Miami Marlins Pitching Preview: How Alcantara Can Win Cy Young

Pitching Preview

Name	Throw	FIP- 2021	FIP- 2020	FIP- 2019	BABIP 2021	K%	BB%
Sandy Alcantara	RHP	83	86	106	.270	24.0%	6.0%
Pablo López	RHP	79	72	99	.301	27.5%	6.2%
Trevor Rogers	LHP	61	100	–	.301	28.5%	8.4%
Elieser Hernandez	RHP	131	90	130	.289	23.6%	6.2%
Jesús Luzardo	LHP	132	97	59	.322	22.4%	11.0%

Marlins Cy Young Odds

Sandy Alcantara (+3000)

After getting drilled for 10 earned runs in 3.2 innings of work at Coors Field on August 6th, Sandy Alcantara posted a 2.21 ERA and a 2.55 FIP across his final 10 turns through the rotation. Notably, Alcantara finished the year with a 3.19 ERA, 3.50 xERA, and a 3.42 FIP while tossing 205.2 innings–-and he is still only 26 years old. Alcantara ranked in the 76th percentile in average exit velocity and the 75th percentile in wOBA in 2021. His 98th percentile fastball velocity only earned him enough whiffs to rank in the 54th percentile in strikeout percentage, but his elite command and control of the strike-zone allowed him to flourish nonetheless. It remains perplexing why Alcantara throws his changeup for 23.5 percent of his offerings, considering that opposing hitters destroyed it for a .440 wOBA last summer. In fact, it was Alcantara’s only pitch that batters posted higher than a .235 wOBA against in 2021. If he cuts the crap (in this case, his changeup) from his arsenal, there is a viable path to the Cy Young award for someone who will pitch roughly half of his innings in one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball.

Alcantara’s NL Cy Young odds are +2500 on PointsBet Sportsbook, but you can get +3000 on Caesars.

Pablo Lopez (+7500)

Pablo Lopez was limited to only 102.2 innings in 2021 due to a right rotator cuff strain, but when he was on the mound–he was outstanding. Lopez finished the campaign with a 3.07 ERA, 3.55 xERA, and a 3.29 FIP. He ranked in the 77th percentile in strikeout percentage, 80th percentile in walk-rate, 87th percentile in average exit velocity, and the 74th percentile in xwOBA. He possesses four plus-pitches out of his five-pitch mix, with his sinker being the only offering that truly made life difficult in 2021. Lopez is still only 26 years old with plenty of upside waiting to be fully unlocked. Alcantara and Lopez form one of the best front-of-the-rotation tandems in the entire National League, as odd as that may sound to casual fans.

Trevor Rogers (+6000)

At the risk of sounding like an overzealous Miami Marlins fan, the emergence of Trevor Rogers as an elite arm in 2021 gives the Fish arguably the best front-three of any rotation in the division. In 133.0 innings last summer, Rogers posted a 2.64 ERA, 3.39 xERA, and a 2.55 FIP. He ranked in the 74th percentile in average exit velocity, 79th percentile in xwOBA, and the 81st percentile in strikeout percentage. A mediocre 8.4 percent walk-rate was one of the only blemishes on an otherwise sensational year for the 23 year old. Rogers’ fastball sits in the mid-90s and he pairs it with elite spin rates that generate weak contact at a better rate than most seasoned veterans. Each of Rogers’ three pitches held batters to a .290 wOBA or lower in 2021. If he can avoid spending more than a month of 2022 on the COVID-injury list, there is legitimate potential for him to contend for the Cy Young in the National League.

Elieser Hernandez

Elieser Hernandez is a true back-of-the-rotation type of pitcher. In 51.2 innings in 2021, he posted a 4.18 ERA, 4.63 xERA, and a 5.38 FIP. He ranked in only the 18th percentile in average exit velocity and the 28th percentile in xwOBA. He has elite command, but only mediocre swing-and-miss potential. Yet, part of Hernandez’s struggles last year were due to the fact that he threw his worst pitch over 50 percent of the time. Opposing hitters posted a .464 wOBA against his fastball, but an incredulous .089 wOBA against his changeup, which he threw only 12.2 percent of the time. There is potential for better than Hernandez delivered in 2021, but adjustments need to be made. 

Jesus Luzardo (+4000)

Jesus Luzardos’s preseason Cy Young odds are priced exclusively based on reputation, and not at all based on production. Luzardo is a former third round draft selection, but nobody would know that from looking at his 6.61 ERA, 5.33 xERA, and 5.48 FIP in 2021. Luzardo ranked worse than league average in nearly every meaningful pitching metric, including a dreadful 18th percentile in walk-rate and 14th percentile in xwOBA. The Marlins tried to tinker with Luzardo’s pitch usage after acquiring him at the trade deadline, but the results were a 6.44 ERA and 5.07 FIP across his final 12 starts spanning 57.1 innings of work. Once a top prospect, Luzardo is increasingly looking like a bust. 

Bullpen

Name	Throw	FIP- 2021	FIP- 2020	FIP- 2019	BABIP 2021	K%	BB%
Anthony Bender	RHP	77	–	–	.276	28.7%	8.1%
Anthony Bass	RHP	120	82	87	.268	22.3%	9.2%
Richard Bleier	LHP	73	64	86	.280	19.6%	2.7%
Steven Okert	LHP	105	–	–	.218	28.2%	10.6%
Zach Pop	RHP	91	–	–	.319	20.7%	9.8%
Louis Head	RHP	76	–	–	.216	23.9%	6.7%
Cody Poteet	RHP	137	–	–	.234	24.2%	12.1%
Daniel Castano	LHP	125	111	–	.284	14.1%	8.7%

In 2021, the Marlins bullpen ranked 6th in FIP (3.80), 17th in xFIP (4.29), 27th in strikeout percentage (22.0%), 5th in walk-rate (8.7%), and 8th in WHIP (1.26).

Anthony Bender was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball in 2021. He ranked in the 88th percentile in xwOBA, the 88th percentile in xERA, and the 83rd percentile in strikeout rate. He combined a high-90s sinker with an outstanding slider that held opposing hitters to a .233 wOBA, and generated a 45.2 percent swing-and-miss rate. Considering that last summer was his MLB debut, it stands to reason that he could be even better in 2022. He is virtually guaranteed to handle the 9th inning for Manager Don Mattingly.

Anthony Bass was not so good last summer, ranking in only the 28th percentile in xwOBA and the 28th percentile in xERA. He exhibited both poor swing-and-miss stuff and poor command–a recipe that resulted in his FIP being 20 percent worse than league average. Still, Bass owns a 3.59 ERA and a 4.16 FIP since the beginning of 2018. He is not well-suited for high-leverage, but he can be a relatively stable bridge piece for a decent bullpen unit.

Richard Bleier struck-out only 19.6 percent of batters he faced last summer, which seems to be a poor formula in modern baseball. Yet, Bleier finished the 2021 campaign ranked in the 88th percentile in xERA and the 88th percentile in xwOBA as a result of elite command and a rare ability to miss the barrel of bats. Last summer was not an outlier either–Bleier owns a career 2.96 ERA and a 3.53 FIP in 249.0 innings spanning six seasons. He is an underrated reliever in a league that only wants to celebrate pitchers who flirt with triple-digits on the radar gun.

Steven Okert finished last year with a 2.75 ERA, 3.13 xERA, and a 4.34 FIP. He threw his slider 59.6 percent of the time, and it held opposing hitters to a .205 wOBA. His fastball and sinker remain far too hittable, but he is a solid middle relief option in an emerging Fish arm barn.

Zach Pop finished the year with rather mediocre numbers, but lost in his end of season statistics is the fact that he posted a 1.99 ERA and a 2.91 FIP from July 18th to the end of the regular season. In that span, he walked only seven batters and did not allow a home run. Significantly increased velocity on his slider was the main reason for the spike in success during the latter half of 2021. That figures to be an adjustment that can easily be carried over to 2022.

The Marlins do not have the gaudy names or contracts that the New York Yankees have in their bullpen, but this unit has an abundance of quality arms nonetheless. In 35.0 innings for the Tampa Bay Rays last summer, Louis Head turned in a 2.31 ERA, 2.94 xERA, and a 3.11 FIP. Both his fastball and slider held opposing hitters to a .233 wOBA or less. There is not an extensive track record of success here, but anyone that graduates to the big-league level with the Rays has undoubtedly figured out something that works.

Cody Poteet made seven starts for the Fish in 2021 before suffering a season ending knee injury. In 30.2 innings in the rotation, he posted a 4.99 ERA, 5.06 xERA, and a 5.62 FIP. He figures to work in low-leverage situations as a bulk innings eater in 2022.

Daniel Castano was not impressive in 20.1 innings at the big-league level last year, posting a 4.87 ERA, 6.44 xERA, and a 5.14 FIP. He figures to be a fringe option on the roster in 2022.