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Eys Breakers: MLB Prop Bets, Expert Picks For Friday (5/13/22)

Keith Eyster Fri 5/13 11:46am PT
Corbin Burnes MLB prop bets today.
(Image Credit: Imagn)

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Friday, May 13, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!

We have a full 15-game schedule in MLB today with no games starting before 6:30 PM ET. 

Weather looks to be cooperating across the country with St. Louis as the only potential trouble spot. According to RotoGrinders’ Kevin Roth, storms are expected to stay west of the park and the game should play fine, but it is a spot to monitor. 

Free MLB Prop Picks For Today

Corbin Burnes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-154)

After struggling in his opening day start, Burnes has returned to his elite form from last year that vaulted him to the NL Cy Young Award. He has a 34.2% strikeout rate and just a 5.5% walk rate through six starts this season. His 18.5% SwStr% and 34.9% CSW% both rank second in MLB. There is no doubt Burnes is one of baseball’s elite strikeout pitchers. 

The good news keeps flowing as we look into his matchup with the Marlins. Miami has struck out at a 23.6% rate this year and plays in one of the better pitcher’s parks in baseball. The projected lineup for the Marlins includes five of the top six batters with a strikeout rate above 23% this season, and Burnes has a great chance to face them all at least three times. 

Burnes’ strikeout prop line is at 8.5 at most books, so the 7.5 line at FanDuel provides tremendous value. I like Burnes to go over 7.5 strikeouts today. 

Kevin Gausman Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+120) 

Kevin Gausman has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the first month of the season. He has run through a gauntlet of opponents to begin the season, including Cleveland, Houston, Boston (twice), New York and Texas. 

His first start was the shakiest as he allowed 3 runs in 5 innings against Texas. Since that start, he has thrown at least 5.2 innings and not allowed more than 2 runs in any matchup. He averaged 8.2 strikeouts per start in those 5 outings.

The strikeout rate sits at 31.3% for the season and he has allowed just one walk all year. He owns baseball’s best swinging strike rate among qualified starters at 18.9%.   

Tampa Bay has been an above average offense this season, but they have still struck out plenty. Their 23.8% strikeout rate is the tenth highest in baseball, and it takes a jump to 25.8% when facing right-handed pitching. Their projected lineup contains six batters who have struck out at 27% or higher vs RHP this season. Four of them are over a 30% strikeout rate with two above 40% this season. 

Gausman’s elite control and strikeout rate should allow him to successfully navigate this lineup and pitch deep into the game. He also gets a ballpark boost going from Toronto into Tampa Bay. I like him to go over 7.5 strikeouts tonight.

Kyle Freeland Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160) 

Kyle Freeland will make his seventh start of the season today in Coors Field against the Kansas City Royals. He owns an 18.6% strikeout rate on the season, but there are some splits that suggest he may have trouble with strikeouts today. 

For the season, Freeland has struck out 23.7% of left-handed batters and just 16.7% of right-handed batters. His career numbers line up with his season split almost identically, 23.8% strikeouts vs LHP and 16.4% vs RHP. 

The Royals project to roll out seven right-handed batters against him today. The two lefties are high-contact bats in Andrew Benintendi and Nicky Lopez. 

In addition to the handedness splits for Freeland, he also has the unique task of pitching his home games at altitude. This season, he owns a 25.0% strikeout rate on the road and just a 15.2% strikeout rate in Coors Field. His career split is not as drastic so take this one with a grain of salt, but I thought it was noteworthy. 

The Royals have struggled to a league-worst 76 wRC+ to begin the season, but they still have the lowest strikeout rate in the league at 19.6%. Their projected lineup today has struck out at just an 18.7% rate this season versus left-handed pitching. 

I see a lot of balls being put in play today for the Royals, and if BABIP isn’t on Freeland’s side he may give up some runs and see an elevated pitch count leading to a shortened outing. 

I am willing to pay the juice to get the higher number. Give me Freeland under 4.5 strikeouts against the high-contact Royals. 

Daulton Jeffries Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-148)

Finally, we head out to Oakland where the Athletics take on the Los Angeles Angels. 

Daulton Jeffries will make his seventh start of the season for the Athletics. He has had a rough season thus far and it doesn’t get any easier today.

Jeffries has managed just a 15.0% strikeout rate this season which is only a slight improvement from his 13.8% strikeout rate last year. He has not recorded more than 4 strikeouts in any of his starts this season. 

He also has a short leash as a young starting pitcher. He has not thrown over 5 innings or 90 pitches in any of his six starts. 

The Angels are a difficult matchup and have arguably been the top offense in baseball this year. They rank first in wOBA at .334, first in wRC+ at 124 and second in ISO at .178. 

They have struck out at the fifth highest rate in the league, but I expect them to have success against Jeffries and knock him out of the game before the end of the 5th inning. The low strikeout rate and shorter outing should be enough to keep Daulton Jeffries under 4.5 strikeouts. 

Friday’s MLB Prop Card

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify four pitcher’s strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!