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Eys Breakers: MLB Prop Bets, Expert Picks For Today (5/9/22)

Keith Eyster Mon 5/9 11:48am PT
Syndergaard makes today's MLB prop picks.
(Image Credit: Imagn)

Sports betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best MLB prop bets to target Monday, May 9, in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

We have a light schedule in MLB today with 11 games on tap. Two of them got started early this afternoon, so that leaves us with 9 games this evening. 

The good news is there does not seem to be any weather concerns.  

Let’s start out in Anaheim where the Los Angeles Angels take on the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Free MLB Player Prop Picks For Today

Noah Syndergaard Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)

Noah Syndergaard gets the start for the Angels.

Syndergaard has had a great season so far with a 2.63 ERA and 3.06 xERA through 4 starts. The one thing he is not doing though is producing strikeouts. He has just a 14.5% strikeout rate on the season with 14 strikeouts in 24 innings this year. 

On paper, the Rays look like an excellent matchup for strikeouts as their projected lineup has accumulated a 28.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching this year. If we zoom out and include last year for a larger sample, they still own a 26.8% strikeout out. 

However, that projected lineup includes 6 left-handed or switch-hitting batters. Syndergaard has struck out lefties at an even lower rate of just 12.5%. 

He has only recorded 6 strikeouts in one start this year and that was against a very strikeout-heavy Baltimore team. Give me the under 5.5 strikeouts for Syndergaard today. 

Paul Blackburn Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-150), OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+116)

Next, we head over to Detroit where the Tigers host the Oakland Athletics. 

Paul Blackburn looks to continue a breakout season with his 6th start of the year. 

Blackburn has hit for us twice already this year and the books still have not adjusted to his increased strikeout ability this season. He has increased his strikeout rate to 25% this season after posting just a 12.8% strikeout rate over parts of five seasons to begin in his career. 

The strikeout jump comes with heavy support from the underlying data. The velocity is up nearly 2 mph and the swinging strikeout rate has doubled from 6.0% last year to 12.1% this year. 

He also gets a great matchup today against Detroit. The Tigers own the fourth highest strikeout in baseball this season at 25.1%. Their projected lineup has struck out a 26.7% rate versus right-handed pitching this season and includes a whopping five batters who have struck out 30% of the time or more. 

The biggest concern for Blackburn is the leash. He threw just 67 pitches in his last start after running into some trouble in the 5th inning versus Tampa Bay. He did get up to 84 pitches in the start prior, so if he can have a clean outing he has the ability to at least reach that number again.  

I am willing to pay the juice and take him over 3.5 strikeouts. I also like his chances to pitch deeper into this game against a weaker opponent, so I am also taking him over 4.5 strikeouts at plus money. 

MacKenzie Gore Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)

We head back out west for our next target, as the San Diego Padres take on the Chicago Cubs. 

MacKenzie Gore makes the fifth start of his young career. 

Gore has lived up to the hype as one of baseball’s best pitching prospects. He owns a 1.71 ERA and 25.9% strikeout rate through his first four starts. 

Perhaps, the most surprising thing I found when analyzing Gore is that he has thrown at least 100 pitches in each of his last two starts. That’s a surprising number for any pitcher in 2022, let alone a prized youngster like Gore. 

Gore has made it through 5 innings in each of his starts with his best outing coming in a ten-strikeout performance against the Reds. He only recorded 2 strikeouts in his last start, but that was against Cleveland who owns the second lowest strikeout in baseball so far this year. 

Today, Gore gets a matchup against the Cubs who have the tenth highest strikeout rate. Their projected lineup has a strikeout rate of 24.8% versus left-handed pitching this season. We especially want to see Wisdom (33.3%) and Hermosillo (46.4%) with their huge strikeout rates in the lineup. 

With Gore’s surprisingly long leash and good matchup, I like him to go over 5.5 strikeouts tonight. 

Carlos Rodon Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Finally, we stay on the west coast with a matchup in San Francisco between the Giants and the Colorado Rockies. 

Carlos Rodon has been one of baseball’s best pitchers this year as he makes his 6th start tonight. 

Rodon is an early front-runner for the NL Cy Young as he has posted some incredible numbers through 5 starts this year. He owns a 1.55 ERA backed up by a 2.02 xERA and has struck out a ridiculous 36.9% of the batters he has faced. 

He faces a Colorado team who has not struck out much this year, but they do get the benefit of playing their home games at altitude where breaking pitches are not as effective. 

They go on the road today and face one of the best breaking balls in baseball in Rodon’s slider. Rodon has generated a healthy 41.5% whiff rate on his slider and throws it nearly 30% of the time. 

He also has one of the longest leashes in baseball as he has not thrown less than 89 pitches in any start this season. He has thrown at least 95 pitches in each of his last 3 starts including a season-high 104 pitches against Oakland. 

Rodon should pitch deep into the game and I like him to go over 6.5 strikeouts on his way. 

Monday’s Eys Breakers, Best Bets

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to find five pitcher’s strikeout props to target, including a double dip on one of our early season favorites: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today. 

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