young odds are +2200 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can get +2800 on PointsBet.

Patrick Sandoval 

In his first two big league seasons, Patrick Sandoval delivered a 5.33 ERA and a 5.23 FIP across a combined 76.0 innings of work. In 87.0 innings in 2021, the results were much better with 3.62 ERA, 3.57 xERA, and a 4.03 FIP. The secret to his newfound success was not hard to notice–namely, a 20 percent reduction in fastball usage in favor of a 7 percent increase with his changeup and some other offspeed offerings. Opposing hitters posted a putrid .213 wOBA against his changeup and a .226 wOBA against his slider. The changeup and slider generated an astounding 51.4 percent and 38.3 percent swing-and-miss percentage, respectively. The arsenal change resulted in Sandoval finishing in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and the 92nd percentile in whiff percentage. He also graded in the 65th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, strikeout percentage, and chase rate.

Sometimes it really is that simple: throw your best pitches more often and your not-so-great pitches less often. Assuming we see a similar pitch usage in 2022, Sandoval is well equipped to have another excellent year.

Noah Syndergaard (+6600)

After inking a one-year, $21 million dollar deal in the offseason, Noah Syndergaard will almost certainly be third in line in the rotation. The last time we saw Syndergaard throw a full allotment of innings, he posted a 4.28 ERA, 3.40 xERA, 3.60 FIP, and a 24.5 strikeout percentage against a 6.1 percent walk-rate. Prior to his recent string of seemingly endless injuries, his worst season was 17 percent better than league average, measured by FIP. Syndergaard has looked reasonably sharp in Spring Training, but it will be hard to trust that Thor is ready to contribute in a meaningful way for the Halos until we see at least a full month of data in real games. Reports from camp indicate that Syndergaard is expected to throw approximately 130 innings in 2022. He has very little chance of contending for individual accolades, but his resurgence would go a long way towards helping Los Angeles make it back to the postseason. 

Jose Suarez 

Jose Suarez was infinitely better in 2021 than he was across his first 83.1 innings at the big league level. To be fair, it would have been hard to have been worse. Spanning two seasons from 2019 to 2020, Suarez owned a 7.99 ERA and a 6.95 FIP–the latter of which was 48 percent worse than league average in that span. He struck-out only 18.6 percent of opposing batters and allowed nearly two baserunners per inning. In 2021, he was much better, turning in a 3.75 ERA, 4.15 xERA, and a 4.12 FIP in 98.1 innings. His changeup was outstanding, holding hitters to a dreadful .172 wOBA while generating an impressive 38.2 percent swing-and-miss percentage. Still, below average command and a 28th percentile strikeout rate leave quite a few concerns–not to mention a fastball that ranks below the 40th percentile in both velocity and spin rate. The Angels would be thrilled to get league average run prevention from Suarez as their fourth or fifth starter in 2022. He is capable of such results, though it is far from a certainty.        

Michael Lorenzen 

Michael Lorenzen’s 2022 production will go a long way in determining whether or not the Angels can break the plague of mediocrity that troubled them since their last playoff victory in 2009. Last summer, Lorenzen’s fastball ranked in the 69th percentile in velocity and the 89th percentile in spin rate. The pitch held opposing hitters to a .222 wOBA. Unfortunately, Lorenzen prioritized a cutter as his primary pitch, despite the fact that batters posted a .351 wOBA against the offering. It remains to be seen if the relatively inexperienced pitching coach in Anaheim, Matt Wise, can unlock the undeniable potential in Lorenzen. He will not win a Cy Young award, but he has the potential to be better than league average if he throws his best pitches more often–similar to his rotation-mate, Sandoval.

Reid Detmers (+6600)

Per Sam Blum of The Athletic, Maddon is “adamant” about using a six-man rotation in 2022. The extra job might not be Detmers’ out of camp, but it is likely that the Angels will want to see the former number 10 overall draft selection in the big leagues sooner rather than later this summer. In 20.2 innings as a rookie, Detmers did little to impress anyone–posting a 7.40 ERA, 5.66 xERA, and a 6.36 FIP. His 18.8 strikeout percentage and 10.9 percent walk rate were both extremely underwhelming. There is plenty of potential for the highly touted prospect, who struck-out 108 batters in only 62.0 innings of work between AA and AAA in the minors last year. There is tremendous growth potential here, even if Detmers soured some of the hype surrounding his arrival with a dismal August debut in 2021.

What’s in the Bullpen?

In 2021, the Angels bullpen ranked 14th in FIP (4.19), 20th in xFIP (4.38), 17th in strikeout percentage (23.5%), 18th in walk-rate (10.3%), and 25th in WHIP (1.40). Across his last 93.0 innings of work, Raisel Iglesias owns a 2.61 ERA and a 2.58 FIP–the latter of which ranks 41 percent better than league average in that span. In 2021, he ranked in the 98th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 96th percentile in walk-rate. Per Baseball Prospectus, he generated whiffs more often than every other pitcher except for Jacob deGrom and Josh Hader. Iglesias has elite velocity, command, spin rates, and a rare ability to induce extremely weak contact. There are few 9th inning options more trustworthy than Iglesias.

Prior to last summer, Aaron Loup had been good, but not great as a reliever. In 351.0 innings of work spanning nine seasons, he had a 3.38 ERA and a 3.50 FIP to go with a 21.9 strikeout percentage. In 2021, Loup delivered a 0.95 ERA, 3.15 xERA, and a 2.45 FIP. His 26.1 strikeout percentage ranked in the 66th percentile in baseball. He held opposing hitters to a .229 wOBA, which ranked in the 99th percentile. Repeating last year’s numbers is unlikely, but Loup figures to be a strong late-inning option for Maddon in 2022, and was one of the more underrated signings of the offseason. In 2021, Ryan Tepera ranked in the 96th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, wOBA, xwOBA, and xERA. Tepera has elite upside, but also the most volatile floor of any member of this bullpen unit. A strong season from him could help Los Angeles contend for top-10 bullpen metrics in 2022.

Archie Bradley is clearly a step down from the other three established members at the backend of this unit. Since the beginning of 2019, Bradley owns a respectable, albeit far from elite, 3.51 ERA and a 3.64 FIP. Notably, Bradley struck-out only 17.9 percent of opposing batters in 2021, which ranked in the 14th percentile among qualified pitchers. His fastball and curveball spin rates each ranked in the 20th percentile or worse. The inability to put hitters away also resulted in a significant spike in walk-rate. Despite the obvious concerns, Bradley still projects as a viable 6th inning option for this bullpen. At worst, he should deliver league average production in his role. In the pandemic shortened 2020 campaign, few relievers were more dominant than Mike Mayers, who ranked in the 92nd percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, wOBA, xwOBA, strikeout percentage, and xERA. Yet, the breakout was suspicious due to the fact that he had posted a 7.03 ERA and a 5.19 in 80.2 innings in his career prior to 2020. Mayers regressed to a 3.84 ERA, 3.81 xERA, and a 3.84 FIP in 2021. He lacks a truly elite put-away pitch, but his improved results have helped him grade as a better than league average reliever in back-to-back seasons.

Though he is unlikely to see many high leverage opportunities, he is far from the worst option to have in middle relief. Austin Warren was outstanding in a short stint as a rookie with a 1.77 ERA, 2.37 xERA, and a 2.09 FIP. He held opposing hitters to a .223 wOBA with his fastball. Warren has the potential to be one of the better arms in this unit by the end of the summer. Andrew Wantz, a former 7th round draft pick, has an unremarkable arsenal, but he will be a useful man to eat innings in low leverage. Jose Quijada posted an elite 34.5 strikeout percentage in 25.2 innings of work in 2021. However, a ghastly 13.5 percent walk-rate will have him fighting to stay on the roster during the early portion of 2022.