Eys Breakers: NBA Player Props Preview and Bets for Today
Sports betting expert Keith Eyster dives into analyzing NBA player props and explores bets to target Monday in his new article series “Eys Breakers.”
Welcome back everyone! The sports news is flying like crazy today! Multiple transactions in both the NFL and MLB, the NCAA Tournament is on the horizon later this week, and we have another great slate of NBA games to break down for this evening. This is certainly a great time of the year to be a sports fan!
Let’s kick off another exciting week in NBA betting by taking a look at some team situations and see if we may be able to find some good spots on this slate.
Two teams who have been playing short-handed for a while now jump out right away – Oklahoma City and Portland.
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City has basically been without Lu Dort and Josh Giddey since the All-Star Break. They have been missing several other lower-usage rotation pieces over that timeframe as well.
The one thing that has remained for them over that time period is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He has scored at least 29 points in eight of nine games since his return from injury. It feels like I write him up every time the Thunder play, but it has worked out very well to this point.
Again today, the points line for SGA is a bit low, considering his recent level of production. He also gets a plus matchup with a Charlotte team that ranks 3rd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating. He has seen an elite 35.2% usage rate with Dort and Giddey off the floor this season.
I will take him over 27.5 points as the official play, but there is value in his alternate lines of 30+ points and 35+ points at plus money as well.
What about the rest of OKC? I dug deeper into the rotation looking for another play with their plus matchup today.
Darius Bazley popped off for 29 points last night, but he has only seen 16.8% usage with this group. I do not trust him to be as aggressive as he was last night going forward.
Isaiah Roby is projecting well at RotoGrinders, but he has been dealing with injury and only played 16 minutes despite starting last night.
Tre Mann, Theo Maledon, Aleksej Pokusevski and Lindy Waters all attempted double-digit shot attempts.
Tre Mann’s 23.9% usage stands out, but his line sits at 14.5 points.
Mann has scored at least 15 points in only three of eight games since SGA returned, and two of those were exactly 15 points. I will pass on him as well. The matchup is great for these secondary Thunder pieces, but there just has not been enough consistency to take a shot here.
Portland
The other team I want to dive into today is the Portland Trail Blazers as Anfernee Simons will miss his 4th straight game. Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Justise Winslow, and others remain out as well.
Josh Hart was a primary target of mine in each of the three games Simons missed. He proceeded to shoot 2-12 for 6 points against Minnesota and went 2-11 for 5 points against Utah.
Hart finally showed up in a big way last game when he exploded for 44 points on 15-21 shooting against Washington. The expectation should lie somewhere in the middle of his two floor games and the ceiling game he just posted.
Hart’s points line sits at 17.5 today, while he projects for just over 20 points at RotoGrinders. I am willing to go right back to him in a great matchup against Atlanta. The Hawks have struggled on the defensive end all season with a defensive rating that ranks just 27th in the league.
Hart is another guy where I don’t mind a sprinkle on his plus money alternate lines. I wouldn’t go as high as 40+ points as his last game was an outlier with extremely efficient shooting, but 20+ points and 25+ points are definitely within his range of outcomes.
Brandon Williams is the other guy who has been seeing big-time usage with the absence of Anfernee Simons. He has posted a usage rate of 28.9% with Portland’s current group of available players.
He also has struggled a bit with his shot after posting back-to-back big games against Minnesota. Williams shot just 3-13 against Utah and 4-15 against Washington.
We can reasonably expect him to shoot better than he did in his last two games. The more important thing is the volume is still there. I like his chances to go over 15.5 points with the volume he has been putting up and factoring in the plus matchup against Atlanta.
Today’s Eys Breakers
That will wrap up today’s deeper look into two team’s current injury situations for tonight’s slate of games. We were able to identify good value in OKC and Portland with some guys who have been seeing increased volume as their team’s top scoring options. We ultimately landed on three solid plays:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 27.5 Points (-112, FanDuel)
- Josh Hart over 17.5 Points (-102, FanDuel)
- Brandon Williams over 15.5 Points (-112, FanDuel)
Thank you as always and I hope you all have a successful day. Good luck everyone!