MLB Best Bets and Parlay Picks for Friday (July 30)

Man… when it rains, it pours! One week ago, I was touting my 30-15 Bets of the Day record for the season. Today, I humbly report our 34-23 mark, after another unfortunate 1-2 day. Thank God it’s Friday, and we have a full slate of games to get us back in the swing of things. 

Who knows what happened Thursday? Gerrit Cole and the Yankees got obliterated by Luis Patiño and the Rays. Carlos Rodon got shut out by Carlos Hernandez and the Royals. At the same time players were getting shipped around in a frenetic pace prior to the trade deadline, a handful of box scores were tilting in bizarre fashions. 

But hey, we are still 11 games over .500, and ready to make an entrance to the weekend in style, with some MLB picks for Friday. We don’t go on tilt over short-term hiccups, here—we just continue to do our due diligence, and the positive results will follow in the long run.

As always, all odds are from BetMGM. All stats are from MLB.com and Baseball Reference. 

MLB Picks, Best Bets for Friday

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals

Pitching Matchup: Ross Stripling vs. Daniel Lynch

MLB Bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+105) First 5 Innings

These melon-farming Royals have given me some consternation this week, somehow taking three out of four games from the AL Central-leading White Sox. Well, KC, I still don’t believe in you. And I definitely don’t like your chances of outscoring the hard-hitting Blue Jays in Toronto, especially in the first five innings. 

Ross Stripling may not have strong overall numbers on the season—3-6, 4.84 ERA, 1.288 WHIP—but he has quietly been very good throughout the past couple months. Since May 24, the veteran righty has eight starts in which he allowed two or fewer earned runs. In that same span, he has completed at least five frames in nine of ten games. 

Royals rookie Daniel Lynch, meanwhile, has been brutal in three of his first four professional starts. His ERA sits at 7.88, and his WHIP is 1.750. His opponent slash rate is .348/.384/.530. He allows hard contact 48.3 percent of the time, and surrenders an average exit velocity of 90.7 miles per hour. 

Lynch did post a strong eight innings of shutout ball against Detroit his last time out, but the Blue Jays are a stark contrast from the Tigers. Vlad, Marcus, George, Cavan, and Teoscar teed off against at Fenway Park Thursday—with the Jays clobbering the first-place Sox 13-1. Expect a similar result at Rogers Centre Friday night against the Royals, who will be brought back to Earth in dramatic fashion. I still don’t trust Toronto’s bullpen quite yet—with or without new acquisition Brad Hand—but I like the Jays to take a lead into the sixth inning. 

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks 

Pitching Matchup: Tony Gonsolin vs. Zac Gallen

MLB Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-115) 

The Dodgers have gone 2-5 in their last seven games against the first-place Giants, and LA president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has responded accordingly. The reigning champions promptly acquired superstar pitcher Max Scherzer and five-tool shortstop Trea Turner in what Jeff Passan called “the blockbuster of blockbusters.” https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1420911145758691330?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet The Dodgers also landed pitcher Danny Duffy in a separate deal.

Watch out, world. LA seems to be as “all-in” as a franchise can get (look at all the poker references on a Friday!). Now the Dodgers travel to Arizona, to start a three-game series against a club that just shipped out an All-Star in second baseman Eduardo Escobar. Talk about a tale of two teams—LA’s on a shopping spree while Arizona is selling on clearance.

The statistical disparities are glaring in this matchup, too. The Dodgers, who rank second in the MLB in scoring and RBI, have 105 more runs and 107 more RBI than the D-backs on the season. Los Angeles also ranks first in ERA (3.20), and second in strikeouts (1031), WHIP (1.13), and opposing batting average (.214). Arizona ranks second-worst in ERA (5.28) and WHIP (1.45), third-worst in strikeouts (802), and dead last in BAA (.271). 

Making matters worse for the Desert Snakes, presumed ace Zac Gallen has struggled since his return from multiple injuries this season. In his six starts since being activated from the IL in mid-June, Gallen has eclipsed five frames just once. In that same span, he has allowed 18 runs in 24 innings, including a four-inning, seven-run implosion at Wrigley Field his last time out. 

Tony Gonsolin may not exude the same star power as some of his teammates, but he has been efficient as all get-out. The 25-year old is 2-1 this season, with a 2.38 ERA and 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He does issue a free pass 14.3 percent of the time, but he limits hard contact and always gives his Dodgers a chance. 

Los Angeles should be able to dominate this one on the mound and in the batter’s box. It has two superstars heading into town, Mookie Betts returns this weekend, and Corey Seager should finish his rehab assignment soon. I would attack the Dodgers’ run line with confidence today, and start looking at LA’s World Series odds to repeat now. 

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies 

Pitching Matchup: Ryan Weathers vs. Jon Gray

MLB Bet: Padres -190

Another squad that seems to be “all in” this season, and especially this week, is the San Diego Padres. GM A.J. Preller already acquired All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier from the Pirates, and now rumors are swirling around an impending deal for Twins ace Jose Berrios. Don’t look now, baseball fans, but the NL West has become the AL East of the National League. 

The Padres have been clicking on all cylinders offensively, and Frazier’s placement in the lineup has already made immediate dividends. Shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. has played like an MVP, second baseman Jake Cronenworth made his first All-Star Game, and third baseman Manny Machado has been raking. 

San Diego also benefits from the recent return of Ryan Weathers from injury. Just like Gonsolin for LA, Weathers has great numbers—a 4-2 record, 2.73 ERA, and 1.149 WHIP, for starters. A .227 batting average against looks pretty good, too. He should be able to contain a Rockies lineup that averages an MLB-worst 3.12 runs on the road. 

Jon Gray has a serviceable 6-6 record, 3.67 ERA, and 1.224 WHIP—not bad for a guy who pitches for a club with an 11-39 away record. But in 17.1 innings against San Diego this season, he has allowed 12 runs—six earned—on 15 hits and seven walks. Tonight should be a major test for Gray, and it’s one I don’t expect him to pass with flying colors.  

MLB Parlay for Friday

Toronto Blue Jays (-225) vs. Kansas City Royals (Ross Stripling vs. Daniel Lynch) – The Jays just hung 13 in Boston, and now they draw Daniel Lynch and the Royals back home in Toronto. Talk about a lock. 

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115) at Arizona Diamondbacks (Tony Gonsolin vs. Zac Gallen) – The Dodgers are serious about getting on San Francisco’s level, and they should be able to close the gap between the clubs this weekend. Arizona stands no chance in this game and series. 

San Diego Padres (-190) vs. Colorado Rockies (Ryan Weathers vs. Jon Gray) – The Padres are electric, they hand the ball to a good young starter in Ryan Weathers tonight, and they face an utterly abysmal road team in the Rockies. Book ‘em, Don O.

San Francisco Giants (-121) vs. Houston Astros (Kevin Gausman vs. Framber Valdez) – Not to be outdone, the Giants just seem to refuse to lose. Gausman deserves all the Cy Young smoke he will soon be getting, and he should be able to outduel the talented Valdez at home. 

Total Odds: +653
Bet: $100 | To Win: $653 | Total Payout: $753