Betting The NBA Playoffs: Picks, Odds and Predictions For Today (4/19/22)

ScoresAndOdds betting expert Derek Farnsworth provides in-depth analysis and best bets for the NBA playoffs! Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

One of the keys in betting playoff basketball is to not overreact to what we saw in the previous game in each series. The natural reaction is to trust our most recent memory of these teams, but a lot can change game to game. My plan is to stick to my thoughts before Game 1, unless there are injuries or something of note that could be useful moving forward. 

I will note that I didn’t get to watch much of the Game 1s on Saturday. I got to experience the pure joy of watching my son’s tee ball game followed by a few hours of doing taxes for friends and family. Rest assured, there was a cold beer waiting for me at the end of the day. Who am I kidding? I’m more of a seltzer fan these days *ducks*. 

Let’s dive into Tuesday’s betting picks!

Free NBA Betting Picks For Today

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat (Series: MIA 1-0)

The Hawks played their best basketball in the last two months of the season, but looked out of sorts in Game 1 against the Heat. Part of this had to do with the fact that Miami is one of the best defensive team in the league and part of this had to do with the fact that Clint Capela was unable to suit up. The Hawks finally got John Collins back from injury, but he was predictably limited (21 minutes). Unfortunately, Capela is expected to be out until next week at the earliest. 

The Heat struggled a bit after the all-star break, but they did enough to capture the top seed in the East. When healthy, they have been a top-10 teams on both ends of the floor this season. They were certainly dominant on Sunday, winning by 24 points and leading the Hawks in almost every significant stat category – offensive rating, defensive rating, turnovers, rebounding, etc. The crazy part is that they secured the blowout win despite getting only 27 points combined from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. 

The spread for Game 2 is up to 7.5 points. The favorites have performed well early in the playoffs, but that trend can’t continue for long. I am itching to bet on some underdogs, but the Hawks are a tough sell in this matchup. The Heat have done a tremendous job against Trae Young this season. In their five meetings, they have forced 29 turnovers. With Capela still out and with Miami’s role players likely to play well again at home, I will side with the Heat again.

• PICK: Miami -7.5, FanDuel

Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies (Series: MIN 1-0)

I can’t tell you how impressed I was with the Wolves in Game 1. They have been playing some great basketball over the last couple of months, but the Grizzlies were in even better form heading into the playoffs. Perhaps playing in the play-in tournament gave the Wolves a bit of an edge in the rust department. The fact that they scored 130 points against a defense like Memphis is impressive, especially when you consider the fact that they committed 17 turnovers.

The Grizzlies are now faced with what they will consider a must-win Game 2. They wouldn’t be completely dead going to Minnesota down 0-2, but it’s certainly not a tall task that they want to face. In Game 1, Memphis didn’t shoot the ball well, they struggled defensively, and they were out-rebounded 46-to-35. If we trust the season-long statistics for this team, those are typically areas of strength. 

The betting market is expecting the Wolves to run away with the series, as the Grizzlies are listed as 7-point favorites in Game 2. As noted in the series preview, the Grizzlies finished the regular season ahead of the Wolves in offensive rating, defensive rating, turnover percentage, and rebounding rate. I like them to bounce back in a big way here and even up the series. Much to my dismay, give me another favorite. 

• PICK: Memphis -7, PointsBet

New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns (Series: PHX 1-0)

The Pelicans made an impressive surge toward the end of the regular season to sneak into the play-in tournament. They beat the Spurs in their first play-in game and then went on the road and beat the Clippers to claim the eighth and final spot in the West. They got off to a slow start against the Suns in Game 1, but made a second-half push and nearly covered the 10-point spread. The Pelicans are healthy and have three very good players in Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Jonas Valanciunas. While their ceiling in this series is likely one or two wins, they can certainly keep games competitive. 

I was a tad worried about rust for the Suns, but they came out of the gates firing in the first half of Game 1. They went on to win the game with ease and ultimately did enough to cover the spread. They were by far the best team in the regular season and have all of the motivation in the world to avenge their loss in the finals a year ago. There’s really nothing bad to say about the Suns – they have elite scorers, they are a top five defensive team, and they have more depth than most. 

While I certainly expect the Suns to win Game 2, there’s plenty of opportunity for the Pelicans to cover this 9.5-point spread. The fact that the spread for Game 2 is lower than it was for Game 1 means the market has some faith in the Pelicans in this spot. As I’ve noted a few times, I’ve been itching to take some of the underdogs here early in the playoffs. This feels like a good spot to take the points with New Orleans. 

• PICK: New Orleans +9.5, Multiple Sportsbooks