Marlins vs. Giants Odds, Preview, Pick and Prediction

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida previews Saturday’s Marlins vs. Giants game. Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

Marlins vs. Giants Odds

On Saturday afternoon, the Miami Marlins and the San Francisco Giants will play the second game of a three-game set at Oracle Park. San Francisco emerged victorious in an extra inning thriller on Opening Day by a final score of 6-5. Today, the Marlins will send Pablo Lopez to the hill as they seek to pull back to the .500 mark in the early part of the campaign. San Francisco will counter with Carlos Rodon. MLB Oddsmakers anticipate the Giants securing their second consecutive victory to begin the year, pricing them as -145 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Miami Marlins

Pablo Lopez was limited to only 102.2 innings in 2021 due to a right rotator cuff strain, but when he was on the mound he was fantastic. Lopez finished the campaign with a 3.07 ERA, 3.55 xERA, and a 3.29 FIP. He ranked in the 77th percentile in strikeout percentage, 80th percentile in walk-rate, 87th percentile in average exit velocity, and the 74th percentile in xwOBA. When pitching on the road, he had a 3.81 FIP, 24.3 strikeout percentage, and a 5.9 percent walk-rate. Lopez was nearly equally effective against both left- and right-handed batters, posting a 3.15 FIP against righties and a 3.42 FIP against lefties.

Against left-handed pitching, in 2021, Miami ranked 29th in OPS, 28th in ISO, 27th in walk rate, 30th in strikeout percentage, and 27th in wRC+ at the plate. However, the front office did their best to address this salient weakness during the offseason by acquiring Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler. Last summer, Garcia posted a .935 OPS and a 143 wRC+ against southpaws. Soler posted an .846 OPS and a 126 wRC+ in such situations. On Saturday, the Marlins are likely to have six players with better than an .800 OPS against lefties in the starting lineup–Soler, Garrett Cooper, Jesus Sanchez, Jesus Aguilar, Garcia, and Miguel Rojas.

Miami burned through six bullpen arms on Friday, using Tanner Scott for 15 pitches, Cole Sulser for 16 pitches, Richard Bleier for 10 pitches, Louis Head for 4 pitches, Anthony Bender for 7 pitches, and Anthony Bass for 16 pitches. In 2021, the Marlins bullpen ranked 6th in FIP (3.80), 17th in xFIP (4.29), 27th in strikeout percentage (22.0%), 5th in walk-rate (8.7%), and 8th in WHIP (1.26).

San Francisco Giants

Carlos Rodon finished last year ranked in the 95th percentile in xwOBA, 96th percentile in strikeout percentage, and the 73rd percentile in walk-rate. A 2.37 ERA, 2.68 xERA, and a 2.65 FIP would likely have garnered him the American League Cy Young award, but shoulder fatigue limited him to only 132.2 innings. Rodon did not pitch into the 6th inning a single time after July 18th. Further, his average fastball velocity dropped from 96.7 miles-per-hour in June to 92.9 miles-per-hour in September. In fact, he lost multiple ticks off of each of his four pitches by the end of the season. Overall, Rodon was excellent against everyone in 2021, but he was particularly tough against left-handed bats, with a 1.55 FIP. On Saturday, the Marlins could have as many as seven or eight right-handed hitters in the lineup. Rodon had a 2.92 FIP against right-handed batters last summer.

Against right-handed pitching, in 2021, San Francisco ranked 5th in OPS, 3rd in ISO, 4th in walk-rate, 21st in strikeout percentage, and 4th in wRC+ at the dish. Though this lineup does not have the biggest names in baseball, there are few weaknesses to this offensive attack. Last year, the Giants had five players from their projected Saturday lineup finish with an .824 OPS or better, and another three batters finish with a .733 OPS or better. Joey Bart is perhaps the only weak link in this group in the early portion of the campaign.

Similar to the Marlins, the Giants used a number of different relievers on Opening Day. Dominic Leone, Tyler Rogers, Jake McGee, Camilo Doval, John Brebbia, and Jose Alvarez combined to cover four innings of work. Fortunately for San Francisco, they have plenty of depth in their arm barn–finishing 2021 ranked 2nd in FIP (3.71), 11th in xFIP (4.20), 22nd in strikeout percentage (22.6%), 1st in walk-rate (7.4%), and 1st in WHIP (1.13).

Free MLB Betting Pick For Today

Although this game will feature two talented starting pitchers, this contest will also feature a number of talented offensive weapons, as well as a pair of fatigued bullpens. The temperature at first pitch is forecasted to be 60 degrees with a strong wind blowing straight out towards center field. If opening day was any indication, these two lineups figure to generate plenty of scoring opportunities on Saturday. Take the over in this one.

• PICK: Over 7.5 runs (-110), DraftKings

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