NBA Expert Picks: Does Miami or Boston Win Game 1? (5/17/22)

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his expert picks and predictions for Tuesday, May 17th. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo for a $1000 free bet!

I’m not going to lie, I am still licking my wounds from the Suns game on Sunday. The Celtics were able to win their series against the Bucks and cover the spread in Game 7, so I was feeling far too confident heading into the Suns game. There are a lot of potential outcomes in a basketball game, but I did not see the Suns getting down 80-40 in the third quarter of a Game 7 at home. If that was on a Bingo card, I would have been waiting a very long time before I was able to yell out the famous word and collect my prize. 

We head into the Eastern and Western Conference Finals with a 36-31-1 record against the spread and a 9-3 record in the series bets. While those are very respectable numbers, I was a little too heavily invested in the Suns. I bet them to win the series, I bet them to win Game 1 and the series, and I bet on them to win in five games. We still have a small profit that we are working with, but Game 7 was essentially a 10-unit swing. We now enter the phase of the playoffs where we only get one game per night. 

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Expert Preview

If you are a fan of defense and hustle plays, you should be extremely excited for this series to start. In terms of defensive rating during the regular season, the Celtics were first and the Heat were fourth. When it comes to pace, both teams finished in the bottom eight in possessions per 48 minutes. While both teams are efficient on the offensive end of the floor, we should expect this to be a slow-paced series that features a lot of low-scoring games. 

The biggest edges for the Heat are that they are well rested and that they have home-court advantage. We shouldn’t hold this against them, but they have certainly had the easier path to the Eastern Conference Finals. They faced an injured Hawks team in the first round and then faced an injured Sixers team in the second round. To their credit, they beat Atlanta in five games and beat Philadelphia in six games. 

As you can see above, the Celtics have a lot of advantages on paper in this series. During the regular season, they were ranked higher in offensive rating and defensive rating. They committed fewer turnovers and the teams were very close in terms of rebounding rate. Boston was also the best team in basketball in the second half of the season and it wasn’t particularly close (looking at net rating and point differential). 

I’m siding with Boston in this series, even though they will have to win at least one game in Miami. I am siding with Miami in Game 1, as the Celtics have only had two days to prepare after beating the Bucks on Sunday afternoon.

NBA Expert Picks For Today

• Series Prediction: Boston 4-2
• Series Bet: Boston -185 (1.85 units), DraftKings
• Game 1 Pick: ATS: Miami -1.5, BetMGM