NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Tips & Predictions From Our Experts
It’s hard to believe that March Madness has arrived.
The stakes are high, the crowds are loud and the national spotlight is shining directly onto 68 teams who have dreams of cutting down nylon nets in April.
It’s been a fantastic NCAAB season on ScoresAndOdds, much thanks to three of our experts who have been contributing a bulk of premium picks and analysis – Alex Hardin (Feartheturtle), Erik Beimfohr (ebeimfohr) and Jon Schiller (Varncass).
Let’s ask the experts for their insight, advice and trends to keep an eye on heading into the big dance!
What surprised you the most with the tournament seeding?
Feartheturtle: At this point, nothing really surprises me with how they seed, but I’m still a bit surprised to see both Iowa and Houston as 5-seeds, as I thought they would be a bit higher. It’s especially odd, considering Providence being a 4-seed, which is a total joke.
Ebeimfohr: I probably shouldn’t have been surprised, but the total disrespect to the Mountain West still shocked me. They have 3 top-31 teams in KenPom (plus Wyoming at 58), and their highest seed is Colorado St. as a 6, while San Diego St. and Boise St. (similar KenPom to CSU) are on the 8 line. The conference as a whole is very underrated and extremely dangerous in the tournament.
Varncass: The fact that Saturday and Sunday’s results were almost ignored completely. Tennessee, as a 3 behind Duke was wild, and Iowa at 5, considering the end of their season, is outright disrespectful. Iowa and Houston could be two of the best 5-seeds of all time.
What is your favorite opening round bet against the spread?
Feartheturtle: If you could get Georgia State at 27 or better, it would be that, but it’s moved at least 4 points by now, which to me is a pass. Beyond that, I really think this is a terrible spot for Creighton against San Diego State.
I like the Aztecs -2.5 (DraftKings) a good bit, as the Blue Jays are really going to struggle offensively without a true point guard after Nembhard went down a few weeks back.
Ebeimfohr: Georgia St. +27.5 was immediately bet down after it opened, but that was my favorite initial spot with Georgia St. being one of the best 16 seeds I can remember. Beyond that, I think it’s Chattanooga +8.5. Chattanooga is REALLY good, and KenPom has this as just a 5-point game.
As good as Illinois is, they never beat anyone of note outside of the B1G, and they have flaws in both their sketchy guard play and ability to defend the pick-and-roll with Kofi Cockburn. The Mocs are extremely talented, and have both the guard play (Malachi Smith/David Jean-Baptisti) and bigs (Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa) to deal with high major teams like Illinois.
Varncass: Ohio State +1.5 – I think that a lot of people are going to be on Loyola here, and I will be backing the Buckeyes. While Ohio State struggled down the stretch, they also played in the much tougher conference and have the better overall player in E.J. Liddell.
Aher Uguak is a good defensive player, but I do not see anyone on Loyola who can stop Liddell. Loyola lost 5 games in a much weaker conference than the Big 10, and a lot of their predictive metrics are based on outlier performances – their 30 point win over Northern Iowa and their 50-point drubbing of Evansville made the analytics love them. The fact that every loss was close also helps them in the metrics, and they are an overrated analytical team here without Porter Moser and Cameron Krutwig.
What is your favorite opening round game total bet?
Feartheturtle: I like the Iowa/Richmond over 150, as I think its 3-4 points too low. Iowa is scoring 80+ here, as I see no way Richmond can slow them down. The Hawkeyes are fine with playing a lot of ole’ defense if they are playing from ahead.
Ebeimfohr: I was surprised to see the number on the Ohio St./Loyola game be as high as it is. We have two efficient offenses, but also two very slow tempo teams, and an elite Loyola defense. I suspect Loyola will struggle a bit to score, even against a flawed Ohio St defense, similar to how they did against teams like Michigan St. and Auburn early in the year.
In a must-win atmosphere, against a P5 school, I suspect Loyola slows it down even more than usual here, and I would be shocked to see this played in the 70s.
Varncass: Richmond/Iowa over 150 is my favorite play right now. There are a decent amount of under leans, but I just cannot see how Richmond stops the Hawkeyes. This offense is running at an absurd clip over the last couple of months and Richmond is one of the worst defenses in the tournament.
Keegan Murray is the hardest player in the country to defend and Richmond just doesn’t have the personnel to keep up. Can Jacob Gilyard and Tyler Burton score enough for Richmond against that stingy Iowa defense to get over 150 here? I think they can. Richmond relies on a Princeton-style offense, with a lot of cuts and back-door action, and Iowa is very lazy on defense.
What longshot outright has the best odds to win the title?
Feartheturtle: If I was looking for one team at 100-1 or greater, I would probably go with Loyola Chicago. While they likely won’t make it through the first weekend, 150-1 is not terrible and they will have a reasonable chance of competing against anyone in their region.
Ebeimfohr: Murray St. is 27th in KenPom, but they sit 33rd in futures odds to win the title behind the likes of Michigan, Marquette and other inferior teams.
Their draw is about as bad as you could have hoped for with San Francisco in the first round, with Kentucky likely looming in the second. But they’re flat out too good to be near the bottom of the odds list, and easily would have been a popular pick to make a run with a better draw. They’re talented enough to get by these early tough opponents, and if they do, they’re a serious contender.
Varncass: I am not sure how long the long-shot needs to be, but Houston (28-1) is kind of crazy. The Cougars are the fourth-best team according to KenPom and the 2nd best team according to BartTorvik, but they have only the 14th best odds to win the tournament.
Sure, being a 5-seed hampers them a little bit and they have a tough draw against a good UAB team in the first round, but they will likely only be a couple-point dog against Arizona and would be favored against any other team but Gonzaga and maybe Kentucky. If you want something really long, I do not hate Saint Mary’s at 120-1 (BetMGM).
They are the 16th best team in KenPom, 17th best team in BartTorvik and have beaten Gonzaga this year. They have a reliable PG in Kuhse, don’t turn the ball over, play fundamental defense and rebound the ball extremely well. They are unlikely to be blown out, so just a few good flips late and you could see them making a deep run.
Which 12-seed, or higher, has the best chance for an opening round upset?
Feartheturtle: The 12+ seed with the actual best chance for an opening round upset has to be South Dakota State in what I see as a coin-flip opener. Providence is a team I expected to be overseeded by a good margin and a prime candidate for an early upset, even before the brackets were released.
Ebeimfohr: I mentioned Chattanooga above, so I’ll pivot to South Dakota St. here. They might end up as the single most popular “upset” pick from a high seed in the history of March Madness. Providence had a great year, but it has almost become a meme with how much they’ve over-performed expectations based on analytics, luck, etc.
Meanwhile, South Dakota St. likely would have been a popular mid major no matter their draw, as they’re an extremely talented and experienced squad that completely ran through the Summit League this year. They’re very short underdogs to Providence, and KenPom has it as a 2 point game, so they’re extremely live dogs.
Varncass: We have two of the best 5 seeds of all time – Houston and Iowa who have bigger spreads than two of the 4 seeds in Arkansas (vs Vermont) and Providence (vs South Dakota State). While I like South Dakota State against a team in Providence who have been clutching their rabbits foot all year, I will go with Vermont over Arkansas.
Vermont is an extremely technical team who gets a ton of their points around the rim, while having two great three-point shooters in Ben Shungu and Ryan Davis. Davis can match up well with Jaylin Williams, and the Vermont D prevents interior baskets, where Arkansas gets a ton of their production.
This Vermont team is also the #1 defensive rebounding team in the Nation. An Arkansas miss is generally going to be a one-and-done. Considering Arkansas is a bad three-point shooting team, and get a good number of points on the offensive glass, I see Vermont being a very tough matchup. This one is likely to go down to the wire.
Which #1 seed has the toughest draw and why?
Feartheturtle: While I think the East is the strongest region overall, I don’t think Baylor’s path is the toughest. I really see the strength of the East in the bottom of the bracket (meaning they will only have to play one of those teams). I think Arizona actually has the toughest path for 1-seeds, as it will get Seton Hall or TCU (who I think is pretty dangerous) in round 2, then likely one of Illinois or Houston in the Sweet 16, both of which I think are under-seeded.
Ebeimfohr: Definitely Baylor. Kentucky has a case as the 2nd best team in the country overall, and they are the 2-seed in their region. A UNC team that just knocked off Duke at Cameron potentially awaits in the 2nd round, and both St. Mary’s and UCLA are not fun opponents in the Sweet 16. St. Mary’s has already knocked off Gonzga this year, and we saw what UCLA can do at their peak last tournament. Most of the best mid majors in the country are in this region (Murray, San Fran, etc.), and you even have talented teams like Texas and Purdue. Insane region.
Varncass: Baylor or Arizona, but I will go with Baylor. UNC is inconsistent, it has the ability to knock off the Bears. Next, there’s a potential matchup with last year’s darling, UCLA, in the Sweet 16. It doesn’t get easier, as most of the teams in the bottom half of the bracket like Purdue and Kentucky are extremely good. Baylor was the worst 1-seed, and got the hardest draw – seems fair.
Who’s your favorite “contrarian” team to send to the Final 4 (or championship) in a large-field bracket contest?
Feartheturtle: As annoying as it is to say, I think that’s UCLA for me. They have been managing this team like an NBA squad the last month, giving guys nights off because of “injuries” or “suspensions,” but it seems they are finally healthy. There was no shame in them losing a close game against Arizona in the PAC12 tourney. They have experience, depth, and not the worst draw possible. I think most people will have Baylor coming out of that portion of the bracket by default, but if they end up facing UCLA in that game, Baylor is likely just a very slight favorite. I think UCLA is sneaky.
Ebeimfohr: Tennessee. The SEC tourney champs are interestingly getting zero hype despite a strong draw. Villanova is always strong, but they’re probably the least-scary team of the top seeds, and the other top seeds in the region have their own flaws. Arizona may be without Kerr Kriisa, Houston obviously lost Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark earlier this year, and Illinois showed their issues in the conference tournament. That just leaves the 7th overall KenPom team in Tennessee as a bet not enough people want to make for the Final 4.
Varncass: Texas Tech. This team has received absolutely no praise this year, and gets the weakest 2 seed in Duke. With nearly everyone likely to pencil Gonzaga into the Final 4, you can gain massive leverage with a Tech team, who will certainly be under-owned as a Final 4 team.
The only way to defeat this Gonzaga team is to stop them from scoring at the rim. Who gave up the least amount of points inside the three point line in the country? Texas Tech. While Gonzaga should make the Final 4, they have gone from no one believing in them, to everyone assuming they are a lock for it. I don’t buy this Gonzaga team being better than last year’s team, and this tournament feels way more wide open than last year.
Final 4 prediction?
Feartheturtle: Gonzaga / Kentucky / Villanova / Kansas
Ebeimfohr: Gonzaga / Kentucky / Tennessee / Kansas
Varncass: Gonzaga/Kentucky/Arizona/Auburn
Do you have a favorite statistic to weigh in handicapping tournament matchups/predictions?
Feartheturtle: With so many teams and such a wide-range of talent, it’s sometimes tough to lean fully into statistics when comparing two teams. I think a lot of college basketball handicapping is using analytics but also accounting for some more subjective elements of matchups. Usually, for an underdog, I want them to have really strong guard play, with experience – which is one of those items that sticks out to me.
Ebeimfohr: Not particularly. I think college basketball is such a unique game with wildly different nuances to each team and each matchup, so I find that it’s more advantageous to consider each matchup through its own specific lense. I lean more towards the analytics, specifically KenPom and BartTorvik, but if there is something very matchup driven between two teams I am also willing to deviate away from those numbers to find an edge.
Varncass: In general, I tend to work with stylistic advantages/disadvantages, especially what does the defense try to take away or give up when betting individual games. However, the most fun I have betting teams is to try to find the teams most likely to pull Cinderella runs. When you look for a small school who is likely to pull the upset as a big underdog, you want stats that are going to increase the variance of the game – the most important three stats are defensive TO%, 3point %, and 3 point attempt %.
Your underdog is likely overmatched on both sides of the court – you want them to be able to get easy baskets in transition, and make big runs on their opponent by being able to shoot the three and shooting a lot of them. Here’s the depressing part – no underdog team fits these categories perfectly this year.
Championship game and winner prediction?
Feartheturtle: I have Gonzaga over Kansas in the final, creating a very tough scene for the “bUt ThEy DoNt PlAy AnYoNe” crowd. While they don’t have the surefire NBA talent at guard, like they did last year with Jalen Suggs, I think you could argue they have more stability this year with Bolton and Nembhard (who I think is very underrated). When you combine that with freak-show beanpole Chet Holmgren and elder statesman Drew Timme, that is a recipe for lifting the championship trophy.
Ebeimfohr: The draw is really brutal, but I can’t go away from Kentucky now. I have been on this team for basically the entire year, and I think the combination of Oscar Tshiebwe on the interior with an elite defense and the emergence of TyTy Washington makes them a March monster. The other side of the bracket is a bit weaker, so I’m going to say Tennessee sneaks by Kansas in the Final 4 to make an SEC rematch in the title game. Kentucky wins this one, 76-71.
Varncass: Gonzaga over Arizona. These have been the best two teams all year long, and I don’t think the Kriisa injury matters for Arizona if he returns or not. Pelle Larsson and Justin Kier are arguably improvements over Kriisa and Arizona’s offense + interior defensive combo is lethal.
While I think that Gonzaga is vulnerable (more so than last year) and Texas Tech is a fantastic leverage play in brackets, Gonzaga still has the best chance to win the title of any team, and is the default play here if you aren’t trying to go contrarian. Even the people who complain about Gonzaga not playing anyone are kind of in a bind considering how good the WCC was this year – Gonzaga WAS tested down the stretch.
As a fan, what game or storyline are you excited to watch unfold the most?
Feartheturtle: I am most excited to see Murray St. and San Francisco in the opening round. Both teams are very fun to watch, have had excellent seasons, and show that mid-major basketball is alive and well. While it’s a bummer that these two teams got matched up against each other so early, it is cool that at least one will be advancing to the weekend to play Kentucky in what could be dicey spot for them (which I expect Kentucky to win, but not by much).
Ebeimfohr: My #take on this season is that it’s arguably as wide open as it has ever been, so that’s what I’m most fascinated to see. Even this Gonzaga team that everyone agrees is the top team in the country has had its own hiccups over the course of the season. Every team has at least minor flaws, and there are a ton of higher seeded and mid major teams that are extremely talented and dangerous. I suspect we see a ton of chaos.
Varncass: I am excited to see the entire tournament because of how wide open it should be – while there might not be a ton of chaos in the first round, I am expecting some pretty crazy results in the 2nd round and sweet 16 and I think we will get some wild Final 4 teams. The first round game I am most interested in is Michigan State vs. Davidson with Foster Loyer playing his previous team, in what should be a fantastic game between two great three point shooting teams.
Any other notes or interesting angles?
Feartheturtle: While there will be mass chaos in this tournament, I still expect the Final 4 to be rather chalky with 1 and 2 seeds. If you are in a smaller office pool, or really anything under 100 entries, I think it is to your benefit to stay with the top seeds in your elite eight and let everyone else get a bit too cute.
Ebeimfohr: Just piggybacking on the last take, but I think in brackets and in betting (or DFS), being open to embracing the chaos of the tournament is going to be helpful more often than not. We saw chaos play out just this past week in the conference tournaments, and now we have the best of the best all squaring off, and yet the market typically all swings in the same direction.
Varncass: You will hear a lot about the 5-12 upsets, but it won’t happen this year. Houston, Iowa, St. Mary’s and UConn are 4 of the best 5 seeds and all should win easily. The 4-13 line is much more interesting to me, but I think the first round ends up relatively chalky. Other than that, I think Gonzaga is well over-owned in brackets as they will be considered the default favorite here, but Boise/Memphis is no walk in the park, UConn/Arkansas both have good interior defense and Texas Tech/Duke both have the personnel to challenge them.
It’s a wrap!
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Good luck during the tournament and may the ScoresAndOdds be on your side!