Free Expert Picks: MLB Player Props, Best Bets For Today (COL vs. LAD)
Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida gives his best MLB player props picks for today’s Dodgers vs. Rockies game — Tuesday, July 5, 2022.
| Rockies Odds | +184 |
|---|---|
| Dodgers Odds | -220 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Tuesday, July 5th |
| Time | 10:10 pm EST |
| TV | SNLA |
On Tuesday evening, the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers will battle in Hollywood. Los Angeles emerged victorious in the series opener on Monday by a final score of 5-3. Tonight, Colorado will send German Marquez to the hill, who will be opposed by Ryan Pepiot. MLB Oddsmakers anticipate Los Angeles securing a series victory, pricing them as -220 favorites on the moneyline.
Let’s take a deeper look at the starting pitching matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this contest.
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Dodgers vs. Rockies Player Props, Picks And Preview
German Marquez Picks
- Over 2.5 earned runs (-145, DraftKings)
- Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100, FanDuel)
German Marquez enters play with a 5.89 ERA, 4.90 xERA, 4.98 FIP, 18.7 strikeout percentage, 8.5 walk percentage, and a 1.54 WHIP. In 15 starts this year, Marquez has allowed three earned runs or more on 12 occasions.
Most recently, he took the hill at Coors Field against the Dodgers, allowing five earned runs and eight baserunners in only 3.1 innings of work. The poor showing capped off an abysmal month of June, during which Marquez posted a 5.29 ERA, 5.67 FIP, 19.4 strikeout percentage, 11.4 walk percentage, and a 1.47 WHIP.
A hyper-proximity matchup against the same formidable Los Angeles lineup is not likely to help him improve on these numbers much, if at all. Across the last two weeks, the Dodgers rank 3rd in all of baseball in OPS and 4th in ISO. The return of Mookie Betts to the lineup over the weekend only further bolsters an already dangerous offensive attack.
Bettors would be wise to short-sell Marquez as much as possible in this one. We recommend taking the over on his earned runs at DraftKings Sportsbook and the under on his strikeout prop at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Ryan Pepiot Picks
- Over 2.5 walks (+130, DraftKings)
- Under 4.5 strikeouts (-125, DraftKings)
Mitch White was originally slated to start this contest for Los Angeles, but Ryan Pepiot will instead get the nod. Pepiot has not fared well in his brief Major League tenure, with a 3.18 ERA, 4.38 xERA, 5.41 FIP, 25.0 strikeout percentage, 21.2 walk percentage, and a 1.50 WHIP in three starts.
His command issues are unlikely to go away, considering that he has posted a walk rate north of 10.0 percent in each level of the minor leagues as well. The issues have been particularly noticeable against left-handed batters, who own a 25.0 walk percentage against the young right-hander.
Fortunately, for Pepiot, the Rockies are one of the more heavy right-handed hitting lineups in baseball. Still, Colorado ranks 11th in the league in walker percentage across the last two weeks of action. Getting Pepiot’s walk prop at plus-money – it is hard not to bite on the over.
Pepiot has also struggled to generate swings-and-misses at the big-league level, with only a 16.7 strikeout percentage against right-handed batters in 2022. The Rockies have been one of the better contact teams in recent weeks, ranking 2nd in strikeout percentage over the last 14 days. The under 4.5 strikeouts has immense value here.