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Eys Breakers: MLB Prop Bets, Expert Picks For Today (5/10/22)

Keith Eyster Tue 5/10 11:10am PT
Justin Verlander MLB props presents betting opportunity today.
(Image Credit: Imagn)

Betting analyst Timothy Buell gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Tuesday, May 10, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo to begin betting baseball props now!

We have a full schedule in MLB today. All 30 teams are in action with Oakland and Detroit getting us started with an afternoon double-header. 

The weather looks good across the country again, so we don’t have to worry about any impact there. 

We get started with a former Cy Young winner in a good matchup.

Free MLB Prop Picks For Today

Justin Verlander Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)

he Houston Astros travel to Minnesota to take on the Twins as Justin Verlander makes his sixth start of the season for Houston. 

Verlander has looked like his old self posting a 1.93 ERA, 2.89 xERA and 3.13 xFIP. 

The velocity looks to be about where we expect, but if you could knock one thing, his strikeouts are down slightly from his peak form. Verlander has posted a 26.3% strikeout rate after he posted an elite 35.4% strikeout rate in his last full season in 2019. 

He is still getting strikeouts at an above average rate, just not at the elite levels to which we had been accustomed. If you had to point to one reason, it looks as though his slider has not been quite as sharp. His swinging strike rate is down at 9.7% after being above 16% in 2019. 

The good news is he gets a good, potentially great, matchup against the Twins. Minnesota is dealing with several injuries and we should get a weaker lineup than usual. Miguel Sano and Trevor Larnach are on the IL, and Luis Arraez is on the COVID IL. Carlos Correa is day-to-day with a finger injury and already said he was unlikely to play today. Byron Buxton is also dealing with a hip injury, although he is expected to play. 

The injuries leave the Twins with a lineup that projects to have Gary Sanchez and Nick Gordon hitting in the middle of the order. They have a 24.3% strikeout rate as a group versus right-handed pitching this season. 

Verlander threw over 100 pitches in his last start and has historically had one of the longest leashes in the league. He should be able to navigate the lineup successfully and pitch deep into the game. 

I like him to record over 6.5 strikeouts today. 

Yusei Kikuchi Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-144)

The Toronto Blue Jays head to New York to take on the Yankees in an AL East showdown. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for Toronto. 

Kikuchi has been decent for the Jays considering the gauntlet of offenses he has matched up with in his first five starts. The problem is it doesn’t get any easier for him tonight. This will be his third start already this season against the Yankees. 

Kikuchi had a very good start his last time out against these Yankees. He threw 6 innings of one-run baseball and recorded 7 strikeouts against just 1 walk.

That start was in Toronto, but now he has to go back into Yankee Stadium where his first start did not go quite as well. He allowed 3 runs (2 earned) in just 3.1 innings and recorded only 2 strikeouts. 

The Yankees can run up a ton of right-handed power against Kikuchi which has been his biggest struggle. He has allowed a .220 ISO to RH batters in his MLB career. 

The Yankees lineup does contain some strikeouts, but they also have several hitters in the projected lineup with low strikeout rates. LeMahieu, Rizzo, IKF, and Higashioka have all struck out less than 17% versus left-handed pitching this season. 

If he struggles with the power bats it could be a short outing for Kikuchi. I think he has trouble making it out of the fifth inning and stays under 5.5 strikeouts

Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)

Next, we head out to Seattle where the Mariners take on the Philadelphia Phillies. 

We have a great pitching matchup between two aces in Aaron Nola and Robbie Ray. 

Nola has made 6 starts for the Phillies this season and recorded a 3.38 ERA. Estimators say he has been a little unlucky this year with his xERA sitting at 2.59 and his xFIP at 2.56. The skills have been elite as Nola has racked up a 31.1% strikeout rate with only a 4.5% walk rate. 

The Mariners have been good on offense to begin the season with a wRC+ of 112. They have struck out at a rate of just 21.4% this year. 

However, there are some strikeouts in the projected lineup and I think Nola can take advantage of them. Suarez, Rodriguez, Kelenic and whoever starts at catcher would all bring 30%+ strikeout rates to the lineup. 

The other thing Nola has on his side is a long leash. He has lasted at least 6 innings in each of his last 3 starts, and he was allowed to cross the increasingly rare 100-pitch mark in his last start. 

His elite control and long leash should allow him to pitch deep into the game. I like him to strike out at least 6 Mariners tonight.

Robbie Ray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-128)

On the other side, Robbie Ray takes the ball for the Mariners. It has been a bit of a rocky start for the reigning AL Cy Young winner. He has a 4.38 ERA and the strikeout rate is all the way down at an uncharacteristically-low 20.3%. 

I am expecting some strikeout regression for Ray in this one as he owned a 29.2% career strikeout rate coming into this season. His velocity is down, but that should not lead to a nearly 12% drop in his strikeout rate from last year. 

This matchup could help him get back on track as he looks to avoid the Phillies power by inducing some swing-and-miss. The Phillies projected lineup has struck out at a 24.8% rate versus left-handed pitching this season. They have 5 batters in the middle of the lineup with strikeout rates at 25.9% or higher vs LHP. Harper is at nearly 32% with Schwarber approaching 40%.

Ray is another guy with a long leash and he was also over 100 pitches in his last start. He will need to limit the walks and the home runs to reach the late innings. I think he is able to limit the damage and go over 6.5 strikeouts. 

Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)

Finally, we head out to Arizona where the Diamondbacks take on the Miami Marlins.

Jesus Luzardo looks to continue his breakout as he makes his sixth start of the season. He has posted a 3.08 ERA with even better estimators – 2.75 xERA and 2.89 xFIP. 

Luzardo has posted an elite 33.3% strikeout rate so far this season. The leash also appears to be lengthening for the first time in his young career. He has thrown at least 87 pitches in each of his last four starts, including a season-high 98 pitches his last time out. 

He gets a matchup against the struggling Diamondbacks lineup who have managed just an 83 wRC+ and have struck out at a 25.1% rate this season – fourth highest in MLB. 

If Luzardo can limit the walks, he should be able to make it through 6 innings and go over 5.5 strikeouts. 

Today’s Best Player Props

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify five pitcher’s strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today! 

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