Mariners vs. Red Sox Preview: Odds, Picks and Prediction (5/21/22)

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Mariners vs. Red Sox odds, picks and predictions for today — Saturday, May 21. Make sure to use our Caesars bonus to get $1100 first-bet insurance!

Mariners vs. Red Sox Odds

On Saturday afternoon, the Seattle Mariners and the Boston Red Sox will play the second contest of a four-game, weekend set at Fenway Park. Boston has won each of the first two games of this series by a combined score of 19-9. Today, Seattle will look to get back in the win column with Chris Flexen on the hill. Boston will counter with Garrett Whitlock, as they go for their fourth consecutive victory overall. Oddsmakers anticipate the Red Sox staying hot in this one, pricing them as -164 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Seattle Mariners

There is not much to like about Chris Flexen, especially when he takes the mound on the road. Through seven starts in 2022, Flexen owns a 4.35 ERA, 5.11 xERA, and a 4.92 FIP. His 4.96 FIP and 1.46 WHIP on the road is a continuation from his 2021 struggles, during which he had a 4.52 FIP and a 1.48 WHIP away from the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park. Flexen enters play ranked in the 22nd percentile or worse this season in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, strikeout percentage, and fastball velocity. He has been particularly poor against right-handed batters, with a 6.05 IP and a 1.46 WHIP. Bettors should not have high hopes for Flexen this afternoon.

Seattle has struggled of late with the bats as well, further reducing their likelihood of collecting a win in this one. Across the last two weeks, the Mariners offense ranks 20th in OPS, 23rd in ISO, 14th in walk percentage, and 23rd in strikeout percentage. They also rank 28th in average exit velocity, 25th in barrel percentage, and 29th in hard-hit percentage in that time period.

Diego Castillo has thrown in two of the last three days, and Anthony Misiewicz has appeared in consecutive contests, but the rest of the Seattle arm barn should be available without any usage concerns on Saturday. Yet, simple availability should not be considered an automatic strength for a unit that ranks 25th in baseball with a 4.41 FIP across the last month of action.

Boston Red Sox

There is not much to like about Chris Flexen, especially when he takes the mound on the road. Through seven starts in 2022, Flexen owns a 4.35 ERA, 5.11 xERA, and a 4.92 FIP. His 4.96 FIP and 1.46 WHIP on the road is a continuation from his 2021 struggles, during which he had a 4.52 FIP and a 1.48 WHIP away from the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park. Flexen enters play ranked in the 22nd percentile or worse this season in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, strikeout percentage, and fastball velocity. He has been particularly poor against right-handed batters, with a 6.05 IP and a 1.46 WHIP. Bettors should not have high hopes for Flexen this afternoon.

Seattle has struggled of late with the bats as well, further reducing their likelihood of collecting a win in this one. Across the last two weeks, the Mariners offense ranks 20th in OPS, 23rd in ISO, 14th in walk percentage, and 23rd in strikeout percentage. They also rank 28th in average exit velocity, 25th in barrel percentage, and 29th in hard-hit percentage in that time period.

Diego Castillo has thrown in two of the last three days, and Anthony Misiewicz has appeared in consecutive contests, but the rest of the Seattle arm barn should be available without any usage concerns on Saturday. Yet, simple availability should not be considered an automatic strength for a unit that ranks 25th in baseball with a 4.41 FIP across the last month of action.

Free MLB Betting Pick For Today

Flexen is easily one of the most fade-able pitchers in Major League Baseball right now. It only adds insult to injury that Flexen finds himself on the road against a likely right-handed heavy lineup for the Red Sox in this one. Whitlock has proven himself as a dependable rotation piece for Boston in a small body of work since being transitioned to a rotation role. The smart lean in this one is towards Boston.

• PICK: Red Sox Moneyline (-154)