MLB Best Bets: Three Picks for Friday (August 6)
It’s been a roller coaster of a week since the MLB Trade Deadline last Friday, and the fun should roll right into the weekend. Forget the Olympics—Baseball is front and center in the professional sports betting world right now, and rightfully so. The MLB is as healthy as it’s been in quite a long time, so let’s raise a toast to that as fans of the pastime.
Let’s hoist another toast to our MLB Bets of the Day, which stumbled a bit Thursday but still sit at a comfy 42-30 on the year. That’s a dozen games above .500, with the best—and in my opinion, bettor-friendliest stretch of the season yet to come. Cheers to a fruitful Friday, and may all your baseball parlays pay out!
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
Pitching Matchup: Lance Lynn vs. Kyle Hendricks
MLB Bet: White Sox -155
What better way to kick off a fantastic weekend of baseball than with a matinee of the Crosstown Showdown, with the AL Central-leading White Sox rolling into Wrigley Field with some swagger? This will be the 129th regular season meeting between the Sox and Cubs, with the South-Siders leading the all-time head-to-head series 65-63.
The Cubs look much different than they did a couple weeks ago—they have traded away Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Craig Kimbrel (the last of whom landed with the White Sox). One of the only remaining members of the 2016 Cubbies—the team that ended the organization’s 108-year championship drought—is Friday’s starter Kyle Hendricks.
Cubs’ faithful, you’re probably breathing into a bag right now… but fret not! Jed Hoyer has an actual plan, and he’s not going about it all willy-nilly. To avoid sucking two years from now, you kind of had to commit to sucking right now. As Bill Belichick would say, it is what it is.
While we are dishing out the hard truth to Cubs Nation, we might as well tell you straight up that the White Sox are going to beat the Cubs Friday afternoon. Jose Abreu is starting to look like his 2020 MLB self again. Tim Anderson has started raking, as well. Eloy Jimenez is settled back in the lineup after a long IL stint. And the Sox just lost two-out-of-three games to the Royals, so this club will come in fired up and looking for a win.
Making matters worse for David Ross’s club, Lance Lynn is practically unbeatable during the day this season. The veteran is 4-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.878 WHIP in day games. He has pitched 41 innings across seven matinee games (5.85 IP per start), and struck out 46 of the 161 batters he has faced in those contests (28.5% strikeout rate) while only issuing 11 walks (6% BB rate).
Hendricks may lead the MLB in wins (13-4), and the run he went on earlier in the season was straight-up spectacular (10 wins in 12 starts, eight straight Ws from May 16-June 22). But he’s slowed down substantially over the past month and a half. The veteran ace has just three wins in his last seven starts, and he’s allowed nearly eight baserunners per game in that stretch. I love the ChiSox in this game (and this series), and fully expect the Cubbies to get smacked around.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Gibson vs. Marcus Stroman
MLB Bet: Phillies +1.5 (-175)
Both these pitchers have enjoyed phenomenal 2021 seasons, and I’d be tempted to bet the UNDER on the 9-run total here. But I’m even more interested in Philly -110 to win, and the most interested in the Phillies +1.5 at -175.
Who doesn’t like extra security when betting a rivalry game and pitcher’s duel? The Phillies have won six of their last eight games—and they just swept the Nationals—but their average winning margin over that four-game sweep was just two runs. The Mets have a lot more firepower than the recently fire-selling Nats.
Plus, Stroman’s a beast. The 30-year old has a 2.80 ERA and 1.131 WHIP on the season, despite a tough-luck 7-10 record. If he played for a team with a better offense (and better luck), he might have made the NL All-Star team. I expect the veteran righty will keep this one close.
Then again, Stroman could just as well get blown up. He gave up four runs on eight hits at home against Cincy his last time out, and got bounced in the fourth inning the last time he faced the Phillies. As good as his overall peripherals may look, he is still inconsistent against high-level offenses, never mind on the road. An already-hot Bryce Harper could be licking his chops at the opportunity to record his first hit in nine tries against Stroman.
I like Philly to win or lose by less than two runs. Sam Fuld’s deadline-investment in Gibson has already paid dividends—the first-time All-Star won his Philly debut at Pittsburgh Sunday, allowing two earned runs on five hits in 6.2 innings. I’m fairly confident he will get the win outright, but I’m really confident he will at least help keep this one close.
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Weathers vs. Caleb Smith
MLB Bet: Padres -0.5 1st 5 Innings (-145)
I always go back to the Padres, my favorite NL squad and my preseason dark horse to win it all. I hate their -200 moneyline Friday night, so I delved deeper on BetMGM and came up with a “1st 5” prop. All we need is for Ryan Weathers and the Padres to lead after five frames at home against the D-backs? Sign me up.
The Padres are a world-class offense with everything clicking, especially with recently-acquired All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier inserted into the top of the order. Now MVP candidate Ferndando Tatis Jr. has an elite contact hitter and baserunner batting ahead of him, and a blistering hot slugger in Manny Machado batting behind him. Talk about plate security!
The D-backs have shown some feistiness lately, so I’ll throw them a bone and shy away from San Diego’s run line at -105. Weathers rarely goes the distance, but he usually gives the Padres four or five strong innings. I trust him way more than Caleb Smith, and I trust the Padres blindfolded more than I trust Arizona’s offense on the road. The D-backs are an MLB-worst 13-41 in away games this season—cue the Don Orsillo excited yelling voice, because San Diego’s winning tonight!
MLB Parlay Picks
Chicago White Sox (-155) at Chicago Cubs (Lance Lynn vs. Kyle Hendricks) – I’m taking the better of the Chicago clubs in the Crosstown Classic, with the better (and hotter) ace in Lynn.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105) vs. Washington Nationals (Kyle Muller vs. Erick Fedde) – The Nats just shipped out every star except Juan Soto, and the Braves are hot as the Atlanta sun right now. This one could get out of hand.
Houston Astros (-250) vs. Minnesota Twins (Zack Greinke vs. Bailey Ober) – I always like to throw at least one easy-peasy, stone-cold lock into my parlays. Here’s one, with the top offense in the MLB at home against Bailey Ober. Write that W in permanent ink right now.
San Diego Padres (-200) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Ryan Weathers vs. Caleb Smith) – I took Padres with a lead after five innings as my third Bet of the Day, but I’ll take them on the moneyline as the fourth leg of my parlay. At home against the worst road team in the league, it’s hard not to pick Slam Diego.
Total Odds: +575
|Bet: $100 | To Win: $575 | Payout: $675|