New York Mets Cy Young Odds: Scherzer Is NL Favorite On Opening Day

Find out why Max Scherzer is the new NL Cy Young favorite and where Jacob deGrom’s odds sit on Opening Day. Use our PointsBet bonus code to get $2K in risk-free bets before Opening Day, and find more offers from New York sportbooks!

New York Mets Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 91.5 Wins (+100)
• Best Regular Season Record: +1200
• Division Winner: +250
• To Make the Playoffs: -355
• American League Winner: +600
• World Series Champion: +1300

New York Mets 2022 Starting Rotation

Mets Cy Young Odds

Jacob deGrom (+1200)

There are zero valid arguments to be made that there is a pitcher more talented than Jacob deGrom in the game today. Across his last 581.0 innings of work, spanning four seasons, he owns a 1.94 ERA and a 2.14 FIP. Prior to a season-ending injury in 2021, deGrom owned an incredulous 45.1 strikeout percentage against a miniscule 3.4 percent walk-rate. Opposing hitters posted a putrid .188 wOBA against his slider, making it one of the most unhittable offerings from a starting pitcher in recent memory. He ended the campaign with a FIP that was 71 percent better than league average, even if he was limited to only 15 turns through the rotation. During Spring Training in 2022, deGrom appeared to have returned to full health, but a stress reaction in his right scapula is likely to keep him out of action until at least the beginning of June. His extended absence makes it close to impossible that deGrom will contend for the National League Cy Young award this summer, no matter how triumphant his return for the latter half of the regular season.

deGrom’s NL Cy Young odds were as short as +250 at PointsBet Sportsbook prior to injury. However, MLB futures bettors shouldn’t find him interesting at +1200 considering the circumstances.

Max Scherzer (+600)

It is hard to argue that another team has a better front-of-the-rotation than the New York Mets, who have the two top favorites to win the Cy Young award in the Senior Circuit. In his age-36 season, Max Scherzer somehow got better–posting a career-best 2.46 ERA across 179.1 innings of work. After getting sent to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the trade deadline, Scherzer was undoubtedly the most dominant pitcher in baseball in August and September, delivering a 1.98 ERA and a 1.96 FIP while striking out 89 hitters and walking only 8 batters in 68.1 innings. A hamstring injury might delay Scherzer’s start to the year in Flushing, but it will not be long before the Mets faithful have him taking the ball every fifth day.

Schrezer became the new NL Cy Young betting favorite at sportsbooks following deGrom’s injury.

Chris Bassitt (+7500)

Chris Bassitt owns a 3.23 ERA and a 3.82 FIP in 412.0 innings since the beginning of the 2018 season. Last summer, Bassitt posted a career-best 25.0 strikeout percentage and a 6.1 percent walk-rate, both of which were significantly better than league average. The veteran hurler also did a magnificent job limiting hard contact, ranking in the 76th percentile in average exit velocity and the 76th percentile in wOBA. Bassitt is nowhere near overpowering enough to contend for individual accolades, but he is a tremendous value-add to this New York starting staff.

Carlos Carrasco (+20000)

Though tempting to say that all of Carlos Carrasco’s troubles during the 2021 campaign were due to injury, there have been obvious signs of decline dating all the way back to 2019. In his last 201.2 innings on the mound, “Cookie” owns a 4.69 ERA and a 4.35 FIP. This past October, Carrasco had surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. Perhaps more alarming than anything else, Carraso posted career worsts in spin rates on nearly all of his pitches last year, and all of his pitches featured lower spin rates than they did in 2018. Carrasco is likely still good enough to be a valuable middle-of-the-rotation piece for this group, but it would be unwise to expect anything remotely close to the 3.27 ERA and 3.01 FIP he posted from 2014 to 2018 in Cleveland.

Taijuan Walker (+20000)

Tommy John surgery wiped out nearly all of Taijuan Walker’s 2018 and 2019 campaigns. In 11 starts during the pandemic-shortened season, Walker was surprisingly serviceable with a 2.70 ERA, but a 5.03 xERA and a 4.56 FIP suggested that the results were due more to luck than anything else. Then, Walker posted a 2.66 ERA and a 3.06 FIP through the first 16 turns he took in the rotation for the Mets in 2021, making it look as if he had returned to peak form following a devastating injury. The magic quickly evaporated after the All-Star break, however, when he suffered to a 7.13 ERA and a 6.79 FIP across his final 64.1 frames. Realistically, his true production probably lies somewhere between his sensational start and his abysmal finish. If he can stay healthy, he should give New York a chance to win nearly every time he takes the mound as one of the better back-of-the-rotation options in the National League East.

Tylor Megill

In his first taste of big-league action in 2021, Tylor Megill had a 4.52 ERA, 3.84 xERA, and a 4.69 FIP. The former 8th round draft selection showed promise with a 26.1 strikeout percentage and a 7.1 percent walk-rate, but was undone by frequently allowed hard-contact. Megill ranked in only the 29th percentile in average exit velocity and the 14th percentile in barrel percentage. Still, an upper-90s fastball and a devastating slider give him a reasonably safe floor entering 2022. If he can further improve his changeup, he could quickly become an indispensable member of the Mets organization. 

Bullpen

In 2021, the Mets bullpen ranked 9th in FIP (4.05), 7th in xFIP (4.15), 6th in strikeout percentage (25.8%), 13th in walk-rate (9.6%), and 12th in WHIP (1.30). 

In 2018, Edwin Diaz recorded 57 saves, which tied him with Bobby Thigpen for the second-most in a single season. That year, Diaz posted a 1.96 ERA, 1.93 xERA, 1.61 FIP and struck-out 44.3 percent of the batters he faced. Since joining the Mets, he has sustained a gaudy 38.3 strikeout percentage across 146.1 innings, but a 9.5 percent walk-rate and an inability to keep the ball in the yard on a consistent basis has culminated in a 4.00 ERA and a 3.23 FIP. Diaz was still very good in 2021, ranking in the 76th percentile in average exit velocity and the 96th percentile in xwOBA. On a one-year deal for 2022, it would not be surprising to see him post his third consecutive season with a below 3.00 FIP.

To be a legitimate contender in modern baseball, teams need a surplus of elite late-inning arms to turn to with the game on the line. Seth Lugo does not fit under that distinction. Since the beginning of 2020, Lugo owns a 4.23 ERA and a 4.07 FIP, with an elbow surgery not shown on the back of his baseball card. He possesses elite spin on a curveball that held opposing hitters to a .188 wOBA. His fastball was similarly excellent last season, but his sinker and slider were pummeled far too often for pitches that combined for 39.2 percent of his offerings. If Lugo wants unsolicited advice, stick to what works–he should dramatically reduce how frequently anything other than a fastball or curveball leaves his hand.

Adam Ottavino falls into the bucket of good, but not great. In 80.1 innings since the beginning of 2020, Ottavino owns a 4.59 ERA and a 3.86 FIP. His strikeout percentage has decreased in each of the last four seasons, which has corresponded to progressively worse run prevention metrics. His velocity has diminished as well in recent years, though he did gain a tick back on his fastball in 2021. Still, his two best pitches did not perform well for him last summer. Entering his age-36 campaign, his best days seem to be irretrievably in the rear view mirror. His floor remains league average, but league average is not good enough for a high-leverage hurler on a team with lofty aspirations.

Trevor May has been one of the more reliable relievers in baseball across the last four years, with a 3.33 ERA and a 3.63 FIP. In 2021, he ranked in the 91st percentile in xwOBA and the 90th percentile in strikeout rate. He continues to walk far too many batters and is prone to hard-contact. May has the potential to be one of the better members of this unit if he can improve his command, but that is not as easy as it sounds, evident from looking at his seven-year resume in the big-leagues.

Joely Rodriguez was acquired in a deal with the New York Yankees near the end of Spring Training to bring another proven left-handed arm to this bullpen. Since the beginning of 2020, Rodriguez owns a 4.12 ERA and a 3.06 FIP, which is not elite, but is better than league average. He finished 2021 ranked in the 80th percentile in average exit velocity and the 66th percentile in xwOBA. Rodriguez is likely to be used primarily in situations in which they can shield him from right-handed batters as much as possible, considering his stark splits.

Trevor Williams has seemingly hit the end of the road as a starter in the big-leagues following a three-year span in which he posted a 5.21 ERA and a 4.96 FIP. The Mets’ decision to bring Williams to town for 2022 is a curious one, considering that opposing hitters had a .301 wOBA or better against each of Williams’ offerings last summer. 

Per Baseball Prospectus, Drew Smith had the lowest BABIP of any pitcher who struck-out less than 25.0 percent of opposing hitters last season. Expect major regression in Smith’s run prevention metrics in 2022. League average production would be a major win for him, but it is not particularly likely.

Chasen Shreve ranked in the 68th percentile in average exit velocity in 2021, but he ended the year with a 4.73 FIP due to a 19th percentile strikeout percentage and a 12th percentile walk-rate. Shreve has posted a FIP worse than league average in five of the last seven seasons. He figures to operate in low-leverage situations in 2022, where his ineffectiveness will carry less meaning.