Marlins vs. Rays Expert Pick And Prediction For Today (5/25/22)

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Marlins vs. Rays odds, previews each team, and delivers picks and predictions for Wednesday. Use our PointsBet promo code to get a $2000 in free bets!

Marlins vs. Rays: Expert Pick and Prediction

On Wednesday evening, the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays will conclude a brief two-game intra-state series at Tropicana Field. The Rays won on Tuesday by a final score of 4-0, and will be looking for a mini-sweep tonight, playing behind Drew Rasmussen. Miami will turn to Cody Poteet as they try to get back in the win column. Oddsmakers anticipate the Rays securing another victory in this spot, pricing them as -185 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Miami Marlins

Poteet was abysmal in limited work last year, but in 23.0 innings of work to begin the 2022 campaign, he owns a 0.78 ERA, 2.80 xERA, and a 3.06 FIP. A complete overhaul of his pitch-mix has led to tremendous improvements so far this season. Notably, he has increased his changeup usage against left-handed batters from 23.3 percent to 50.0 percent, and his slider usage from 5.3 percent to 14.9 percent, while nearly eliminating his curveball and dramatically reducing his fastball frequency. Stretched out to 54 pitches in his longest outing of the year, Miami is likely hoping for only four or five frames from Poteet in on Wednesday. Regardless of how long he lasts in this contest, he should be reasonably effective once again. 

Despite getting shutout on Tuesday, the Marlins have been swinging the bats well of late–ranking 7th in OPS and 11th in ISO across the last two weeks. Miami struggles primarily against left-handed pitching, which played a significant role in their poor showing in yesterday’s affair. Bettors can confidently expect a better approach from this group tonight.

Tampa Bay Rays

In his first season as a permanent member of the starting rotation, Drew Rasmussen has impressed, with a 2.33 ERA, 3.03 xERA, and a 2.72 FIP through his first eight turns in the rotation. Last year, Rasmussen had a 29.4 strikeout percentage as a reliever, but his pitch mix translated to only an 18.2 strikeout percentage as a starter. In 2022, Rasmussen has introduced a cutter, which has helped him elevate that number to a 22.4 strikeout percentage. The cutter has held opposing hitters to a .143 batting average, .238 slugging percentage, and a .190 xwOBA. Rasummen is rapidly becoming a trustworthy option for bettors on the mound every fifth day.

The Rays continue to be underwhelming offensively–ranking 17th in OPS, 10th in ISO, 29th in walk percentage, and 18th in strikeout percentage across the last two weeks of action. Overall against right-handed pitching in 2022, the Rays have been a paragon of mediocrity, ranking 14th in OPS as a team–which is the metric with the highest correlation to runs scored in Major League Baseball. The recipe for success for Tampa Bay is strong starting pitching coupled with enough run support to let the bullpen put the finishing touches on a narrow victory.

Marlins vs. Rays Expert Pick 

Bettors may not be familiar with Cody Poteet, but he has solidified himself as a reliable option for the Marlins in a hybrid role between the starting rotation and the bullpen. Drew Rasmussen’s altered pitch-mix has yielded excellent early returns as a starter in 2022. In night games since the beginning of the 2019 campaign, Tropicana Field has produced the 3rd-fewest offense of any park in all of baseball. Bettors should expect a lower-scoring affair in this one. Take the under.

• PICK: Marlins/Rays Under 7 (-110), Multiple Sportsbooks