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Eys Breakers (4/19/22): MLB Props Preview & Best Bets Today

Keith Eyster Tue 4/19 11:42am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

MLB betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best prop bets to target Tuesday, April 19th in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

We have a massive slate of 17 MLB games today, including two double-headers. The weather looks to be much more cooperative today than it was yesterday. 

Free MLB Betting Picks For Today

Let’s head over to Coors Field first, where the Colorado Rockies take on the Philadelphia Phillies. Coors is one of the best hitting environments in all of baseball. 

Kyle Freeland takes the ball for Colorado. He has made two starts this season and has yet to top the 75-pitch mark. 

His most recent start came at home in Coors Field where he was clearly pitching to contact. He allowed 5 runs over 5.1 innings and recorded just one strikeout. 

Freeland’s strikeout line is still 4.5 at FanDuel, while most other sportsbooks have moved it to 3.5. I am fine with the juice here as we are getting great value with the line a full strikeout higher than most of the market. 

Freeland posted just a 20.4% strikeout rate last year, and has to face a powerful Phillies’ lineup. 

The Phillies are also a patient team with their projected lineup posting a walk rate above 10% versus left-handed pitching last year. 

Freeland is likely to be limited to around 80-85 pitches today. If he struggles with command at all it could be a short day for him. I like the under here. 

Philadelphia will counter with Kyle Gibson, who has been a below-average strikeout pitcher in his career. He posted a 20.6% strikeout rate last year. 

He did record 10 strikeouts over seven innings in his first start of the season, but that was against a very bad Oakland offense. He had 6 strikeouts in 4.2 innings against a weak Marlins’ offense his second time out. 

Going into Coors Field is a much more difficult task. Most of the Rockies hitters are around a league-average strikeout rate. There are some 30+% guys at the bottom of the lineup, but Gibson will likely only be around to face each of those guys twice. 

Expect the strikeout rate to fall more in line with his 20% mark last year and take the under. 

Let’s move over to Houston where the Astros take on the Los Angeles Angels. 

Patrick Sandoval will take the mound for the Angels. He threw only 71 pitches over 4 innings against Miami in his only start of the season. He struck out 6 and walked 3. 

Miami was a much easier matchup than the Houston offense Sandoval faces today. The Astros are among the best contact teams in baseball. They struck out at a league-low 19.4% last year. 

Sandoval strikes out lefties at a slightly higher clip than righties – 27% vs 24% last year, but the three lefties he projects to face today are all very talented and handle same-handed pitching well. Tucker and Brantley struck out less than 13% of the time versus lefties last year, while Alvarez posted a .229 ISO and .449 wOBA against them. 

The plate discipline of the Astros also presents a problem for Sandoval who had a 9.9% walk rate last year. 

After throwing just 71 pitches in his first outing, Sandoval should be in the 80-85 range today at most. His manager also has one of the quickest SP hooks in the league so he could be well under that. 

The short leash and talented Astros offense has me on the under for Sandoval. 

Finally, we head out to Seattle where reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray will face off against the Texas Rangers.

It has been a bumpy start to the season for Ray. He was decent in his first start of the season allowing 1 run over 7 innings in Minnesota. He struck out only 5 and walked 4. 

He got touched up in his second run by the White Sox. Ray lasted 6.1 innings but gave up 6 runs. He struck out only 4 and walked 2. 

Ray’s first two matchups were very difficult matchups as both teams boast a lot of right-handed power. I think this line is a bit of an overreaction to his slow start. 

Ray has always been a high-strikeout pitcher. He has strikeout rates above 30% in four of the last five seasons, including 32.1% last year. 

The Rangers have not been a high-strikeout team to begin the season, especially against lefties. However, if we include a larger sample there are some strikeouts in the middle of this order. Garver and Garcia were both above 30% strikeouts versus lefties last season, and Lowe was above 26%. 

I like Robbie Ray to return to form tonight and strikeout at least seven Rangers. 

Free MLB Prop Betting Card For Tuesday

That will do it for the breakdown of today’s MLB slate. We were able to identify four pitcher strikeout props to target:

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!