NBA Playoffs: First Round Series Best Bets, Odds and Predictions – Part 2

ScoresAndOdds betting expert Derek Farnsworth provides in-depth analysis and best bets for round one of the NBA playoffs! Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

Many advise to take the path of least resistance, but that is not my plan for the NBA playoffs. I am going to bet on every series, I am going to bet on every game, and I am going to mix in some NBA props along the way. The hope is to end with a profit, but the ultimate goal is to provide an entertaining article series that you can sweat alongside me. 

If you missed Part 1 of this article, you can check it out here!

Free NBA Playoff Series Betting Picks

3. Milwaukee Bucks vs. 6 Chicago Bulls

The biggest debate for me in this series is whether to bet the Bucks to win in four games or the Bucks in five games. The Bulls have talent on their roster, but they have been trending in the wrong direction over the last few months of the season. Do you want to hear how bad the Bulls have been since the All-Star break? There were a total of two teams with a worse net rating after the break – the Blazers and the Thunder. This means that over the last 20+ games, the Bulls were worse than the Lakers, the Magic, the Kings, the Pacers, and the Rockets. Do we really expect them to pull off a first-round upset of the defending champs?

If you look at the statistics above, you can see that the Bucks have the edge on offense, on defense, and on the glass. The Bulls have committed fewer turnovers than the Bucks, but they will need to do a lot more than secure the ball if they want to have a chance in this series. Unless the Pelicans beat the Clippers in the final play-in game, the Bulls will be the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential over the course of the regular season. There is very little point in betting a team at -1000 (multiple sportsbooks), but the premise of this article series is to bet on every series and I am obviously not putting any money on Chicago. 

To sweeten the pot, I’m also betting on the Bucks to win in four games and the Bucks to win in five games.

SERIES PICKS:

• Series Prediction: Milwaukee 4-1
• Series Bet: Milwaukee -1000 (3 units), DraftKings
• Series Prop 1: Milwaukee 4-0 +255 (1 unit)
• Series Prop 2: Milwaukee 4-1 +190 (1 unit)
• Game 1 Pick ATS: Milwaukee -10 (1 unit)

2. Boston Celtics vs. 7. Brooklyn Nets

The Celtics and their fans can’t be too happy about their draw in the first round of the playoffs. When a team secures the first or second seed in their conference, we usually expect them to have an easy path to the second round. To put this into perspective, the Bucks (-1000), the Grizzlies (-330, FanDuel), and the Suns are all massive favorites in their first-round matchups. The Celtics are barely favored against the Nets. The reasoning is simple – any team with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant has a chance in a seven-game series.

Looking at the statistics above, you’ll see that the Celtics have the edge over the Nets on defense, on the glass, in the turnover battle, and in point differential. The counter argument is that the Nets were a different team in the first half of the season, that they have battled injuries all year, and that they just recently got Kyrie Irving available for home games. These are all fair points and should be taken into consideration. However, I would like to point out that since the All-Star break, the Celtics are first in offensive rating, third in defensive rating, and first in point differential. 

I don’t like to bet against superstars in the playoffs and it’s certainly encouraging to see Bruce Brown step up the way he has over the last few weeks, but I see some serious value in the Celtics. They have more depth, they have more momentum, they have two superstars of their own in Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, and they have an elite on-ball defender in Marcus Smart that they can put on Irving. 

SERIES PICKS:

• Series Prediction: Boston 4-3
• Series Bet: Boston -130 (1.5 units)
• Game 1 Pick ATS: Boston -4

1. Miami Heat vs. 8. Atlanta Hawks

The Heat were able to secure the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but it felt like they were leaking oil at the end of the regular season. If we look strictly at the numbers after the All-Star break, the Heat were 15-8 with a net rating of +4.7 and the Hawks were 15-9 with a net rating of +4.3. The teams are clearly polar opposites, as the Hawks are one of the best offensive teams in basketball, while the Heat are one of the best defensive teams in basketball. The Hawks take better care of the ball, but the Heat are better on the glass. 

While these teams might be a little closer in talent than most believe, injuries are a big concern for the Hawks. John Collins has been out for more than a month, Lou Williams has missed significant time, and now Clint Capela has an injury to his knee. The Hawks might be competitive in many of these games, but the Heat have a proven closer in Jimmy Butler.

They also brought in Kyle Lowry for a long playoff run. I like this Hawks team, but there are too many red flags at the moment. I have a hard time seeing them winning a game in Miami and I could easily see the Heat stealing one in Atlanta. 

SERIES PICKS:

• Series Prediction: Miami 4-1
• Series Bet: Miami -370 (3 units)
• Game 1 Pick ATS: Miami -6.5

1. Phoenix Suns vs. 8. New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans deserve all the credit in the world. They made a splash at the trade deadline to bring in CJ McCollum and won 13 of their next 26 games to claim a spot in the play-in tournament. They made quick work of the Spurs and then went on the road and beat the Clippers to claim the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference playoff picture. Their reward – a matchup against the best team in basketball. 

The Suns lost three of their first four games of the season and the masses were ready to call it a championship hangover. They followed that up by going 63-15 the rest of the season to silence all of the critics. They have a Hall of Fame point guard in Chris Paul, they have one of the best scorers in basketball in Devin Booker, they have a solid two-way center in Deandre Ayton, they have an amazing supporting cast, and they have the hunger needed to make a deep playoff run. 

The only edge the Pelicans have in terms of the season-long statistics listed above is in the rebounding department. The Suns are better offensively, they are better defensively, and they commit fewer turnovers. Crazier things have happened in sports, but I don’t see a scenario where the Suns don’t take care of business in the first round. There’s no value in betting them at -1000, but I made a pact to bet on every series and every game, so my hands are tied.

SERIES PICKS:

• Series Prediction: Phoenix 4-0
• Series Bet: Phoenix -1000 (3 units)
• Game 1 Pick ATS: Phoenix -10

Now it’s time to sit back and sweat the first games of each series. I’ll be back Monday to break down each Game 2 on the schedule with my daily betting picks!