Mariners vs. Marlins Preview: Odds, Picks and Prediction (4/30/22)

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Mariners vs. Marlins odds, picks and predictions for today — Saturday, April 30. Make sure to use our Caesars bonus to get $1100 first-bet insurance!

Mariners vs. Marlins Odds

Tonight, the Kansas City Royals and the Seattle Mariners will continue a three-game set at T-Mobile Park. Seattle emerged victorious in the series opener by a final score of 4-1 behind a strong outing from Chris Flexen. On Saturday, the Royals will hand the ball to Kris Bubic, who will be opposed by Matt Brash. Oddsmakers anticipate the Mariners coming away with a victory in this one, pricing them as -165 favorites on the moneyline.

Tonight, the Seattle Mariners and the Miami Marlins will continue their three-game, weekend series at loanDepot park. The Marlins emerged victorious in the series opener by a final score of 8-6. On Saturday, Seattle will hand the ball to reigning American League Cy Young award winner, Robbie Ray. Miami will counter with Jesus Luzardo. Oddsmakers anticipate a tightly-contested affair, pricing this game at a -110 pick’em on the market.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Tonight, the Kansas City Royals and the Seattle Mariners will continue a three-game set at T-Mobile Park. Seattle emerged victorious in the series opener by a final score of 4-1 behind a strong outing from Chris Flexen. On Saturday, the Royals will hand the ball to Kris Bubic, who will be opposed by Matt Brash. Oddsmakers anticipate the Mariners coming away with a victory in this one, pricing them as -165 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Seattle Mariners

Robbie Ray owns a 3.91 ERA, 4.06 xERA, and a 4.80 FIP through his first four turns in the rotation in 2022, but his numbers are marred by one poor start against the Chicago White Sox, in which he allowed six earned runs in 6.1 innings in weather that was not dissimilar from a tropical storm. In Ray’s other three outings, he has allowed a combined four earned runs across 19.0 innings (1.89 ERA). If there is any reason to be concerned about Ray, it is the fact that his velocity is down roughly 2 miles-per-hour across the board on all of his pitches. The reduced velocity could partly explain why Ray’s chase rate, swing-and-miss percentage, and average exit velocity allowed have all negatively regressed compared to his sensational 2021 campaign.

Fortunately for the Mariners, they have multiple paths to a victory in this one. If Ray is unable to produce a dominant outing, this is a lineup that should be able to put a few runs on the board. Against left-handed pitching in 2022, Seattle ranks 4th in OPS, 6th in ISO, 1st in walk-rate, and 11th in strikeout percentage. The Mariners have three players with better than a 1.205 OPS against southpaws so far this year.

Seattle’s arm barn ranks only 20th in the league in FIP entering play, but there are few usage concerns heading into this matchup. Matt Festa, Wyatt Mills, and Penn Murfee each tossed 23 pitches or more in yesterday’s loss. However, high-leverage arms such as Diego Castillo, Erik Swanson, Drew Steckenrider, Anthony Misiewica, and Andres Munoz are each rested and should be available as needed on Saturday.

Miami Marlins

Compared to 2021, Jesus Luzardo has increased his curveball usage by 16.0 percent, while concurrently reducing his sinker usage by 10.9 percent, and his changeup usage by 11.2 percent. The change in pitch-mix comes as a welcome sign for all Luzardo stock-owners. Opposing hitters have never posted higher than a .260 wOBA against his curveball, but he allowed a .378 wOBA against his changeup and a .421 wOBA against his sinker last season. Through three starts, Luzardo owns a much-improved 3.77 ERA, 2.61 xERA, and a 1.35 FIP. He is also striking-out a career-best 37.5 percent of opposing batters. This is a difficult test for the young lefty against a strong Seattle lineup, but he should be able to keep the Marlins competitive this evening, at the very least.

Nevertheless, it is going to be difficult for the Marlins to win this game if they are not able to push runs across the board. In 175 plate appearances against left-handed pitching in 2022, the Fish rank 22nd in OPS, 20th in ISO, 11th in walk-rate, and 30th in strikeout percentage. Of players with at least 10 at-bats against left-handed pitching in 2022, only Brian Anderson has better than a .762 OPS for Miami. Further, Avisail Garcia, Brian Anderson, Jesus Aguilar, Jacob Stallings, Jesus Sanchez, and Garrett Cooper each have worse than a 30.0 percent strikeout rate against southpaws to begin the year.

Miami’s relief corps enters play on Saturday ranked 23rd in FIP, but usage concerns make this unit even more unreliable this evening. Anthony Bender has thrown in three of the last four days. Anthony Bass and Tanner Scott have each thrown in two of the last three days. Cody Poteet and Shawn Armstrong both appeared yesterday. Richard Bleier and Cole Sulser would each be appearing for the third time in five days if they made their way into the action on Saturday. Steven Okert and Louis Head have been reliable options out of the bullpen so far in 2022, but neither pitcher is typically seen as a go-to option in high-leverage situations.

Free MLB Betting Pick For Today

In this contest, the starting pitchers are relatively equal when it comes to talent. However, Robbie Ray has a significantly more favorable matchup against the Marlins’ lineup compared to Jesus Luzardo’s matchup against a talented Mariners’ offense. If this game is close into the late innings, Seattle has a more rested relief unit, which should enable this group to put the finishing touches on a victory. Take Seattle here to even the series.

• PICK: Mariners Moneyline (-110)