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Eys Breakers (3/28/22): NBA Props Preview & Best Bets Today

Keith Eyster Mon 3/28 11:16am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

NBA betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best prop bets to target Monday in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our PointsBet promo code to get $2000 in free bets today!

Let’s kick off another week of sports betting by breaking down some NBA teams who will be in action tonight. There is sure to be plenty of injury-related news across the NBA today, and we already have some key guys listed out. 

Grizzlies In Question

Let’s start with Memphis where Ja Morant remains out with a knee injury. Jaren Jackson Jr. is also listed as questionable to play with a thigh injury.

Jackson Jr. owns the highest usage rate (30.4%) for Memphis with Morant off the floor, so his absence would have a high impact. There are a few spots where the lines look good if Jackson plays, and they would be excellent value if he sits. 

The second highest usage rate with Morant off the floor belongs to Dillon Brooks at 29.3%. His playing time has been in the 25-minute range since he has been working back from injury as well with the exception of 3/23 where he played over 33 minutes. 

He has scored 21, 20 and 19 points in three games since Morant’s injury. I will wait for the Jackson news before targeting Brooks due to the uncertainty around his playing time. 

I am comfortable targeting some other guys for Memphis before we get the JJJ news. Desmond Bane falls into that category. 

He has a healthy 24.9% usage rate with Morant off the floor and has been in good form recently. He has averaged 24.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 5.5 assists in the four games since Morant’s injury. 

I am going to go ahead and lock in the over on Bane’s points before the Jackson news as he has surpassed 20.5 points in three of four games. Bane sees a 5.1% bump to 28.5% usage with Jackson off the floor, so this is great value if Jackson ends up sitting out. 

Bane’s assist prop also looks low. I noted his 5.5 assists averaged over his last four games, and he has averaged 4.6 assists per 36 minutes on the season without Morant. Taking Bane over 3.5 assists at plus money is great value. 

Tyus Jones has stepped into the starting lineup for Morant and played well. He has averaged 8.0 assists in the four games since Morant’s injury despite logging only 5 assists in 25 minutes two games ago in a blowout of Indiana. 

Jones has 10, 10 and 7 assists in the other three games so I feel good locking him in for over 6.5 assists tonight. 

Tankfest 2022

The final game on the slate this evening is a tankfest between Oklahoma City and Portland. 

Oklahoma City will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Josh Giddey and a host of others. Portland has been atrocious on the defensive end ranking dead last in the NBA over their last 15 games. 

Tre Mann is the usage leader when playing with the available players for OKC tonight. He checks in at an elite 33.0% usage rate over a 102.5-minute sample this season. Mann has averaged 23.2 points per-36 minutes in that sample. 

RotoGrinders projections agree this line is far too low with Mann’s projection sitting above 23 points scored in this matchup. 

Theo Maledon is second in usage among this group with a 27.7% usage rate. He entered the starting lineup with SGA out for the last two games and scored 25 and 20 points. 

Maledon’s line is low as well with his RG projection checking in above 17 points. The over makes sense as well for him given the matchup. 

Oklahoma City has really fallen off on the defensive end as well as they rank 28th over their last 15 games. However, Portland has been awful on the offensive end and their rotation has been all over the place. 

We have successfully targeted some of their props over the last couple weeks, but the situation has become even messier. The addition of Kris Dunn has cut into Brandon Williams’ role at times, and Ben McLemore is not seeing consistent enough minutes to target. 

The guy who has seen the most consistent role is Drew Eubanks, but his props have been sufficiently elevated where he is not a target either despite Trendon Watford being added to the list of unavailable players. I will probably pass on them today with so much uncertainty around their rotation.  

NBA Props Card — Monday, March 28th

These last couple weeks of the season are sure to be filled with plenty of injury news, in addition to rest and tanking situations, and there will be plenty of value to be found. We were able to break down the situations in Memphis and Oklahoma City today to identify the following player props: 

Thank you for reading and best of luck today!