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Eys Breakers (4/13/22): MLB & NBA Props Preview & Best Bets Today

Keith Eyster Wed 4/13 1:12pm PT
Image Credit: Imagn

MLB betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best prop bets to target Wednesday, April 13th in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

We have a big slate of MLB games already underway this afternoon with plenty of weather landmines out there. 

KCR/STL has already been postponed, CLE/CIN has already announced a delay, there is a heavy threat of delay in BOS/DET, and SEA/CHW has a heavy threat of postponement tonight. 

The weather and early start times leave us very thin on MLB props today, so I will be mixing in some NBA props for the play-in games tonight. 

There is one standout spot this evening in MLB. 

Free MLB Betting Picks For Today

Corbin Burnes gets an excellent matchup against an Orioles team that struck out at 24.3% last year – 7th worst in baseball. 

The lineup currently projected on RotoGrinders lineups page struck out at a 25.9% rate versus right-handed pitching last season. 

Burnes is an elite strikeout pitcher who posted a 35.6% strikeout rate last season on his way to the National League Cy Young Award. 

He struggled a bit in his start on opening day, but this matchup is too good to be scared off by one shaky outing to begin the season. 

He made it up to 83 pitches in 5 innings against the Cubs. He allowed 3 runs and 3 walks, while striking out only 4. 

We should be able to expect somewhere in the range of 90 pitches for his start tonight. 

In addition to Baltimore’s high strikeout rate, they also have a very low walk rate which could help protect us against Burnes’ command not quite being in top form. 

The solid pitch count, high-strikeout and low-walk matchup should be plenty for Burnes to go over 6.5 strikeouts today. 

The other spot I am targeting for MLB tonight is Shane McClanahan against the Oakland Athletics. 

Oakland gutted its roster over the offseason with trades of Matt Olson and Matt Chapman, while Mark Canha and Starling Marte departed in free agency. They are left with an extremely inexperienced and strikeout-prone lineup. 

McClanahan was very good for Tampa Bay in his debut season. He posted a 27.3% strikeout rate over 125.1 innings. 

The primary concern with him is how deep he will be able to pitch into this game, as he threw only 68 pitches in his first start this season over a very effective 4.1 innings. He finished with seven strikeouts and two walks against the Baltimore team we just discussed. 

His matchup today is similarly good and he should be able to flirt with the 80-pitch mark in his second start.  

I am willing to take a chance on over 6.5 strikeouts, despite the limited pitch count. We can get this line at plus money and the matchup and ballpark are excellent. 

Free NBA Betting Picks For Today

Moving over to the NBA, we have 2 games tonight. Atlanta hosts Charlotte and New Orleans hosts San Antonio in a pair of elimination games. 

Atlanta continues to play without John Collins and gets a matchup against Charlotte who has struggled on defense all season. 

They have particularly struggled defending the three-point line allowing the 4th most attempts and 8th best percentage (36.2%) from deep. 

Bogdan Bogdanovic has been shooting heavy volume from beyond the arc. He has averaged 8.4 three-point attempts and 3.7 makes over his last 10 games. 

Bogdanovic has made at least four threes in six of his last ten games, so I love the over 3.5 three-pointers made here at plus money.  

I am also interested in Trae Young over 3.5 threes made, but fear Charlotte may make stopping Young a priority in this game. We have seen him willing to distribute when that is the case. For that reason, I prefer the better odds for Bogdanovic tonight. 

In the other game, New Orleans looks like they will get Brandon Ingram back in an up-tempo matchup with San Antonio. 

The Spurs played at the sixth-fastest pace in the league this season and ranked 16th in defensive rating, so I like this spot for the Pelicans offense.

Brandon Ingram has been the leader of this team when he has been active alongside McCollum and Valanciunas. The Odds Compare shows the best line is over at FanDuel where we get a slight discount on the rest of the market. 

Ingram leads the team in usage at 29.2% with McCollum and Valanciunas on the floor, while averaging 23.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists per-36 minutes. 

I expect the Pelicans main three to see a lot of floor time together tonight, and we could easily see over 36 minutes for Ingram in this one. 

I will take him over 35.5 PRA with the pace of this game and a plus matchup in a win-or-go-home game. 

Today’s Free Player Prop Betting Card

That will do it for the breakdown today. We found a couple props to target on a short MLB evening and added a few from the NBA play-in games:

Enjoy the action on tap for this evening and good luck with your sports betting!

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