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Eys Breakers (3/30/22): NBA Props Preview & Best Bets Today

Keith Eyster Wed 3/30 10:48am PT
Davion Mitchell has NBA player props to target tonight.
(Image Credit: Imagn)

NBA betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best prop bets to target Wednesday, March 30th in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our BetMGM bonus code to get a $1000 free bet today!

Please allow me a moment to tilt last night’s incredible Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia game for a moment. I wrote up Joel Embiid’ points as a premium pick for ScoresAndOdds yesterday. In addition to the straight bet, I had him in a same game parlay (all legs had hit but Embiid) and I had his alternate points lines as well. 

With Philly trailing by 2 points, Embiid attempts to tie the game and Giannis is called for goaltending. Embiid is credited with his 30th and 31st points of the game to cash the over, or so we thought. 

Upon review, it was a clean block. Milwaukee won the game with Embiid finishing at 29 points. Those two points cost me multiple units and a chance at even more with his alt lines. Such is life. Beats like that are always going to be a part of this. 

Good news! We have another massive 11-game NBA slate on tap for today. Looking for spreads, lines, and totals? Check out our NBA odds comparison for every game.

Today’s NBA Prop Betting Preview

Houston Rockets vs. Sacramento Kings Props

The first game I want to look at is the Houston Rockets vs. Sacramento Kings. 

This game has serious OKC vs. Portland vibes from a couple days ago. We have two tanking teams who play fast and have no interest on the defensive end of the court. 

Houston plays at the second fastest pace in the league, while Sacramento plays eighth fastest. They both rank bottom three in defensive rating as well with Houston at 29th and Sacramento 28th. 

They are both playing short-handed as well. Houston will be without Christian Wood, Dennis Schroder and Eric Gordon. Alperen Sengun is listed as questionable as well. 

NBA Prop Projections Today

We can see via RotoGrinder’s CourtIQ tool, Jalen Green gets the biggest usage bump (3.8%) with Wood, Schroder and Gordon off the floor. The 27.5% usage rate and his excellent recent form give me interest in his points prop. 

Green has surpassed 20 points in three straight games and he has averaged 23.43 points per-36 minutes with the current group of available players. If Sengun were to miss the game, Green would get an additional bump. Lock this one in. 

Kevin Porter Jr. is next on the list with per-36 minute averages of 19.15 points, 5.52 rebounds and 6.26 assists. He is coming off a monster 26-9-7 line against San Antonio two days ago. 

I wanted his PRA prop, but his assists prop line is actually up at 7.5 which is a little high compared to the data. 

RotoGrinder’s projections have him projected above both his points line and rebounds line, so that is the better value, in my opinion. We saw the upside with 9 boards in the last game. It feels weird leaving the assists out since he has been a strong contributor in the category, but it appears the books have adjusted properly. 

Jae’Sean Tate is the final Houston guy I want to look into. His 17.25 points and 8.24 rebounds per-36 minutes with Wood, Schroder and Gordon off the floor are well above his prop lines today. 

I will stick with Points + Rebounds for Tate. Again, Sengun still remains questionable, and Tate’s rebounds, in particular, would receive a big boost if he misses this game. 

Let’s flip over to the Sacramento side of this game. De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are out for this one. 

Davion Mitchell has taken over the Kings’ backcourt with Fox injured and Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield traded to Indiana. Mitchell struggled a bit in his first game without Fox, but he has been on fire since then. 

Over his last four games, Mitchell has averaged 24.0 points and 8.5 assists. Those games included two difficult matchups against Phoenix and Miami as well. Houston is… well, we will just say not anywhere near the caliber of those teams. 

I took his points, assists line over 28.5 early this morning. It looks like it has been heavily juiced in most places or moved to 29.5. I still like him to go over 29.5 PA with his recent form and an outstanding matchup.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Dallas Mavericks Props

The final situation I want to look into is Cleveland. They have a difficult matchup with Dallas, but they are missing two key big men in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. 

Allen has been out for nearly a month, while Mobley left last game after an ankle injury and has been ruled out for tonight. 

Kevin Love saw 32 minutes in the game Mobley left early and should see similar playing time in this one. His production has been phenomenal with Allen and Mobley off the court this season. Love has averaged 26.7 points and 13.3 rebounds per-36 minutes in a 335-minutes sample without the two big men. 

The minutes have been inconsistent this season, and the matchup adds a little bit of a risk, but Love could absolutely smash this number if he gets the playing time. 

Lauri Markkanen is the other guy who could benefit from Mobley’s absence. He has already stepped up his production since Allen’s injury. In the eleven games without Allen, Markkanen is averaging 18.09 points and 6.72 rebounds per game. 

Markkanen was beating this line consistently before the Mobley injury, so the matchup will not scare me off here. His role should be even more secure now. 

Best NBA Props Today – March 30th

That will do it for today’s games. The news will continue to roll in and the value will continue to open up. Be ready to take advantage. Let’s recap the player props we have so far: 

Thanks for reading another breakdown of the day’s NBA slate. Good luck with your bets today!