MLB Odds and Betting Picks for Wednesday (August 4)
The 2021 MLB season roars on toward the finish line, and our Bets of the Day are chugging right along. We nailed our picks yesterday, going 2-1 to push our season-long record to 39-27. It’s a great time to be a baseball fan, and an even better time to be a sports bettor.
Let’s keep riding this hot streak, and hit Hump Day with a vengeance on the sportsbooks. If we keep doing our due diligence, the sky is the limit for our potential winnings from here through the rest of the season.
As always, all odds are from BetMGM. All stats are from MLB.com and Baseball Reference.
MLB Betting Picks for Today
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Pitching Matchup: Shohei Ohtani vs. Kolby Allard
MLB Bet: Angels -1.5 (-105)
The Angels may be one game below .500 (53-54), but they have many reasons to be excited. For starters, they have two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, who currently sits atop the AL MVP odds board. Second-year stud Jo Adell just got recalled from the minors, and proceeded to go 3-4 with three RBI, two doubles, and a steal in his 2021 debut yesterday. The Halos slaughtered the Rangers 11-3 in Game 2 of their four-game tilt with Texas. And future Hall of Famer Mike Trout should be back in action within the next month.
Meanwhile, the Rangers do not have as much cause for optimism. Texas has a 39-68 record, the third-worst winning percentage in the MLB (.364). The Rangers just parted ways with slugging All-Star outfielder Joey Gallo and All-Star pitcher Kyle Gibson at the trade deadline. They have gone 4-13 since the midseason break, with a brutal 10 consecutive losses immediately following All-Star weekend. For Texas, the excitement factor is provided by rookie Adolis Garcia—odds-on favorite to win Rookie of the Year—and not much else.
Kolby Allard has seen his ERA slip-and-slide out of control since late June. A healthy 2.93 ERA on June 19 has turned into an abysmal 5.23 today, thanks in large part to 22 earned runs across a four-game stretch in July. He has surrendered 25 hits and seven longballs in his past four outings.
Ohtani, meanwhile, has been a smooth operator on the mound. The Japanese sensation has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his past 12 starts, and he showcases a crisp 3.04 ERA and 1.161 WHIP. Ohtani has gone six or more innings in eight of his last 11 starts, and opponents are slashing just .191/.294/.314 against him on the year. He’s a stud, and the Halos are a lock.
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Pitching Matchup: Lucas Giolito vs. Carlos Hernandez
MLB Bet: White Sox -1.5 First 5 Innings (-115)
The ‘First 5 Innings’ props on BetMGM have done me well lately, and I think this one will prove fruitful as well. I don’t want the smoke of Chicago’s -2.5 run line or -275 moneyline, but I also don’t want to pass up on a strong first-place team at home against a 45-60 Royals team.
Giolito had a less-than-stellar start to his 2021 season, but he has been solid the past couple months. He has gone six-plus innings in 13 of his last 15 starts, and has surrendered three or fewer earned runs in 11 of his last 13. He has taken his ERA from 5.68 in late April to 3.67.
Second-year Royals pitcher Carlos Hernandez might have some trouble with the White Sox, who rank as the sixth-best scoring team in the MLB. Hernandez has given up 19 earned runs in 34.1 innings this season, and his ERA and WHIP are bloated to the tunes of 4.98 and 1.515.
Hernandez did have a strong start against the ChiSox last time out in Kansas City, pitching six innings of shutout baseball and giving up just four hits. But Tony La Russa’s guys are great at adjusting to pitchers, and they are far better at Guaranteed Rate Field than on the road. I’ll take Chicago, who should improve upon their MLB-leading 38-18 record at home.
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Matchup: Kevin Gausman vs. Zac Gallen
MLB Bet: Giants -1.5 (-110)
I started the fantasy baseball season with both these pitchers on my roster, but only Gausman remains as of today. Gallen has battled injuries all season, and looks like a shell of his former self on the mound, while Gausman is a bona fide Cy Young candidate. I would back San Fran against Arizona in just about any pitching matchup, but this one is an A++.
Gausman has impressed with just about every statistical category in his breakout age-30 season. He’s 9-6 (tied for sixth-best in the MLB), and he has a 2.35 ERA (5th) and 0.95 WHIP (5th). He also has the sixth-most strikeouts in the majors with 149, and he has only walked 39 batters. Gausman has delivered a quality start in 14 of his 21 games this season.
While Gausman has seen career-best marks, Gallen has suffered unprecedented personal lows. The Diamondbacks ace is just 1-5 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.359 WHIP. He has 69 strikeouts and 27 free passes in 56.2 innings. Gallen’s strikeout rate (27.5%) is the lowest of his three-year career, and his home run rate (3.2%) is his highest. His hard-hit rate (41.6%) and average exit velocity (88.2 mph) are drastically higher than ever.
The Giants have absolutely mashed this season, and now they have All-Star Kris Bryant injecting new pop into their lineup. This team deserves to be taken more seriously, and should be a lock to win by two tonight. If you want extra security, go with San Fran -185 on the moneyline.