NBA Expert Picks: Will The Heat Stay Hot At Home? (5/19/22)

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his expert picks and predictions for Thursday, May 19th. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo for a $1000 free bet!

We picked up another win last night with the Warriors blowing out the Mavericks in Game 1. It wasn’t very competitive from the jump, as the Warriors got out to a 10-point lead at the end of the first quarter and never looked back. They say you live and die by the three-pointer and that has certainly been the case for the Mavericks in the playoffs. They have made more three-pointers than any team in the postseason, but were only 11-for-48 (22%) from the three-point line in Game 1. If the Warriors can defend the three-point line and keep their edge on the glass, they will be tough to beat in this series. We now head back to Miami for Game 2 between the Celtics and Heat. 

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat – Expert Pick & Prediction

The Celtics were hoping to be at full strength in Game 1, but Marcus Smart wasn’t able to play through a foot injury and Al Horford had to miss the game due to the league’s health and safety protocols. The Celtics outscored the Heat in the first, second, and fourth quarters, but still ended up losing the game by 11 points. It was a tough third quarter for Boston, as they could only muster up 14 points while allowing 39 points to Miami. 

There weren’t any glaring stats in the box score of Game 1. The Celtics and Heat had similar shooting numbers and were nearly identical on the glass. The Heat took better care of the ball and made 88% of their free-throws, which ultimately ended up being the difference in the game. As noted in the series preview, these are two of the slowest-paced teams in the league and two of the best defensive teams in the league. 

Smart is expected back for Boston in Game 2, but there’s only a “minuscule” chance that Horford is going to play. He’s been such a huge contributor on both ends of the floor in the playoffs. The good news is that Robert Williams was able to return to the lineup on Tuesday and he gave the Celtics 28 solid minutes of action. While I picked the Celtics to win the series, I wasn’t expecting them to be without Horford for two games and Smart for one game. 

I’m sure I’ll be betting on Boston in Games 3 and 4, but I’m going back to the Heat to cover this 3.5-point spread at home in Game 2. 

• Pick: Miami -3.5, Multiple Sportsbooks