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Eys Breakers (4/8/22): MLB Props Preview & Best Bets Today

Keith Eyster Fri 4/8 1:27pm PT
Image Credit: Imagn

MLB betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best prop bets to target Friday, April 8th in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

Baseball!! The season kicked off yesterday and seven games are in the books. 

We have some afternoon baseball already underway with Boston/New York the featured matchup this afternoon after being postponed due to inclement weather yesterday. 

The expectation yesterday was we would see some shorter pitch counts to open the season and that played out mostly as expected. 

Notable aces like Corbin Burnes (83 pitches) and Shane Bieber (72 pitches) failed to top 90 pitches. Yu Darvish saw the most work of the day with 92 pitches over 6 no-hit innings. 

These lower pitch counts to begin the season will prevent us from heavily targeting pitcher strikeout props that will eventually be a major part of our analysis as the season progresses. That does not mean we do not have spots to target early in the season, but rather we just need to be more selective. 

For example, Max Scherzer has been dealing with hamstring tightness and had his start pushed back a day. I will not be targeting Scherzer today in a winnable matchup versus his former team due to the uncertainty surrounding his health and workload. 

We also have a split slate with only 5 games this evening further limiting our options. However, there are a couple spots I want to break down to get our feet wet this season. 

Let’s find some decent MLB odds and get to the betting picks!

Free MLB Player Props For Today

Jose Berrios is the first up on the list today. He was acquired by Toronto at the trade deadline last year and now fronts their rotation after Robbie Ray left for Seattle in free agency. Berrios posted a 26.1% K rate last season, the highest K rate of his career. 

There are a few factors working against Berrios today. For his career he owns a 23.9% K rate. Projection systems peg Berrios’ true K rate anywhere from 23.3% (THE BAT) to 24.8% (ZiPS), while Steamer and FanGraphs fall somewhere in the middle. Sure, it is possible Berrios took a step forward last year and we will see improved strikeouts from him again this year, but it is not a certainty.

Additionally, his matchup today is against the Texas Rangers. They spent big on their offense this offseason adding Corey Seager (14.9% K rate vs. RHP last year) and Marcus Semien (18.8% K rate vs. RHP last year). 

The projected lineup for Texas today struck out at a cumulative 21.5% versus right-handed pitching last year. 

The final issue is the aforementioned short pitch counts we expect in a pitcher’s first start of the season. Derek Carty’s THE BAT projects Berrios for just 82 pitches today. 

Checking the Odds Compare tool over here at ScoresAndOdds, we can see Berrios has a line of 5.5 strikeouts across the various sportsbooks. I like the under here given the pitch count concerns, potentially low-strikeout opponent, and a spike in his K rate last season that may or may not carry over to his first start this season. 

My favorite pitcher on the slate this evening is Charlie Morton. Last season, Morton returned to where it all started with the Atlanta Braves. He posted his third consecutive sub-3.00 ERA in addition to a 28.6% K rate, contributing a great deal to Atlanta’s World Championship run. 

His first start this season comes against the depleted Cincinnati Reds. The Reds lost Nick Castellanos to Philadelphia in free agency and traded away Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez and Tucker Barnhart. 

Morton actually had reverse splits last year limiting lefties to a .255 wOBA and striking out an elite 32.4% of left-handed batters. The Reds will roll out 4 lefties against him this evening. 

Morton’s strikeout prop line sits at 5.5 across the industry. THE BAT projects him to throw 88 pitches today which should give him enough leash to reach at least 5 innings pitched. I like him to go over 5.5 strikeouts today with the plus matchup. 

We have a long baseball season ahead of us and I do not want to get too aggressive this early in the season. I had intended to write up Manaea under 5.5 strikeouts, but his line opened at just 4.5 making it a pass for me. If it opens at 5.5 anywhere, I would take the under there against a low-k Diamondbacks team. 

I do like Joe Ryan over 4.5 strikeouts, but I will pass on him as well as he is a young guy I could see Minnesota being very careful with early in the season. 

That is gonna wrap it up for today with the short evening slate. We will have plenty of opportunities throughout the season, but we just have these two play for today: 

Friday’s Player Prop Betting Card

Hooray for baseball being back! Good luck with your bets today!

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