Eys Breakers (4/15/22): MLB Props Preview & Best Bets Today
MLB betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best prop bets to target Friday, April 15th in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!
We have a full slate of MLB props to analyze tonight!
Weather in Chicago is keeping me away from Dylan Cease despite liking the matchup. Temperatures in the 40s and light rain in the forecast offer too many variables to target this spot.
Let’s get to the betting picks!
Free MLB Betting Picks For Today
Milwaukee started the season slowly dropping three of four games despite facing the Cubs and Orioles. They have since righted the ship with three wins in a row. Tonight, they send Freddy Peralta to the mound to take on Miles Mikolas and the Cardinals.
Peralta has been one of the better strikeout pitchers in baseball in his young career. Last season he posted a 33.3% strikeout rate over 144.1 innings.
The Cardinals do not offer the easiest matchup, but they should have a few higher strikeout bats in the lineup with Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill and Paul DeJong.
The line is what has me most interested here as it feels a strikeout too low.
Peralta was all the way up to 88 pitches in his first start of the season. He lasted only 4 innings as he walked 4 and struck out 6 against the Cubs.
The control is the biggest concern here, but even when battling wildness in his first start he was able to log 6 strikeouts.
The Cardinals are not the most patient team. Last season they walked at only 8% which was 24th in baseball. Their low walk rate should help Peralta pitch deeper into this game.
He should have 90-95 pitches in the tank today and I like him to go over 5.5 strikeouts.
Tarik Skubal is the next pitcher I want to break down. The young Tigers lefty battled inconsistency last year, but he did post an above-average 25.9% strikeout rate in 149.1 innings.
He gets a matchup with the Kansas City Royals today who actually had the third lowest strikeout rate in baseball last year.
Despite that low strikeout rate they do project to have three hitters in the lineup who struck out at 28.6% or higher versus lefties – Hunter Dozier, Adalberto Mondesi, and Michael Taylor.
They also project to bat rookie third baseman Bobby Witt Jr. in the second spot. Witt Jr. struck out at 22.5% in AAA last year despite dominating the league, and has struck out at 32% over his first 25 MLB plate appearances this year.
One final point about the Royals lineup, Andrew Benintendi really struggled with left-handed sliders as he whiffed on 43.6% of them he saw last year. Skubal deploys his slider 43.2% of the time versus left-handed batters.
Skubal made it up to 79 pitches in his first outing and should be good for 85-90 pitches today.
He struck out 3 White Sox over 4 innings in that start as they touched him up for 4 runs. The White Sox have been among baseball’s most dangerous teams versus LH pitching in the last few years.
The plus money on the over makes that the value side here. I think Skubal can build upon his first start in a very tough matchup and find success against this Royals team today. I like him to rack up at least 5 strikeouts along the way.
The Toronto Blue Jays will be giving Ross Stripling a spot start as they opened the season with 10 straight games with no off days. He is essentially their 6th starter and is not expected to remain in the rotation.
Stripling has made two appearances this season and both of them lasted just 1 inning. He threw 8 pitches on 4/8 and 24 pitches on 4/10, both against Texas. He did not record a strikeout in either outing.
I assume Stripling threw on the side between his last outing and today’s scheduled start, but he could not have realistically built up to more than 40ish pitches. That would put him on track to throw 55-60 pitches today at most. THE BAT projection system agrees as he currently is projected for a median pitch count of just 52 pitches.
Oakland is a team we will target overs on opposing pitchers strikeout props often this season, but this is not the spot.
Stripling had just a 21.8% strikeout rate last season and he would need to be extremely efficient in this one to reach 4 strikeouts. Take the under.
Free MLB Prop Betting Card For Today
- Freddy Peralta over 5.5 Strikeouts (-146, FanDuel)
- Tarik Skubal over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120, Caesars)
- Ross Stripling under 3.5 Strikeouts (-122, FanDuel)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets!