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Eys Breakers (4/18/22): MLB Props Preview & Best Bets Today

Keith Eyster Mon 4/18 12:06pm PT
Image Credit: Imagn

MLB betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best prop bets to target Monday, April 18th in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

There were 10 games on the MLB schedule today, but there is plenty of weather to be concerned about and one early afternoon game. 

Minnesota Twins/Boston Red Sox is the early game and already underway. 

Brutal Weather Concerns

Chicago White Sox/Cleveland Guardians and Arizona Diamondbacks/Washington Nationals have already been postponed due to the weather. 

San Francisco Giants/New York Mets and Tampa Bay Rays/Chicago Cubs also have significant weather trouble looming. A real bummer because there were pitching targets to love in both of these games. 

Alex Cobb was a lock to be a target today. I still think it is viable because his line sits at only 4.5 strikeouts (he had 10 in his first start), but I can’t officially recommend him with such a high chance of rain shortening his outing. I would have had interest in Tylor Megill on the other side of this game as well.  

Make sure you pay attention to Kevin Roth’s weather report over at RotoGrinders. If he gives starting pitchers the thumbs up in New York, I would jump on the over for both Alex Cobb and Tylor Megill. I have personally already bet Cobb over 4.5 strikeouts because I think he can get there even in a shortened outing, but the safe play is to get confirmation the weather is good. 

*WEATHER UPDATE: Monday’s Mets vs. Giants game (Alex Cobb, projected starting pitcher) has been postponed.*

Shane McClanahan is a pitcher we will be targeting for strikeouts often this year, and he gets the Cubs today. He was also on the list of targets, but temperatures in the 30s, winds around 20 MPH and potentially even snow make it hard to target this spot. 

So, that leaves us with just five games to target MLB odds for this evening. Let’s get to the betting picks!

Free MLB Betting Picks For Today

Sean Manaea is off to a brilliant start for the Padres. He recorded seven strikeouts over seven shutout innings in his first start of the year against Arizona. He followed it up with six strikeouts in six innings with 2 runs against San Francisco. He threw just under 90 pitches in both of those games so we have a nice floor here. 

Manaea gets a home matchup against the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds traded away Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez and Tucker Barnhart this offseason. They also saw Nick Castellanos leave in free agency. 

Their current projected lineup struck out against righties at a 23.8% rate with six batters having a strikeout rate above 25%. 

Manaea posted a strikeout rate of 25.7% last season and has a 28.9% strikeout rate through two starts this season. 

This is a great matchup for a pitcher in good form early this season. Give me the over at plus money. 

Let’s move over to Manaea’s former team the Oakland Athletics.

Frankie Montas takes the ball today in a matchup with the Baltimore Orioles. Montas had a rough start in Philly to open the season as he allowed five runs over five innings, but he did still manage to strike out 6 and throw 92 pitches. 

His second start went much better in Tampa Bay. He threw 89 pitches over 6.1 innings allowing two runs (one earned) and striking out six. 

Montas’ leash and command are both big positives for him early in the season, and his matchup today is as good as it gets. 

Baltimore is one of the worst offenses in baseball. Their projected lineup today had a 25.9% strikeout rate and only a 6.3% walk rate versus right-handed pitching last season.  

I like Montas to pitch deep into this game today and record at least 7 strikeouts. Take the over. 

Next up is Clayton Kershaw. What an impressive first start to the season for Mr. Kershaw. 

He tossed seven perfect (!) innings against the Minnesota Twins and recorded 13 (!) strikeouts. He was removed from the game after seven innings and only 80 pitches. 

The leash is certainly a concern, but a healthy Clayton Kershaw is someone I am willing to target. He certainly looked healthy his first time out. 

Kershaw faces a very good Atlanta Braves offense today. Their projected lineup, which includes eight righties, struck out at only a 20.2% rate last season versus left-handed pitching. 

Digging into Kershaw’s splits, he actually struck out righties at a higher rate (30%) than lefties (25%) last season. 

He has been relying on his slider much more in recent seasons, throwing it 47.5% of the time last season. The result was his strikeout rate climbing to a four-year high of 29.5%. 

Against the Twins, he used the slider 51.3% of the time on his way to those 13 strikeouts. I am in for the return of Kershaw as an elite strikeout pitcher rather than the contact manager it looked like he was headed towards for the downside of his career. 

I expect him to continue to deploy the slider nearly half the time today and that should lead to plenty of strikeouts, even against the Braves. Give me the over on 6.5 strikeouts. 

Free MLB Prop Betting Card For Today

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB games this evening. We were able to find three strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today! 

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