Los Angeles Dodgers Cy Young Odds and 2022 Pitching Predictions

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida looks at Los Angeles Dodgers Cy Young odds gives some 2022 MLB predictions. Make sure to claim $1100 of first-bet insurance with our Caesars promo code.

Los Angeles Dodgers Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 99.5 Wins (-110)
• Best Regular Season Record: +220
• Division Winner: -222
• To Make the Playoffs: -1000
• National League Winner: +250
• World Series Champion: +500

Dodgers Cy Young Odds

Walker Buehler (+1000)

Walker Buehler lost a decent amount of spin on each of top five offerings when the MLB cracked-down on sticky substances during the early portion of the summer. Yet, his spin rates were so good prior to the foreign substance ban that Buehler still managed to finish the year in the 94th percentile in spin rate on his fastball and the 91st percentile on his curveball. He once again paired excellent command with outstanding swing-and-miss stuff. The result was a 2.47 ERA, 3.10 xERA, 3.16 FIP and ranking in the 87th percentile in xwOBA. A former first round draft selection, Buehler has more than lived up to the hype during his first five MLB seasons. He possesses six above average pitches, which help him to neutralize both right- and left-handed bats. He still sits a slight tier below the truly elite starters in baseball, but he is certainly one of the best arms in the league.

Buehler’s NL Cy Young odds are +1000 on the BetMGM app.

Julio Urias (+5000)

As uncomfortable as it may be for pundits to admit, Julio Urias was better than Buehler in 2021 and has more upside heading into 2022. Last summer, Urias ranked in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity, the 87th percentile in xwOBA, and the 87th percentile in xERA. He also paired elite command with elite spin rates–spin rates that did not diminish at all when the league banned sticky substances. From 2020 to 2021, Urias reduced his fastball usage in favor of far more curveballs. The change in strategy paid enormous dividends, considering that opposing hitters posted a .348 wOBA against his fastball, but only a meager .181 wOBA against his curveball. Urias’ sinker and changeup also held batters to a .231 wOBA or lower. It would not be surprising to see Urias reduce his fastball usage even more going into 2022. He might end up sacrificing a little bit of command for a few more swings-and-misses, but it could be worth it. At only 25 years old, Urias has one of the highest ceilings in all of baseball. These preseason odds are tremendously mispriced. If Urias stays healthy, this will undoubtedly be a hedge-able ticket after the All-Star break.

Clayton Kershaw (+5000)

Clayton Kershaw is no longer the unquestioned best pitcher in baseball, but he is still in the upper echelon of talent when is healthy enough to be on the field. In 121.2 innings last summer, Kershaw posted a 3.55 ERA, 3.17 xERA, and a 3.00 FIP. He finished the year in the 66th percentile in average exit velocity, 85th percentile in xwOBA, 85th percentile in xERA, 85th percentile in strikeout percentage, and the 97th percentile in walk-rate. He did all of this despite a fastball velocity that barely touched 90-miles-per-hour. Excellent spin rates and a dramatic increase in usage of his slider at the expense of his four-seamer were the primary causes. Opposing hitters posted a .348 wOBA against Kershaw’s fastball, but only a .253 wOBA against his slider and a .198 wOBA against his curveball. Per Baseball Prospectus, Kershaw set a career-high in swinging-strike rate at 16.6 percent, which tied Corbin Burnes for the best among all pitchers with greater than 100.0 innings thrown in 2021. Health remains a concern, but Kershaw has plenty of talent left in the tank.

Tony Gonsolin

Tony Gonsolin was outstanding in two separate stints in 2019 and 2020, posting a 2.60 ERA and a 3.02 FIP. However, he was slightly less impressive in 2021–delivering a 3.23 ERA, 3.71 xERA, and a 4.54 FIP across 55.2 innings of work while dealing with shoulder problems. Gonsolin was still better than league average in average exit velocity, xwOBA, and strikeout percentage, but a 3rd percentile walk rate portends regression if he cannot correct that issue heading into 2022. It was also more than a little bit alarming that opposing batters had a .426 wOBA against his fastball. Los Angeles does not have an indestructible rotation heading into Opening Day. 

Andrew Heaney (+15000)

Trevor Bauer is still on paid administrative leave, facing extremely serious allegations. Dustin May is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. The result is a vulnerable backend of the Los Angeles rotation for the first time in years. In 2021, Andrew Heaney was abysmal, with a 5.83 ERA, 4.04 xERA, and a 4.85 FIP. He ranked in the 36th percentile in average exit velocity, 42nd percentile in xwOBA, and the 21st percentile in barrel percentage. In his worst full season as a professional, Heaney still exhibited characteristically strong strikeout and walk ratios. However, an inability to keep the baseball from going over the fence derailed him at every stop he made last summer. A transition to Dodger Stadium, the third-most homer prone ballpark across the last three years per Statcast, is unlikely to turn him into an ace. Do not be fooled into expecting greatness from Heaney simply because he will be pitching for a contender.

Bullpen

In 2021, the Dodgers bullpen ranked 7th in FIP (3.83), 6th in xFIP (4.07), 11th in strikeout percentage (25.5%), 22nd in walk-rate (10.5%), and 3rd in WHIP (1.19). 

From April 3rd to July 26th, Craig Kimbrel posted a 0.49 ERA and a 1.10 FIP as one of the most dominant relief pitchers in baseball. Moved into a setup role with the Chicago White Sox after the trade deadline, Kimbrel had a 5.09 ERA and a 4.56 FIP. He still turned in a gaudy 36.7 strikeout percentage in that time period, but was nowhere near as dominant in terms of run prevention. A return to the 9th inning with the Dodgers is likely to fix any psychological issues that occurred when he switched sides of town in Chicago last summer.

Blake Treinen had a horrific 2019 with the Oakland Athletics, which enabled the shrewd Dodgers to sweep in to land him on a bargain deal. In two seasons in Los Angeles, Treinen owns a 2.48 ERA and a 2.95 FIP. In 2021, Treinen added one of the most devastating sliders in baseball to his repertoire, transitioning from a sinker-ball first hurler to having his new fancy toy be his primary pitch. Opposing hitters had a .102 wOBA against the slider last season, and a .288 wOBA against his cutter. If Kimbrel returns to form, there is not a better 8th and 9th inning combination in all of baseball.

Daniel Hudson increased his slider usage by over 10 percent from 2020 to 2021, and it resulted in his ERA dropping from 6.10 to 3.31. His sinker held opposing hitters to a .042 wOBA. If not for a .505 wOBA against his fastball, Hudson might have been one of the best late-inning arms in the National League. Still, he finished in the 97th percentile in strikeout rate and the 60th percentile in walk rate. He figures to be solid again in 2022.

Brudar Graterol was largely underwhelming in 2021 for someone that routinely touched 100 miles-per-hour on the radar gun. He finished the year with a 4.59 ERA, 3.92 xERA, and a 3.95 FIP. He introduced a cutter during the final month of the season, which could help him turn in better results in 2022. At his worst, he is still better than league average, but there is a lot of potential for a pitcher with his velocity if he can develop another pitcher to throw batters off balance a little bit more.

Evan Phillips is out of options, which could give him a leg up in making the Opening Day roster. How long he stays there remains the more important question. After posting a 3.38 ERA, 4.76 xERA, and a 3.85 FIP in 2021, he will have a short leash to show that he can continue to improve upon his career 6.68 ERA and 5.03 FIP. If not, the Dodgers have no shortage of depth and money to replace him.

Tyler Anderson is insurance for the rotation. In 2021, he tossed 167.0 innings of nearly exactly league average production. His 19.1 strikeout percentage will not sell many jerseys, but he is a nice depth piece for a team that is likely to deal with injuries in the starting rotation at some point this summer.

Justin Bruihl struck-out five of the seven batters he faced in last year’s National League Championship Series. However, his stark splits against left- and right-handed hitters make him a purely situational option for Manager Dave Roberts during the regular season. Bruihl posted a 2.93 FIP against lefties in 2021, but a dreadful 6.17 FIP against righties. The three-batter minimum rule will likely limit his usage.

Garrett Cleavinger was not particularly effective against anyone in 2021. His sterling 3.00 ERA to finish the year beguiles a much uglier 4.67 xERA and a 5.89 FIP. He has a plus-slider, but command issues will keep him from pitching in anything but low-leverage situations for the Dodgers. 

Victor Gonzales was dominant as a rookie in 2020, posting a 1.33 ERA, 2.04 xERA, and a 1.67 FIP. His slider was one of the best in all of baseball. Gonzales was similarly excellent through the middle of June in 2021, with a 1.99 ERA and a 3.35 FIP. However, a ban on foreign substances suspiciously coincided with a 6.39 ERA and a 5.93 FIP from June 20th until the end of the regular season. He will need to discover how to exhibit better command and increase his spin rates again if he hopes to be long on this roster.

David Price opted-out of the 2020 campaign, due to personal reasons. He returned in 2021 to post a 4.03 ERA, 4.09 xERA, and a 4.23 FIP across 73.2 innings of work. He is no longer the ace of a staff, but he provides valuable depth as a swingman for Los Angeles.