NBA Playoffs: First Round Series Best Bets, Odds and Predictions

ScoresAndOdds betting expert Derek Farnsworth provides in-depth analysis and best bets for round one of the NBA playoffs! Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

After what felt like a 10-month regular season, everyone is excited for the NBA playoffs. We don’t have to grind injury reports, we don’t have to worry about teams tanking, and we get to see the best 16 teams in the league square off against each other. 

This may or may not be the most profitable betting venture, but my plan is to bet on every series and on every single game in the playoffs. The best part – I will be documenting every pick along the way. Whether you want to tail the plays or make some of your own, make sure to use our links in order to get the best offers from sportsbooks that you will find in the industry. 

This article will be broken into two parts – the four series that start on Saturday and the four series that start on Sunday. I will do a deep dive into the numbers, go over key matchups, provide relevant injury information and give my prediction for each series. I will also be giving my picks against the spread for Game 1 of each series. 

Free NBA Playoff Series Betting Picks

4. Dallas Mavericks vs. 5. Utah Jazz

The major story in this series is the availability of Luka Doncic. He is dealing with a calf injury (thankfully not the Achilles) and has already been listed as doubtful for Game 1. The best case scenario is that he’s able to suit up for Game 2, but that seems like a long-shot at this point. Even if he does tough it out, how effective is he going to be? 

The betting market doesn’t seem to think Doncic is going to play much or any at all in this series, as the Jazz are -300 favorites to advance to the second round. The positives for Dallas are that they brought in Spencer Dinwiddie at the trade deadline, they won their last two matchups against the Jazz during the regular season, and we saw this Utah team lose to the Clippers in the playoffs last season when they were missing their best player. 

The positives for the Jazz are that they are the healthier team, they are the deeper team, and they are better than the Mavericks on the offense and on the glass. Even though they underwhelmed in the second half of the season, they still finished with the third best point differential in the NBA. Let me preface my pick by saying I am from Utah and a small Jazz fan (betting and DFS have ruined all true allegiances to any team). If the Jazz can steal Game 1 on the road, it will be tough sledding for the Mavericks the rest of the series. 

SERIES PICKS:

• Series Prediction: Utah 4-1 
• Series Bet: Utah -300 (3 units)
• Game 1 Pick ATS: Utah -5

3. Golden State Warriors vs. 6. Denver Nuggets

There was concern about the availability of Stephen Curry in this series, but he is officially expected to suit up for Game 1. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are still expected to be without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter. This series should be a fun one and I could honestly see the home team winning every game. The Warriors finished the regular season with a 31-10 record at the Chase Center and the Nuggets finished the regular season with a 23-18 record at the Ball Arena. 

In terms of the numbers, the Nuggets surprisingly had the better offense during the regular season. It’s no surprise that they finished with a better rebounding rate and they did a better job than the Warriors at taking care of the ball. The Warriors were a much better defensive team (especially when Draymond Green was on the floor) and had a better point differential than the Nuggets during the regular season. 

The key for me in this series is the lack of help for Nikola Jokic. I expect him to put up massive numbers individually, but the Nuggets need another player or two to step up in these road games. It’s so much easier for role players to exceed expectations at home. Given the fact that the Warriors have home-court advantage, I will side with the favorite in this one. This statistic also sticks out like a sore thumb – the Warriors are 34-12 with Green in the lineup this season. 

This ends up being a long series, but the Warriors close the door in Game 7. 

SERIES PICKS:

• Series Prediction: Golden State 4-3
• Series Bet: Golden State -250 (2.5 units)
• Game 1 Pick ATS: Golden State -6.5

4. Philadelphia 76ers vs. 5. Toronto Raptors

In my humble opinion, this is the most intriguing series in the first round of the playoffs. The Sixers are still adjusting to James Harden being in the lineup and the Raptors were one of the best teams in basketball in the second half of the season. Many will point to a lack of depth with Toronto, but that’s typically not a big issue in the playoffs, especially in the first round. As long as there aren’t any injuries, we can expect all five starters from the Raptors to average 35+ minutes per game. 

If we look at the statistics from the regular season, the Sixers were better on the offensive end of the floor and had a slightly better point differential. The Raptors were better on the defensive end, they were better on the glass, and they committed fewer turnovers. Surprisingly, these were two of a handful of teams that were just as good or better on the road than they were at home. 

I would love to have a strong take on the series. The Sixers have the best two players on the floor, but the Raptors arguably have the next five best players. I honestly view this closer to a pick ‘em, so I will side with the underdog in the Raptors. However, my favorite bet of the series is for this to go six games (+180) or seven games (+205). If you bet both of these, all you need to cheer for is a long series. 

SERIES PICKS:

• Series Prediction: Toronto 4-2
• Series Bet: Toronto +154 (1 unit)
• Series Prop 1: Series to go 6 Games +180 (1 unit)
• Series Prop 2: Series to go 7 Games +205 (1 unit)
• Game 1 Pick ATS: Toronto +4.5 (1 unit)

2. Memphis Grizzlies vs. 7. Minnesota Timberwolves

On the surface, this should be one of the more entertaining matches in the first round of the playoffs. The Grizzlies and Wolves are both stacked with young talent, they both love to push the tempo, and they were two of the best teams in the NBA in the second half of the regular season. Memphis vaulted up to second in the standings, while Minnesota had to beat the Clippers to advance out of the play-in tournament. Both teams enter the series in good health. 

While many will view these teams as comparable given their similar style of play, the statistics suggest otherwise. The Grizzlies have the edge in this series on offense, on defense, on the glass, in the turnover battle, and in point differential. They have the best player on the floor in Ja Morant (at least in my opinion and in Player Efficiency Ratings) and they have a way to slow down their opponent’s best player. Over the last few years, Steven Adams has been one of the best low-post defenders in the game. 

It’s also worth noting that many of the players on the Grizzlies got their first postseason experience out of the way last season. They lost to the Jazz in five games, but were very competitive in that series. They have depth, they have a ton of talent, and they have home-court advantage. While many will see value in the Wolves, I will be hammering the Grizzlies in this series.

SERIES PICKS:

• Series Prediction: Memphis 4-1
• Series Bet: Memphis -330 (3 units)
• Game 1 Pick ATS: Memphis -7

I would love to have you join me for this ride all throughout the playoffs. The goal is to end with a profit, but it should be entertaining nonetheless. I am nothing if not transparent, so I will be keeping track of the profit or loss along the way. Be on the lookout for part 2 this weekend and then a daily betting article starting on Monday.