Eys Breakers: 3 MLB Strikeout Prop Picks For Wednesday

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Wednesday, May 25, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!

We have 13 MLB games on the schedule with the start times scattered across the day. We will focus on the 7 games starting at 6:40 ET or later for the picks today. 

Three of these seven games have potential weather issues lurking, so make sure you are monitoring Kevin Roth’s updates over at RotoGrinders. Atlanta looks to have the most risk, with Cincinnati and Chicago making the watch list as well. 

We get started in Chicago with the most talented pitcher of the day. 

Free MLB Expert Picks For Wednesday

Lucas Giolito Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)

The White Sox host the Boston Red Sox in Chicago, where there are some weather risks. Lucas Giolito takes the ball for the White Sox in his seventh start of the season. 

Roth thinks a late start is the biggest threat here, and the game should play dry afterwards if a pre-game delay is necessary. The White Sox get to make the pre-game call, and I trust them not to put their stud pitcher in a difficult situation if heavy enough rain to cause a delay is looming. The risk to our bet should be minimal as they either late start and play through, or they postpone the game and our bet gets refunded. 

Giolito has flashed electric stuff this season posting a 34.6% strikeout rate. He has recorded at least 7 strikeouts in four of his six starts this year. One of the starts he did not reach 7 strikeouts was his first start of the season when he only threw 61 pitches and finished with 6 strikeouts in just 4 innings. 

The matchup is a slight negative for Giolito. Boston has been around a league average offense with a 102 wRC+, and they have only struck out 21.1% of the time. Pulling in a larger sample size, Boston does have 4 batters in the projected lineup that have struck out over 26% of the time versus right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. I think they are due for some regression in the strikeout department and Giolito is a good guy to get that started. 

The leash is a big plus for Giolito as he has gone over 90 pitches in each of his last four starts.  He should be able to pitch deep into this game and limit the damage from the average Red Sox lineup. I like him to go over 6.5 strikeouts today. 

Charlie Morton Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-122) 

Next, we will flirt with more weather issues down in Atlanta. Charlie Morton makes his ninth start of the season and things have not gone well for him to this point. 

Morton has posted a 4.95 ERA this season, with a 4.81 xERA and 4.76 xFIP reinforcing his mediocre results so far. The strikeouts are all the way down at 20.7% this season and the walks are up at 10.6%. He has been better over his last few starts, but there is still something clearly off with him. He has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 5 of his 8 starts this year. He has only recorded 6 or more strikeouts in one start this season.

The Phillies have struck out at a healthy 24.0% rate this season, but they are an above-average offense with a 104 wRC+. Their .319 wOBA ranks 10th in MLB. I think they make Morton work today and he struggles with his pitch count again. 

Morton has averaged just 5 innings per start this year and I expect another short outing today. We also have the potential threat of rain causing a delay and shortening the outing for him. 

There is just too much here for Morton to overcome. I like him to stay under 5.5 strikeouts today. 

Reid Detmers Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Finally, we head out to Anaheim where the Los Angeles Angels take on the Texas Rangers. Reid Detmers makes his eight start of the season for the Angels. 

Detmers threw a no-hitter two starts ago and looks like one of the brightest young prospects in the game. However, I think there are several factors working against him today. 

First, Detmers was over-extended to 108 pitches in the no-hitter. We saw him struggle in his last start and the Angels cautiously pulled him after just 61 pitches. I think he will be on a very tight leash again today and tops out somewhere in the 80-pitch range. 

Additionally, he just faced this Texas team in his last start. He struggled with his command issuing 2 walks in only 3.2 innings, and he allowed 2 home runs as well. Texas was squaring him up all night as 7 of the 15 batters he faced recorded hard hit balls. 

Detmers elite strikeout rates from the minors have not translated yet to the big leagues. He owns just a 17.9% strikeout rate on the season. 

Texas has struck out around league average at 23.0% this season. Their projected lineup today has just a 21.1% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching this season. 

Given the potentially short leash, the low strikeout rate early in his career, and the tough strikeout matchup against Texas, I think Detmers stays under 4.5 strikeouts today. 

Eys Breakers For Today

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three pitcher’s strikeout props to target: 

• Lucas Giolito Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115, DraftKings)
• Charlie Morton Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-122, FanDuel)
• Reid Detmers Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110, DraftKings)

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!