Milwaukee Brewers Futures Odds: Will Burnes Defend Cy Young?

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida previews Milwaukee Brewers futures, including Corbin Burnes Cy Young odds, ahead of Opening Day. Get $1100 free bet insurance with our Caesars bonus!

Milwaukee Brewerers Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 91.5 Wins (-110)
• Best Regular Season Record: +1100
• Division Winner: -165
• To Make the Playoffs: -240
• National League Winner: +700
• World Series Champion: +1600

Pitching Preview

Brewers Cy Young Odds

Corbin Burnes (+800)

In 2021, Corbin Burnes finished in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity, 99th percentile in xwOBA, 99th percentile in xERA, 97th percentile in strikeout percentage, and the 92nd percentile in walk-rate. The result was an incredulous 2.43 ERA, 2.00 xERA, and a 1.63 FIP–good enough for the National League Cy Young award.

In 2019, Burnes featured his fastball 52.5 percent of the time, followed by his slider at a 31.0 percent usage, and a curveball at 7.8 percent frequency to comprise the vast majority of his arsenal. During the pandemic-shortened campaign, Burnes cut his fastball usage to 2.5 percent, instead–throwing his sinker 33.1 percent of the time, followed by a cutter at 31.5 percent, and his slider at 12.7 percent, with an increased usage in his changeup and curveball as well. Those adjustments led to a 2.11 ERA, 3.13 xERA, and a 2.04 FIP. In 2021, Burnes established his cutter as his primary pitch–using it 52.3 percent of the time. His curveball was thrown for 18.3 percent of his offerings, followed by his changeup, sinker, and slider–each at roughly 9.0 percent frequency. Batters posted only a .280 wOBA against his cutter and a dreadful .114 wOBA against his curveball. His changeup, sinker, and slider each held hitters to a .229 wOBA or lower. Barnes generated an elite 32.1 percent swing-and-miss rate with his cutter, but it was only his fourth-best pitch when it came to getting batters to whiff. Aside from a healthy Jacob deGrom, there is not a more dominant pitcher in baseball right now. It would be shocking if Burnes was not in the Cy Young conversation later this fall. 

Burnes’ NL Cy Young odds are +550 on PointsBet Sportsbook, but you can get +800 odds at BetMGM.

Brandon Woodruff (+1200)

Brandon Woodruff would be the ace of almost every staff in baseball. He finished last season ranked in the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity, 83rd percentile in xwOBA, 83rd percentile in xERA, 86th percentile in strikeout percentage, and the 81st percentile in walk-rate. Most notably, from 2020 to 2021, Woodruff increased his curveball usage from 6.4 percent to 16.7 percent–a pitch against which batters posted a dreadful .155 wOBA. Woodruff’s worst pitch, his sinker, still held opposing hitters to a .295 wOBA–making it still a significantly better than league average offering. Simply, there are few, if any, holes in Woodruff’s repertoire. He is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball with little indication that it will change anytime soon.

Freddy Peralta (+6000)

It is going to be difficult for Freddy Peralta to win the National League Cy Young award, considering that he would need to leapfrog two pitchers on his own team to fight for the honor. Still, there is little doubt that Peralta has emerged as one of the most dominant starters in baseball. In 2021, he finished in the 88th percentile in average exit velocity, 95th percentile in wOBA, 95th percentile in xERA, and the 95th percentile in strikeout percentage. If there is one major weakness that he is yet to fix, it is a 31st percentile walk-rate. Peralta’s most significant adjustment from 2020 to 2021 was a heavy increase in how frequently he showcased his slider. His slider went from a 4.8 percent usage in 2020 to a 26.4 percent usage in 2021. Perhaps, Peralta was more comfortable in the pitch in 2021 because it was far more effective. Over a four inch improvement in vertical movement on his slider helped him hold opposing hitters to a .229 wOBA against the pitch last summer. Peralta is clearly the third best member of this starting staff, but he could be an ace for quite a few organizations.

Adrian Houser (+10000)

Adrian Houser finished 2021 with a 3.22 ERA, 4.12 xERA, and a 4.33 FIP. Houser’s ability to outperform his peripherals by nearly a full run seems to be a direct result of extremely good fortune on balls in play–an undeserved .259 BABIP. Further signaling regression is a 12th percentile strikeout percentage and a 20th percentile walk-rate. Prior to 2021, Houser had a career 4.13 ERA anda  4.18 FIP. His 2022 output will likely be more in-line with those numbers. Still, Milwaukee won 19 of the 28 games in which Houser appeared last summer, per Baseball Prospectus. It is hard to do better than that for a fourth member of a rotation that has three starts at the front-end.

Eric Lauer

Eric Lauer had a career-best campaign in 2021, but it was still underwhelming in many regards. Lauer managed a 3.19 ERA in spite of finishing in only the 25th percentile in average exit velocity and only barely better than league average in xwOBA, xERA, and strikeout percentage. He also benefited from a .249 BABIP, which is likely to correct itself in 2022. Lauer’s two primary pitches, his cutter and fastball, both surrendered a .325 wOBA or higher last season. An overhauled pitch mix featuring more frequent usage of his better pitches could yield better returns, but it remains to be seen if he is willing to make this adjustment, or even aware of this option, considering that his fortunes have been the same with his offerings for the majority of his MLB career.

Bullpen Outlook

In 2021, the Brewers bullpen ranked 18th in FIP (4.34), 5th in xFIP (4.05), 1st in strikeout percentage (28.1%), 23rd in walk-rate (10.7%), and 13th in WHIP (1.30).