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Eys Breakers: NBA Player Props Preview and Bets for Today

Keith Eyster Tue 3/8 11:44am PT
(Image Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports)

Sports betting expert Keith Eyster dives into analyzing NBA player props and explores bets to target Tuesday in his new article series “Eys Breakers.”

Hello and welcome!

As many of you know, player props are one of the hottest things around right now with multiple sources competing for our business. Make sure you are taking advantage of all the promos out there! 

I want to take a look at some of the great tools we have here at ScoresAndOdds and walk you through my process a bit when I am seeking out player props that have good value for today’s slate of games. 

The focus will be on NBA player props today.

NBA Props, First Glance

One of the first things I look at when breaking down props for a given slate is which teams have unique situations where we may be able to find value.

Oftentimes, the sportsbooks have not been aggressive enough in pricing players who may be running into more opportunities for a given game. 

The team situation that I want to focus on first today is the Phoenix Suns.

They have been without Chris Paul since Feb. 16 due to a fractured thumb.

Devin Booker entered health and safety protocols on Feb. 27 and has already been ruled out again for tonight.

Cameron Johnson exploded for 38 points against the Knicks four days ago, but he missed the last game due to a quad injury and has been ruled out again tonight.

That makes three key rotation pieces Phoenix will be playing without on Tuesday. 

Additionally, the Suns have a great matchup with the Orlando Magic, who have been playing at a fast pace this season. 

Staring At The Sun(s)

Let’s consider who may benefit from these absences.

Fortunately, we just saw a game from Phoenix with this exact situation, so we have a pretty good idea of what the rotations and roles may look like.

On Sunday, Phoenix dropped a high-scoring affair to Milwaukee 122-132.

The first thing I notice is DeAndre Ayton and Cameron Payne each took 19 shots.

Ayton was uber-efficient, making 14 field goals, while finishing with 30 points. Payne also shot well, making 9 field goals and posting 23 points.

The volume was up considerably from their season-long production as Ayton has averaged 11.5 field goal attempts per game, while Payne has averaged 10.1 attempts.

Each of their points props may be in play for us, considering the clear change in role with Booker, Paul and Johnson ruled out again tonight. Let’s take a look using the wonderful tools here at ScoresAndOdds:

It looks like we are getting slight value for the overs on each of these NBA player props. Ayton’s points line sits at 18.5 across the industry, while he is projected for 19.74 points at RotoGrinders.

We can easily see from the Odds Comparison we get the best line at FanDuel. 

Payne is showing even better value with a 17.5-point line at the sportsbooks and a 21.38 points projection at RotoGrinders. The best line is -110 at DraftKings. 

Is there anything else we should consider with the Suns injury situation?

Booker, Paul and Johnson are not huge contributors in the rebounding department, so we can rule that out.

Paul is among the league leaders in assists, and Booker saw a nice jump in assist rate when he took over point guard duties with Paul and Payne out.

Now, we have Booker out, but Payne is active again. Can we find value in a Payne assists prop? 

Nope.

It looks like the sportsbooks have reacted appropriately to Payne’s role as the primary point guard for the Suns.

He is showing an 8.5-assists line at sportsbooks with an 8.4-assists projection at RG. He finished last game against Milwaukee with 8 assists, so I think we can move on from this one. 

He’s On A Heater: An NBA Prop To Watch

There’s another situation worth watching in Oklahoma City.

Shai-Gilgeous Alexander has been on fire lately with Josh Giddey and Lu Dort out of the lineup.

Kenrich Williams, Ty Jerome, James Robinson-Earl, Derrick Favors and Mike Muscala remain out as well, while Isaiah Roby is questionable.

SGA has averaged a whopping 33.3 points per game, across a six-game sample since he returned from injury on Feb. 24.

The matchup against the Bucks may not be as difficult as you think. 

Milwaukee has been a great defense in recent years, but it appears they have taken a step backwards recently.

They rank 12th in defensive rating on the season allowing 109.7 points per 100 possessions.

But if we look at just their last 10 games, Milwaukee is all the way down at 26th in defensive rating with 116.7 points allowed per 100 possessions.

This looks like a great spot for SGA as the Thunder remain extremely short-handed. He will be asked to do it all once again.

Let’s take a look at the data and see if there is any value.

Yes.

It looks like we can get fantastic value on SGA’s points prop today!

His line sits at 26.5 points, while his projection at RotoGrinders is at 32.95 points – aligned with his 33.3 points per game average since his return. Lock that in. 

Another thing to consider is if SGA has been performing so well recently, who is seeing a decline in production?

The answer is Darius Bazley, who is averaging just 8.2 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.5 assists in the six games since SGA returned.

He will likely be matched up on Giannis for a big chunk of this game making it a really difficult spot. It looks like the RG projections agree.

RotoGrinders has him projected under both his points line and rebounds line, so we can go ahead and hit the under 19.5 points and rebounds for Bazley. 

I hope a little insight into identifying value in player props has been enjoyable for everyone.

To recap the findings from analyzing unique situations we may find on a given slate, here are the four player props I like for today: 

Please let me know if you have any feedback. If there is anything related to sports betting you would like to see in a future article, I would love to hear your suggestions.

Thank you all for taking the time to read and best of luck with your bets!