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Eys Breakers: 4 MLB Strikeout Prop Bets For Tuesday

Keith Eyster Tue 5/31 11:54am PT
MLB player props for Today include Kirby.
(Image Credit: Imagn)

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB prop bets for Tuesday, May 31, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!

We have 16 games on the MLB schedule today including a double-header in Detroit. Only Game 1 of the Twins/Tigers double-dip starts before 6:10 ET, so we have a bunch of options to choose from today. 

Weather spots to keep an eye on include Chicago and Denver. There are a few other spots with slight delay risk, but nothing to be too concerned about. Kevin Roth has us covered with all the updates over on the RotoGrinders weather page. 

Let’s get started in Baltimore with the Orioles hosting the Seattle Mariners.

Today’s Best MLB Props

George Kirby Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-150) 

Rookie right-hander George Kirby gets the start for the Mariners in the fifth start of his career. Kirby has posted above-average strikeout rates and elite walk rates at each stop of the minors.

He has had some success translating those skills to the big leagues as he owns a 23.5% strikeout rate and 2.4% walk rate through his first four starts. 

Kirby was excellent in his debut against Tampa Bay with 7 strikeouts in 6 scoreless innings. The strikeouts dipped in his next two starts as he faced difficult matchups against the Mets and Red Sox. His last start against Oakland he flashed that elite strikeout potential again as he recorded 9 strikeouts in only 5 innings. He has yet to walk more than one batter in any start. 

The pitch count reached 90 in his last outing against Oakland as he was allowed to pitch through some bad BABIP luck. Kirby allowed 8 hits and 4 runs in the start, but only 1 barrel and 4 hard hits. He deserved much better results in the run prevention department. 

His matchup today against Baltimore is a good one. The Orioles have managed only a 91 wRC+ while striking out at a 23.5% rate and walking only 7.5% of the time. 

Kirby should have better luck on batted balls in this start and has a good chance to pitch past the fifth inning with his elite control and Baltimore’s poor walk rates. 

I don’t think he has any trouble going over 3.5 strikeouts. 

Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-161)

Next, we head north of the border to Toronto where the Blue Jays take on the Chicago White Sox. Kevin Gausman looks to continue his dominant season in his tenth start for the Blue Jays. 

It feels like I write up Gausman every time he makes a start. He has been so consistently great this season I have no intentions of breaking that habit. He owns a 2.25 ERA that is backed up by a 2.55 SIERA and 2.40 xFIP. His strikeout rate sits at 29.3% and the walks are down at an elite 2.3%. His 17.4% swinging strike rate remains the best in MLB among qualified starters. 

Gausman was over the 100-pitch mark in his last outing for the second time this season as he continues to have one of the longest leashes in baseball. He has been at 98 pitches or more in four of his last five starts. 

His matchup today against the White Sox is not ideal for strikeouts, but he should be able to pitch deep into the game. The White Sox have surprisingly been among the worst offenses in baseball. Their .288 wOBA ranks third-worst in the league and their 89 wRC+ ranks fifth worst. They also just lost one of their best players, Tim Anderson, to a groin injury. 

Gausman should be able to dominate this White Sox lineup and pitch into the late innings. I like him to rack up over 5.5 strikeouts along the way. 

Lucas Giolito Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-118)

On the other side of this game, Lucas Giolito takes the ball for the White Sox in his eighth start of the season. 

Giolito has been the ace of the White Sox staff with a 2.63 ERA, 3.00 SIERA and 2.90 xFIP. The strikeouts have been elite at 33.3%, while the walks have been elevated at 9.8%. His 33.1% CSW% ranks fifth among starting pitchers with over 30 innings. 

The leash has been among the best in baseball as well after ramping back up from an abdomen injury. He has been at 91 pitches or more in each of his last five starts, and he has been over 100 pitches in two of those starts. 

Giolito gets a tough matchup against a high-contact Toronto offense. However, the Blue Jays have been surprisingly average overall on offense with a 98 wRC+. Giolito has also had reverse splits in his career, so the 8 right-handed batters projected for the Blue Jays are not ideal. Giolito would get a slight bump if we get an extra lefty or two in the lineup today. 

Despite the right-handed-heavy matchup, I still think Giolito has success against Toronto today. He has recorded at least 6 strikeouts in six of his seven starts this year. If he can limit the walks and right-handed power to get through at least 6 innings, he should be able to go over 5.5 strikeouts. 

Cristian Javier Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-137)

Finally, we head out to Oakland where the Athletics host the Houston Astros. Cristian Javier will make his sixth start of the season after beginning the year in the Houston bullpen. Javier has turned in back-to-back 9 strikeouts performance in his last two starts. 

Javier may be on the verge of a breakout season as a starter after being a reliable swingman for Houston the last two years. He has been excellent rotation insurance when called upon, but he looks to be securing a full-time role going forward. 

The strikeout rate is an elite 33.1% and he has harnessed the walks down to 7.6% so far this year. Limiting the walks is the key to him pitching deeper into games. He has pitched into the sixth inning and thrown over 90 pitches in each of his last two starts. 

The matchup is great today against Oakland. The Athletics have struck out at 24% this season and have posted an 81 wRC+ which ranks second worst in the league. Their .271 wOBA ranks dead last. 

Javier also gets the safety of pitching in Oakland today where his flyball issues are unlikely to burn him thanks to the ballpark and the Athletics second-worst .115 ISO. 

He should be able to limit damage and pitch into at least the sixth inning again. I like him to go over 5.5 strikeouts today. 

Today’s MLB Prop Card

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate and its best prop bets. We were able to identify four pitcher’s strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today! 

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