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Eys Breakers (3/25/22): NBA Props Preview & Best Bets Today

Keith Eyster Fri 3/25 10:35am PT
Donovan Mitchell makes today's best NBA prop bets
Image Credit: Imagn

NBA betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best prop bets to target Friday in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our PointsBet promo code to get $2000 in free bets today!

The NCAA Tournament rolls on and we will be left with just four teams by the time Monday gets here. Congrats to Duke, Villanova, Arkansas and Houston for punching their tickets to the Elite 8 last night. 

Kansas is the tournament’s only remaining number one seed. If they fail to make it out of the weekend, we would have our first Final Four since 2011 with no number one seeds. 

The PGA Tour and NASCAR will both be in Austin, TX this weekend for WGC-Dell Match Play and COTA road course, respectively. 

UFC in Columbus, OH. Formula 1 in Saudi Arabia. There is definitely a wealth of options for our entertainment this weekend.

It all starts tonight with the NBA. We have a 7-game slate at our disposal. I hope to break down a few teams and identify some NBA player props for us to target to get the weekend off to a great start. 

Best NBA Prop Bets Today

Let’s take a look at the Utah Jazz. They head to Charlotte to take on a fast-paced Hornets team that ranks 23rd in defensive rating. Bojan Bogdanovic remains out with a calf injury. 

One man stands above the rest for Utah during this stretch without Bogdanovic. Donovan Mitchell has seen a 3.2% increase in usage – to a very healthy 36.6% usage rate – and averaged 32.42 points per 36 minutes with Bogdanovic off the floor this season.

Rudy Gobert has also seen a slight bump of 1.3% usage and a bump in his per 36 minute scoring average of 1.22 points without Bogdanovic. He crushed Charlotte for 23 points and 21 rebounds in their meeting back in December. 

Since he has the upside to go off for 20+ in either category, I like targeting Gobert’s Points + Rebounds line. We can get it at 28.5 at multiple online sportsbooks.

Golden State Warriors vs. Atlanta Hawks

Let’s shift focus over to the Atlanta Hawks. They also have been playing without one of their key starters for an extended period of time. John Collins has been out since March 11 with multiple injuries and he remains out tonight. 

Trae Young has picked up his production in the absence of Collins with a 35.5% usage rate and 32.06 points per 36 minutes. The matchup is not ideal for Young against Golden State who owns the NBA’s 2nd best defensive rating, but he is an elite scorer who can succeed in any matchup. 

Young has scored over 40 points in three of six games since Collins’ injury. I like him to score over 27.5 points tonight despite the tough matchup. 

On the other side of this game, Golden State will be without Stephen Curry for an extended period of time. 

Jordan Poole has seen a huge 5.3% bump in usage and has averaged 24.72 points per 36 minutes with Curry off the floor this season. 

Poole has scored 29, 28, 26 and 30 points in four games since Curry’s injury. This is a great matchup for him against Atlanta who has slid all the way to 26th in defensive rating. Give me Poole over 23.5 points as my favorite bet of the day. I will also add a half-unit bet on his alternate line of 30+ points at FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Klay Thompson has been shooting crazy volume, but he has struggled from beyond the three-point line. I will pass on him until I see some better shooting performances.

Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trail Blazers

I didn’t want to do it again, but I can’t help myself. Back to Portland we go. 

They have the best matchup in basketball against Houston tonight – although Portland is trying to challenge that with their dreadful defense lately. Houston plays at the second fastest pace in the league and ranks dead last in defensive rating. 

Chauncey Billups threw a wrench in our Brandon Williams plan on Wednesday by starting 28-year old journeyman, Kris Dunn, over the promising rookie. We will have to avoid this situation due to the uncertainty of the starting lineup for now. 

There is still some value to be found in Portland, however. They remain without Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Anfernee Simons and Josh Hart. We can add Justise Winslow to the host of missing role players as he left Wednesday with a calf injury and has been ruled out tonight. 

Drew Eubanks continues to hold down a significant role. Over the last seven games, Eubanks has averaged 31.9 minutes, 16.1 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists. 

Eubanks averages 27.7 PRA per game over his last seven games. He should not have any trouble hitting that average tonight in this phenomenal matchup. 

The other guy who has been producing consistently is Ben McLemore. His minutes have been all over the place, but the 26.7% usage rate should not be ignored.  

He scored 23 points in only 20 minutes on Wednesday. The blowout impacted his minutes and I think he sees significantly more time in a close game. His props have been slow to release, but, like Wednesday, if they open below 14.5 points I will jump on it immediately. 

NBA Props Card — Friday, March 25

We found several great props to target today breaking down the team’s injury situations. There is sure to be more news today, so make sure to stay informed – New York and Miami are two specific situations to monitor. Let’s recap what we have so far:

Thank you for checking out my thoughts on today’s NBA slate. Let’s make it a profitable one. Good luck today and throughout the weekend!