Sign In Get the App $ $

Eys Breakers (4/20/22): MLB Props Preview & Best Bets Today

Keith Eyster Wed 4/20 12:13pm PT
Image Credit: Imagn

MLB betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best prop bets to target Wednesday, April 20rth in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

We have 16 MLB games scattered throughout the day. The White Sox and Guardians will play a double-header due to yesterday’s postponed game. 

The Alex Cobb injury yesterday was really disappointing to see. I was very interested in his outing against the Mets after he looked dominant in his first start this season. 

The sportsbooks were very slow to adjust for his new-found velocity and we had a massive edge on his strikeout props. Hopefully Mr. Cobb has a speedy recovery and comes back looking just as strong as he did in his Giants debut. 

Free MLB Betting Picks For Wednesday

Let’s stick with the Giants, as we look ahead to today’s games. Speaking of looking dominant, Carlos Rodon has been electric to open the season. 

Rodon opened the season with 5 innings against the Miami Marlins and allowed 1 run. He threw 89 pitches with 12 strikeouts and 2 walks.

His second start of the season came against the Cleveland Guardians. Rodon threw 90 pitches over seven innings and again only allowed one run. He recorded nine strikeouts and two walks. 

Through two starts his strikeout rate sits at 46.7%, a pretty good indicator that his career-high 34.6% strikeout rate from last year was no fluke. 

Rodon squares off against the New York Mets today in Citi Field, one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. 

The Mets projected lineup has a fairly strong 21.3% strikeout rate since the beginning of last season, but that is not going to scare me off Rodon and his elite strikeout ability. 

The RotoGrinders projected lineup includes 8 batters that will swing from the right side of the plate. Rodon actually has a higher strikeout rate to righties than lefties – 36.1% vs 33.1% – since the beginning of last season. 

We should get around 90 pitches again from Rodon which should allow him to pitch deep into the game. I like him to go over 7.5 strikeouts. 

We are going to stay in Citi Field for our next target. The Mets will counter with Chris Bassitt, who they acquired in a trade with Oakland over the off-season. 

Bassitt had a breakout season last year at age 32. He saw his strikeout rate climb to a career-high 25.0% over 157.1 innings. 

He may be on the verge of taking another step up in the strikeout department as well. He recorded 8 strikeouts over 6 innings in his first start at Washington, and another 6 strikeouts over 6 innings versus Arizona. 

Through two starts, his strikeout rate on the season sits at 31.8%. I think Bassitt is going to make another leap in strikeout rate again this season due to his shift in home parks. 

He is coming over from Oakland, which is a great pitcher’s park as well. However, due to its massive amount of foul territory, The Coliseum is actually a downgrade for strikeouts.  

Bassitt faces the Giants, today, who are a very patient team, but Bassitt has great control with a 6.1% walk rate last season. 

The Giants have plenty of strikeouts on the team with today’s projected lineup checking in with a 26.1% strikeout rate since the beginning of last season. 

Six batters have strikeout rates above 24%, with three of them coming in above 32%. 

The Giants are a team that loves to platoon their hitters, but Bassitt has a neutral strikeout split – 25.2% vs 25.4% since last season – so I am not concerned with the number of lefties he may face today. 

Give me the over on 6.5 strikeouts for Bassitt. 

Next, we head over to Fenway Park in Boston where the Red Sox take on the Toronto Blue Jays. 

Jose Berrios takes the ball for Toronto, and he has had a rough go of it through two starts this year. 

He got blown up for four runs in his first start of the season and didn’t make it out of the first inning. 

His second start was better, but he still allowed three runs in five innings to the Yankees. He finished with 80 pitches and five strikeouts. 

Berrios has been a strong strikeout pitcher in his career, but never an elite one. 

The Red Sox boast power and patience throughout their lineup and Fenway is one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. 

A lot will need to go right for Berrios to make it through six innings today, and I think that is what it would take for him to go over 5.5 strikeouts. Take the under here. 

On the other side of this game, the Red Sox send Nick Pivetta to the mound. 

He has also struggled in his first two starts this season. He allowed four runs to the Yankees in 5.2 innings his first time out, and he allowed four runs in just two innings to Minnesota. He has not topped 80 pitches yet this season. 

The Blue Jays are a low-strikeout, high-walk team and that presents a problem for Pivetta who owns a 9% walk rate in his career. 

Pivetta allows power to both sides of the plate and I think the Blue Jays get to him early and often in this one. Even if they don’t hang early runs on Pivetta, their patience should cause deep counts with Pivetta’s shaky control.

 I don’t think he lasts beyond four innings in this one and I like him to stay under 4.5 strikeouts today. 

Free MLB Strikeout Prop Card For Wednesay

That will wrap up today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to find four pitcher strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your betting picks today!

•