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MLB Strikeout Prop Bets, Expert Picks For Today (5/16/22)

Keith Eyster Mon 5/16 10:37am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Monday, May 16, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!

What a wild day in the NBA yesterday. Both Game 7 matchups resulted in blowouts with a particularly surprising outcome in Phoenix as Dallas completely dominated the Suns. Some of the Luka/Booker memes floating around the interwebs this morning are outstanding. 

We have reached the midpoint of May, so I wanted to take a quick look at where we stand so far. After a slow start to the month, it has been a great stretch over the last twelve days. The overall record for May sits at 20-13, +5.11 units. Let’s keep this momentum rolling into the second half of the month. 

We have 13 MLB games on the schedule for today. There are some weather concerns in New York with the Mets and Cardinals game, but it looks like everything else should play without issues. 

MLB Expert Prop Picks For Monday

Luis Severino Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+130)

Let’s get started in Baltimore, where the Orioles welcome the New York Yankees to town for a four-game set. 

Luis Severino has looked good so far in his return from injuries that cost him the majority of the last two seasons. He owns a 4.08 ERA through six starts this season, but estimators show he has been a little unlucky. His xERA sits at 3.06 and his xFIP is at 3.36. He struck out 25.0% of batters while walking 7.3%. 

Severino was up to 97 pitches in his last start where he struck out 8 Toronto batters over 4.2 innings. The control is still a little shaky which elevated his pitch count and prevented him from pitching deeper, but the strikeouts were great to see. 

Today, he gets a matchup with the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles have struck out at a 24.5% clip this season, the 7th-highest rate in the league. Their projected lineup contains five hitters who have struck out over 25% of the time. 

Severino’s strikeout rate was over 28% in his last two fully healthy seasons, and I think he is working his way back to being that pitcher again. Last start was a good indicator he is close to being back to that guy. 

If he can take another step with the control, while maintaining the strikeout rate, he should be able to pitch deep against this below-average Baltimore offense. I like him to go over 5.5 strikeouts tonight. 

Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Next, we look to Milwaukee, where the Brewers take on the Atlanta Braves. 

Freddy Peralta will make his seventh start of the season for the Brewers. 

Peralta has pitched to a 4.40 ERA in his first six starts, but underlying metrics indicate he has been quite a bit better than that. He has a 3.43 xERA and 3.10 xFIP, while the strikeouts still sit at an elite 30.6%.

Walks have long been the biggest issue for Peralta, and they still sit at a lofty 8.9% this season. He has been able to work around them in the past thanks to his elite strikeout ability. 

The matchup against Atlanta today is not as difficult as one might assume. The Braves have actually struck out at the highest rate (25.9%) in MLB and have only a 98 wRC+ on the season. Their projected lineup has 3 batters over 30% strikeouts this year, and 7 of them are above 21.5%.  

The line on this prop at FanDuel is a full strikeout lower than most of the market, so we are getting good value. Peralta has over 6.5 strikeouts in each of his last 3 starts and I think he does it again today. 

Sandy Alcantara Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)

Down in Miami, the Marlins host the Washington Nationals, and Sandy Alcantara will make his eighth start of the season. 

Alcantara has gotten great results this year with a 2.74 ERA, but the strikeouts are down – 21.6% this year vs 24.0% last year – and the walks are up – 11.1% this year vs 6.0% last year. 

He has never been a big strikeout guy and today he takes on the Nationals who have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 19.9%. 

Additionally, Alcantara has struck out righties at a higher rate than lefties throughout his career – 18.8% vs LHB, 24.1% vs RHB. The split is closer this season than it has been in the past, but his strikeout rate is still 2% higher to righties this year. The Nats project to send up 6 lefties against him today. 

If the walks continue to be an issue for Alcantara, I don’t see him making it past the 6th inning. I will take him under 5.5 strikeouts in this one. 

Alex Wood Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-149)

Finally, we head out to Coors Field in Denver, where the Rockies take on the San Francisco Giants. 

Alex Wood takes the mound for the Giants in his seventh start of the season. 

Wood has been solid for the Giants with a 3.60 ERA and 23.4% strikeouts, but pitching Coors is one of the most difficult assignments for any starting pitcher. This is especially true for sinkerballers like Wood. He has used his sinker 52% of the time this season. 

The Rockies also own the seventh-lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 20.8%. Their projected lineup today has stuck out at just 18.5% versus left-handed pitching this season. 

Wood just faced the Rockies in his last start and recorded only 4 strikeouts over 5.1 innings. That start took place in San Francisco which is a much more pitcher-friendly environment than the spacious Coors Field. 

I think he stays under 4.5 strikeouts again tonight. 

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify four strikeout props to target: 

Just a reminder, make sure to check out the rest of our FREE betting advice under our news section! Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today! 

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