Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction (5/8/22)
Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida delivers a free MLB pick and prediction in this Marlins vs. Padres betting preview. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo code to get a $1000 free bet today!
Marlins vs. Padres
Today, the Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres will wrap-up a four game set at Petco Park. San Diego emerged victorious on both Thursday and Friday, but Miami rebounded for an 8-0 win on Saturday. In the series finale, Miami is sending Trevor Rogers to the hill, who will be opposed by Joe Musgrove. Oddsmakers anticipate the Padres earning a series victory, pricing them as -148 favorites on the moneyline.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.
Miami Marlins
Across 25 starts in 2021, Trevor Rogers posted a 2.64 ERA, 3.37 xERA, and a 2.55 FIP. However, he has struggled to a 6.14 ERA, 4.06 xERA, and a 4.13 FIP through his first five turns in the rotation in 2022. Noticeably, Rogers’ strikeout percentage has plummeted from 28.5 percent to 18.6 percent, and his walk percentage has worsened from 8.4 percent to 11.3 percent. The result has been a 1.50 WHIP, despite still doing a good job of limiting hard contact. He will have his work cut-out for him against a dangerous San Diego lineup on Sunday.
Rogers is backed in this one by what has been a mediocre offense of late, ranking 14th in OPS, 15th in ISO, 12th in strikeout percentage, and 19th in walk percentage across the last two weeks of action. On the year, the Marlins rank 11th in OPS, 15th in ISO, 8th in walk percentage, and 14th in strikeout percentage when facing right-handed pitching.
Despite having lost six games in a row prior to yesterday’s win, the Marlins bullpen is not exactly fresh. Cody Poteet and Tanner Scott each threw 28 pitches or more on Friday. Anthony Bender, Louis Head, Anthony Bass, and Steven Okert would each be appearing for the third time in five days if they make their way into this afternoon’s affair. Everyone should be available this afternoon, but fatigue is a mild concern.
San Diego Padres
Joe Musgrove has been dominant through his first five outings to begin the new campaign, posting a 1.97 ERA, 2.31 xERA, and a 2.11 FIP. In his five starts, Musgrove has yet to allow more than two earned runs, and has only walked two hitters out of a total of 123 batters faced this season. In 2021, Musgrove was substantially better when pitching at home, with a 3.02 FIP, compared to a 4.41 FIP on the road. Musgrove figures to have another strong performance on Sunday as he continues to build on an impressive start to the year.
In the last 14 days, San Diego’s offense ranks 13th in OPS, 16th in ISO, 1st in walk percentage, and 7th in strikeout percentage. Though this lineup has been mediocre of late, this group has been one of the better teams in baseball against southpaws during the first month of the season, ranking 10th in OPS, 3rd in ISO, 3rd in walk percentage, and 16th in strikeout percentage. A huge reason for this success can be attributed to the fact that both Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer have a 1.022 OPS or better against left-handed pitching so far. Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth have a .763 OPS and a .748 OPS, respectively, as well.
San Diego’s bullpen is in relatively good shape if called upon to handle a late-lead on Sunday. Taylor Rogers pitched on Wednesday and Thursday, but has been rested each of the last two days. None of the other arms in this relief unit have thrown more than 25 pitches in the last three days or appeared in more than one game in that time period.
Marlins-Padres MLB Pick Today
Simply, the Padres have the better starting pitcher and the better lineup in this matchup. If this game is tightly-contested into the late-innings, San Diego has all of their top relief arms available to put the finishing touches on a series win this afternoon. Take the Friars on the moneyline to get the job day today.
PICK: Padres ML @ -148