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Eys Breakers: 5 MLB Strikeout Prop Picks For Friday

Keith Eyster Fri 5/27 11:35am PT
betting experts backing Woodruf's strikeout MLB player prop on Tuesday.
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster (36-21, +14.89u in May) gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Friday, May 27, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!

We have 14 games on tap tonight in Major League Baseball. This is another loaded pitching slate with talent all over the board. 

Weather looks to be mostly clear for the evening, with Washington a possible exception. There are slight risks in a few other spots, but nothing that looks too threatening. 

Let’s get started in Detroit, where the Tigers continue their four game series with the Cleveland Guardians.

Free MLB Expert Picks For Friday

Shane Bieber Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-104)

Shane Bieber takes the ball for Cleveland in his ninth start of the season. 

Bieber has not quite been the same guy this season as he was while doing elite work over the past few seasons. The strikeouts are down at 24.1% after being above 30% the last 3 years. The main reason is his velocity has not quite recovered after the shoulder injury that shortened his 2021 season. He has still been a solidly above-average pitcher, just not quite elite. 

The good news is he gets an outstanding matchup today against a Detroit team he just faced in his last outing. Bieber struck out 10 Tigers over 7 innings in that one. Detroit projects to roll out a lineup that has struck out a 27.8% rate versus right-handed pitching this year. Seven batters in the projected lineup have a strikeout rate over 26%. 

Bieber has one of the longest leashes in baseball. He has thrown at least 100 pitches in four of his last five starts. He should be able to pitch into the late innings again tonight, and I like him to go over 6.5 strikeouts. 

Garrett Whitlock Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-116)

Next, we head to Fenway Park where the Boston Red Sox take on the Baltimore Orioles. We have a couple of young, rising prospects matching up tonight. 

Garrett Whitlock will make the start for Boston for the seventh time this season. He also has four relief appearances on his ledger as he began the season in the bullpen. 

Whitlock has had a very strong season, with a 3.58 ERA that is backed-up by a 3.15 xFIP. The strikeout rate sits at a lofty 29.0% and the walks are at 7.2%. 

The main concern is the pitch count. He only threw 71 pitches in his last start against Seattle, and he has not thrown more than 82 pitches in an outing this season. We are banking on efficiency here as he is unlikely to pitch deep into this game. He certainly has shown the skills to get there in 4 or 5 innings this season. 

The matchup against Baltimore is a good one. They have struck out at a 24.2% rate this year, which ranks seventh highest in MLB. They have also posted the third lowest wOBA and fifth lowest wRC+ on the season. 

Whitlock should be able to carve up this below-average offense and go over 4.5 strikeouts. 

Kyle Bradish Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-108)

On the other side of this game, Baltimore will send out a young prospect of their own as Kyle Bradish makes his sixth start of the season. 

Bradish has demonstrated some excellent skills in his debut season, but he has been very unlucky in the results department. The ERA is a lofty 5.74, but his 3.64 xFIP shows he has been much better than that. The strikeouts are above average at 24.8% and the walks are a very respectable 7.3%. 

Bradish has been over 3.5 strikeouts in each of his last 3 starts. The pitch count has been solid also as he has thrown at least 90 pitches in two of his last three starts. 

The matchup is far from ideal against a red-hot Boston offense in Fenway Park, but we are getting a discount on the line. I am confident in the pitch count and strikeout rate for Bradish even if he gets knocked around a little bit. 

He should be able to stick around long enough to go over 3.5 strikeouts. 

Brandon Woodruff Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-124)

Next, we look to St. Louis, where the Cardinals face off with a division rival in the Milwaukee Brewers. 

Brandon Woodruff makes his ninth start of the season for Milwaukee. 

Woodruff has been a bit more inconsistent than we are used to this season, but he has still been quite good overall. His 3.24 xFIP suggests his 4.76 ERA is a bit inflated and we should expect some positive regression in his results. The main culprit of his inflated ERA is a sky high .324 BABIP. His career BABIP was .285 coming into this year, and it has been .263 over the last two seasons. 

The strikeouts have been very strong at 28.7% as have the walks at 7.0%. He reached 100 pitches for the first time this season in his last outing, but he has thrown at least 89 pitches in every start this year. 

The matchup is not ideal against a high-contact Cardinals team, but the line has been appropriately adjusted. Woodruff has been over 5.5 strikeouts in each of his last six starts. 

We are counting on some length from Woodruff in this one to get there. The pitch count should be around 100 pitches and the regression of an unlucky BABIP this season should give him the length we need. I like Woodruff to go over 5.5 strikeouts. 

Sean Manaea Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)

Finally, we head west to San Diego where the Padres take on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Sean Manaea gets the start for the Padres. 

Manaea has put together a good start to the season for San Diego after coming over in a trade from Oakland. The ERA sits at 4.04, but the 3.46 xFIP suggests he has been a bit better. The strikeout rate is well above average at 27.6%. 

He faces one of the worst offenses in MLB tonight in the Pirates. Their .291 wOBA ranks sixth worst and their 86 wRC+ is fourth worst in baseball. They have struck out a rate of 24.2% this season, which is eighth highest in MLB. 

Manaea has also seen the pitch count rise to elite levels. After being under 90 pitches in his first four starts, he has thrown at least 90 pitches in each of his last four starts. He has been as high as 110 pitches in a start this year. 

He should be able to pitch deep into this game as he limits the damage against a weak Pittsburgh offense. I like him to go over 6.5 strikeouts along the way. 

Eys Breakers For Friday

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify five pitcher’s strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today! 

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