Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Odds, Pick, & Prediction (5/8/22)

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Brewers vs. Braves odds, previews each team, and delivers a free pick for Sunday’s game. Make sure to use our Caesars bonus to get $1100 first-bet insurance!

Brewers vs. Braves Odds

This afternoon, the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves will conclude a three-game set at Truist Park. Milwaukee won on Friday by a final score of 6-3, but Atlanta rebounded for a 3-2 victory on Saturday. In the rubber match, the Brewers will send Aaron Ashby to the hill, who will be opposed by Charlie Morton. Oddsmakers anticipate the Braves earning a series victory, pricing them as -120 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers

Through his first 19.1 innings of work in 2022, Aaron Ashby owns a 2.33 ERA, 3.57 xERA, 3.65 FIP, 25.9 strikeout percentage, and a 15.3 percent walk-rate. In two starts this year, Ashby has allowed only one earned run across 9.2 innings, though he has walked nine batters in those two outings. On Sunday, Ashby will need to exhibit much better control if he wants to give Milwaukee an opportunity to earn a victory.

Across the last two weeks of action, the Brewers have been one of the best hitting teams in baseball, ranking 2nd in OPS, 2nd in ISO, 15th in walk percentage, and 26th in strikeout percentage. However, it is worth noting that Milwaukee’s nine games prior to their weekend series against Atlanta came against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs, and Cincinnati Reds. This offense has been excellent of late, but their numbers are likely inflated significantly as a result of playing some of the worst teams in the league.

Entering play on Sunday, the Brewers have no bullpen usage issues to report. Josh Hader has only thrown 19 pitches since Tuesday. Brad Boxberger and Devin Williams have thrown a combined 29 pitches in that span, and neither threw the ball on Saturday. Everyone in this arm barn should be rested and available for this one.

Atlanta Braves

Charlie Morton has struggled mightily to the tune of a 6.85 ERA, 5.10 xERA, and a 5.36 FIP through his first five turns in the rotation in 2022. His strikeout and walk percentages both rank in the 19th percentile or worse so far this year. Both his whiff percentage and chase rate rank in the 11th percentile or worse. Though Morton’s velocity and spin rates remain largely unchanged compared to 2021, an inability to paint the corners has landed the veteran hurler in hot water on numerous occasions early in the new campaign. There is little reason to expect him to turn things around on Sunday based on what we have seen so far from him this season.

Morton also lacks a powerful offense behind him. Across the last 14 days, the Braves rank 22nd in OPS, 14th in ISO, 11th in walk percentage, and 28th in strikeout percentage. Facing southpaws this season, Atlanta ranks 11th in OPS, 4th in ISO, 6th in walk percentage, and 26th in strikeout percentage. However, this is still a lineup that has scored three runs or less six times in their last 12 contests.  

Kenley Jansen and A.J. Minter were called upon on Saturday to put the finishing touches on a 3-2 victory. Neither pitcher had thrown since at least Wednesday prior to yesterday’s action, making them available once again on Sunday, if needed. Tyler Matzek, Collin McHugh, and Will Smith are each similarly rested and available as needed in the series finale.

Free MLB Betting Pick For Today

Though Morton has struggled significantly to begin the year, he is still good enough to keep the Braves competitive in this contest. Only once in Morton’s first five starts has he allowed more than four earned runs, and only once has he failed to complete at least five innings of work. Ashby’s command issues figure to be particularly problematic against a patient Atlanta offense that excels against left-handed pitching. Expect this to be a high-scoring affair, but for the Braves to do enough to earn a win.

• PICK: Braves Moneyline (-120)