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Eys Breakers (4/1/22): NBA Props Preview & Best Bets Today

Keith Eyster Fri 4/1 11:27am PT
Jalen Green makes today's best NBA prop bets.
(Image Credit: Imagn)

NBA betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best prop bets to target Friday, April 1st in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

As the calendar flips to April, I want to recap results from last month. We finished March at 30-21, +7.59 units. There was only one day all month where we lost over a full unit, and the best day of the month checked in at +4 units. Overall, a successful month so let’s keep the momentum rolling. 

We have another big NBA slate today where there should be plenty of opportunity for basketball bettors to find value, starting with the Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets.

Today’s NBA Prop Betting Preview

Sacramento Kings vs. Houston Rockets Props

Sacramento and Houston are running back their offensive-friendly game from Wednesday. We saw a competitive game with 239 total points. Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green and Davion Mitchell cashed tickets for us. 

The sportsbooks have definitely corrected to a degree on this game, but there is still some opportunity here. 

This is an elite game environment with two teams who play fast – Houston is 2nd in pace, Sacramento is 8th – and play very little defense – Houston ranks 29th in defensive rating, Sacramento ranks 27th.  

Christian Wood, Eric Gordon and Dennis Schroder remain out for Houston. Alperen Sengun is listed as questionable again after missing the last game. 

Jalen Green put up a healthy 32 points to easily beat his 20.5 points line on Wednesday. 

His line got a 2-point bump for tonight’s game, but that is still not enough. He has surpassed 22 points in each of his last four games. Green has averaged 24.43 points per-36 minutes without Wood, Gordon and Schroder. Lock him in again. 

Kevin Porter Jr. went absolutely nuts on Wednesday finishing with 30 points, 12 assists and 12 rebounds.

Porter has averaged 34.3 PRA per-36 minutes without Wood, Gordon and Schroder this season – 20.7 points, 6.5 rebounds and 7.1 assists. Given the outstanding matchup and his recent form, this one makes sense again. 

On the Kings side of this game, De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis remain out. That means the Davion Mitchell show rolls on. 

Mitchell cleared a 28.5 points, assists line for us on Wednesday by scoring 24 points and dishing out 8 assists. He also grabbed 5 rebounds in the game.

Looking at Odds Compare, his points prop has the best value at BetMGM. They are a point below the market at 21.5 points. Mitchell has scored over 21 points in four of his last five games, and he scored exactly 21 points in the other game. 

I have interest in his points, rebounds, assists line since he contributes in all categories, but the discount on his points line makes that the play. 

Damian Jones has stepped up his offensive production recently and Houston struggles against the Center position. Jones posted 24 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists on Wednesday against Houston. 

The assists were a bit of an outlier in production so we will stick with his points, rebounds line. Jones has averaged 19.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per-36 minutes without Fox, Sabonis, Holmes and Davis (Hield and Haliburton were removed as well since they were traded.)  

He is unlikely to see the 34 minutes of playing time he saw Wednesday, but he projects above this line with just a 28 minutes played projection at RotoGrinders. 

Detroit Pistons vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Props

Let’s shift focus over to the Oklahoma City Thunder who continue to play without basically half of their roster. They host a Detroit team that ranks 24th in defensive rating and may have some incentive to tank tonight as well. 

Theo Maledon has led OKC with a 27% usage rate since they went into full on tank-mode.

He has beaten this 17.5-points line in each of his last four games with an average of 21.5 points per game. Give me the over in this great matchup. 

The largest increase in usage with the current group of available players for OKC belongs to Aaron Wiggins. He has seen a 4.7% bump up to a 23% usage rate.

He finished with exactly 13 points against Atlanta, but he dropped 28 points the game before against Portland. He has a chance to crush this number if he is even a little bit aggressive with his shot.

Best NBA Player Props Today – April 1

As I wrap this up, the Los Angeles Clippers and Milwaukee Bucks have ruled a bunch of guys out. I have a ton of interest in that game and will be closely monitoring where their player props open up. Here are the targets we have identified so far: 

Thank you for reading another breakdown of the day’s NBA slate. Good luck with your bets today!